131 Greenhurst Village Dr · Lakewood, NY 14701

$20,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · Manufactured public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1979 $21/sqft · 18% above area Est $17k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained and affordable, this 2 bedroom, 1 bath mobile home in Greenhurst Village offers easy one-level living. Inside you’ll find a spacious living room, eat-in kitchen, and all appliances included. Recent improvements include updated windows and doors, a metal roof in 2020, and a newer shed in 2024. All electric utilities. A great option for anyone looking for low-maintenance living at an affordable price. Lot rent is $417/month. Ramp does not convey with the property.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Updated windows
• One-level living

Tags

• ONE-LEVEL LIVING
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• UPDATED DOORS
• METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $979 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $19k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 65.0% vs local median 3.0% in Lakewood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#398 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Bemus Point Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #238 of 755 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 313 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $600 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($19k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $18,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 65.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 209.70%
• DSCR: 10.33
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $17,000
• List price: $20,000
• Delta: 17.65%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
131 Greenhurst Village Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	952 (0%)	0mo	$17,000	$18	100
136 7th Greenhurst Village Dr	0.08mi	2/1.0	980 (+3%)	2mo	$33,000	$34	90
143 Greenhurst Village Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+6%)	0mo	$16,500	$16	84
142 Greenhurst Vlg	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,036 (+9%)	2mo	$30,000	$29	79
103 Palmer Greenhurst Village Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	980 (+3%)	13mo	$29,000	$30	76
116 Greenhurst Village Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (+3%)	11mo	$10,800	$11	75
139 7th Greenhurst Village Dr	0.04mi	2/1.0	980 (+3%)	22mo	$35,000	$36	74
130 7th St. Greenhurst Village Dr	0.08mi	2/1.5	980 (+3%)	19mo	$23,700	$24	73
108 Circle Greenhurst Village Dr	0.09mi	2/1.0	896 (-6%)	16mo	$35,000	$39	73
155 8th Greenhurst Village Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+6%)	14mo	$39,500	$39	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.56×
• Total profit: $59,111
• Equity at exit: $2,982

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 24.54×
• Total profit: $131,828
• Equity at exit: $1,729

Cash invested: $5,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14701

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Active inventory: 313
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,420 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $362/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $979

Break-even live

Break-even rent $182

Max offer price $20,000

Occupancy floor 26%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,000
• Closing costs: $600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2887 Fluvanna Townline Rd Jamestown, NY	1.0	1.0	820	$1,750	$2.13	43d	1	0.43mi
3779 Heineman Rd Bemus Point, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	43d	1	0.52mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $20,000 Pending 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $20,000 Active Under Contract 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $20,000 Active Under Contract 62 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $20,000 Active Under Contract 61 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $20,000 Active Under Contract 60 DOM
6. 2026-05-09
   historical Active Under Contract 488-char remark

   Show marketing remark (488 chars)

   Well-maintained and affordable, this 2 bedroom, 1 bath mobile home in Greenhurst Village offers easy one-level living. Inside you’ll find a spacious living room, eat-in kitchen, and all appliances included. Recent improvements include updated windows and doors, a metal roof in 2020, and a newer shed in 2024. All electric utilities. A great option for anyone looking for low-maintenance living at an affordable price. Lot rent is $417/month. Ramp does not convey with the property.

7. 2026-03-31
   listed $20,000 Active 488-char remark

   Show marketing remark (488 chars)

   Well-maintained and affordable, this 2 bedroom, 1 bath mobile home in Greenhurst Village offers easy one-level living. Inside you’ll find a spacious living room, eat-in kitchen, and all appliances included. Recent improvements include updated windows and doors, a metal roof in 2020, and a newer shed in 2024. All electric utilities. A great option for anyone looking for low-maintenance living at an affordable price. Lot rent is $417/month. Ramp does not convey with the property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $362 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $362 · $30/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,043
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,120
• − Property taxes: −$362
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,363
• − Management: −$1,363
• − Depreciation: −$582
• Taxable income: $12,152
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,916
• After-tax cash flow: $8,827/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bemus Point Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604530
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,968
• Composite: 55.15/100
• National rank: #2753
• State rank: #238 of 755 in NY

Livability — Lakewood

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #398
• US rank: #6904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chautauqua County · 38,461 people
• Metro: Jamestown-Dunkirk-Fredonia, NY
• Population (ZIP): 38,461
• Household income: $49,685
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1838.0

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.93%
• Current HPI: 259.402
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jamestown-Dunkirk-Fredonia, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $20,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $362 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.