1012 Duke Ave · Odessa, TX 79765

$279,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,787 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2013 6,547 sqft lot Est $293k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller doesn't want to close any sooner that April the 1st. So just bring your qualified buyer's and go show. Must make appointments through our office or call me 432-770-0352. Seller has a little puppy and she will need to take the pup with her.

Key facts

• Alley access
• Popular location
• Concrete slab

Tags

• SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• CONCRETE SLAB
• ALLEY ACCESS
• POPULAR LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Two parking spaces (two covered); Two-car garage with garage door opener; Parking pad
• Security: Owned security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane service
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built with standard residential construction
• Exterior features: Landscaped yard; Paved road access; Solar panels

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Water softener (rented)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Pantry; Breakfast bar; Owned security system; Smoke detectors; Wood-burning fireplace in living room; Home warranty included
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($515/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lee Buice El (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 843 students, 54% FRL); Wilson & Young Medal of Honor Middle (math 14% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 1,245 students, 56% FRL); Permian H S (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,978 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 433 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,644 (11.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.66%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $293,068
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8914 Ratliff Ridge Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,760 (-2%)	22mo	$289,000	$164	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-48,560
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-61,959
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79765

• Home prices YoY: -28.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 433
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,466 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$321 /mo · $3,853/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,412

Max offer price $279,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $201	-5% $122	+0% $43	+5% $-36	+10% $-116
Rent	-10% $-152	-5% $-54	+0% $43	+5% $140	+10% $238
Rate	-1.0pp $184	-0.5pp $114	base $43	+0.5pp $-30	+1.0pp $-103

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
912 Purdue St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1773	$2,400	$1.35	45d	1	0.11mi
908 Purdue St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$2,500	$1.69	45d	1	0.12mi
8633 Yale Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,500	$1.80	22d	1	0.19mi
8633 Yale Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$2,500	$1.82	15d	1	0.19mi
915 Canal St Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	2080	$3,100	$1.49	22d	1	0.25mi
1102 Canal St Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	2095	$2,600	$1.24	22d	1	0.29mi
1115 Canal St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1833	$2,400	$1.31	45d	1	0.34mi
1210 E 89th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,600	$1.64	45d	1	0.51mi
8732 Rainbow Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1573	$2,400	$1.53	45d	1	0.52mi
1218 E 89th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1667	$2,400	$1.44	22d	1	0.53mi
493 Chitalpa Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1254	$2,500	$1.99	45d	1	0.56mi
1320 E 89th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,800	$1.93	45d	1	0.58mi
1028 E 90th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,145	$1.47	15d	1	0.60mi
1023 E 90th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,500	$1.42	15d	1	0.63mi
1327 Masquerade Blvd Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,700	$1.96	46d	1	0.64mi
1025 Pine Leaf Pl Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,200	$1.56	45d	1	0.68mi
1808 Big Easy St Odessa, TX	4.0	2.5	2348	$2,950	$1.26	22d	1	0.69mi
8623 Holiday Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,800	$1.46	45d	1	0.71mi
1508 E 89th St Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	2056	$2,700	$1.31	22d	1	0.73mi
9017 Pepper Grass Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1778	$2,500	$1.41	45d	1	0.75mi
88 Maverick Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,200	$1.57	45d	1	0.76mi
9031 Antelope Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1923	$2,500	$1.30	45d	1	0.77mi
8610 Lamar Ave Unit NA Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	15d	1	0.80mi
800 E 92nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	2005	$2,550	$1.27	45d	1	0.95mi
1226 E 92nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$2,250	$1.47	15d	1	1.02mi
216 E 91st St Odessa, TX	3.0	3.0	1602	$2,500	$1.56	15d	1	1.06mi
1109 Wagon Way Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,400	$1.58	15d	1	1.13mi
9219 Holiday Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.5	2118	$2,800	$1.32	45d	1	1.17mi
1303 Terra Cotta St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,999	$1.45	45d	1	1.18mi
1306 E 94th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,350	$1.58	22d	1	1.21mi
808 E 96th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,350	$1.59	45d	1	1.22mi
900 E 96th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,300	$1.40	45d	1	1.24mi
713 E 96th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,500	$1.60	45d	1	1.26mi
819 E 97th Ct Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,350	$1.44	15d	1	1.31mi
310 E 95th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,300	$1.65	22d	1	1.35mi
618 Juniper Ct Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$2,700	$1.68	15d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   remarks 225-char remark
3. 2026-06-07
   listed $279,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,853 · $321/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,122 · $427/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,269/yr (+$106/mo · 32.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$3,853
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,368
• − Management: −$2,368
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$4,212
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,011
• After-tax cash flow: $1,526/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,904
• Household income: $104,965
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 884.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 41% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 31% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.68%
• Current HPI: 173.4252
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+36.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $279,900 ODMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $285,500 ODMLS
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $298,500 ODMLS
• 2015-05-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-05-11 Sold (MLS) — ODMLS
• 2015-02-12 Listed $204,900 ODMLS

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,853 · -21.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.