16864 Tableland Trl · The Woodlands, TX 77385

$319,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,136 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2013 5,098 sqft lot Est $411k · 22% under $34/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This well-maintained home offers approximately 3,136 sq ft with 5 bedrooms and 3.5 bathrooms, providing a flexible layout ideal for comfortable living and entertaining. The open-concept design connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a seamless flow for everyday use. The kitchen features ample cabinetry, generous counter space, and a functional layout that opens to the main living area. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an en-suite bath including dual sinks, separate shower, and a walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms are well-sized and can be used for guests, office space, or additional living needs. Interior finishes include a mix of tile, carpet, and engineered

Key facts

• 5,098 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure; Seller disclosure
• HOA & community: Association managed by Crest Management; Association amenities include pool, playground, and picnic area; Annual association fee of $407 covering common areas; Community features include curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; Road surfaces: asphalt and concrete
• Home design: Residential property; Faces northeast; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Built in 2013
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Private yard; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower; Living/dining room
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-461 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oak Ridge H S (math 48% / reading 62%, grade C, #373 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 2,672 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,625 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.19%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $410,816
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16861 Greenhouse St	0.19mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,087 (-2%)	11mo	$329,900	$107	73
10022 Hyacinth Way	0.25mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,164 (+1%)	10mo	$385,000	$122	71
16801 Greenhouse St	0.13mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,238 (+3%)	17mo	$317,000	$98	67
9966 Wing St	0.29mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,076 (-2%)	15mo	$335,000	$109	64
16735 Warbler Dr	0.42mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,086 (-2%)	14mo	$325,000	$105	59
9943 Tulip St	0.34mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,013 (-4%)	16mo	$320,000	$106	58
9902 Yearling Pl	0.14mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,746 (-12%)	15mo	$389,900	$142	56
9968 Western Ridge Way	0.21mi	5/2.5	2,676 (-15%)	15mo	$350,000	$131	51
27 Harmony Hollow Ct	0.69mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,754 (-12%)	2mo	$399,900	$145	39
31 Harmony Hollow Ct	0.68mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,748 (-12%)	2mo	$435,000	$158	38
22 Nila Grove Ct	0.62mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,683 (-14%)	7mo	$434,500	$162	34
39 Davis Cottage Ct	0.73mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,828 (-10%)	12mo	$425,000	$150	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-78,542
• Equity at exit: $47,564

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-95,801
• Equity at exit: $27,581

Cash invested: $89,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77385

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,554 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax from tax record: −$639 /mo · $7,664/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $-461

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,137

Max offer price $237,625

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,750
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16782 N Thrasher Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2137	$2,065	$0.97	13d	1	0.21mi
9931 Chimney Swift Ln Conroe, TX	5.0	3.0	3068	$2,250	$0.73	13d	1	0.32mi
8153 Tranquil Lake Way Conroe, TX	5.0	3.5	4187	$3,500	$0.84	43d	1	1.34mi
9295 Inland Leather Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2497	$2,400	$0.96	2d	1	1.36mi
17153 Upland Bent Ct Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2752	$2,149	$0.78	20d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $34 · $408/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $319,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,664 · $639/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,664 · $639/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,650
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$7,664
• − Insurance: −$1,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,452
• − Management: −$2,452
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable loss: −$11,070
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,657
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,871/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,156
• Household income: $117,118
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 471.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 16% Black 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.09%
• Current HPI: 239.9434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.88%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+39.0% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $319,000 HARMLS
• 2023-06-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-05-24 Price Changed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2023-05-02 Listed $340,000 HARMLS
• 2021-11-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-11-17 Price Changed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2021-11-12 Price Changed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2021-10-30 Listed $337,998 HARMLS
• 2019-03-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-01-03 Listed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2017-10-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-09-01 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2017-06-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-06-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-05-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-05-16 Price Changed $194,500 HARMLS
• 2017-04-27 Price Changed $199,995 HARMLS
• 2017-03-30 Price Changed $209,500 HARMLS
• 2017-03-23 Price Changed $214,500 HARMLS
• 2017-03-11 Price Changed $219,500 HARMLS
• 2017-03-01 Listed $229,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+25.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,664 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.