22690 Prospect Hts #20 · Pine Mountain Lake, CA 95321

$164,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily · 409 Days on market

Built 1986 Good condition 6,534 sqft lot $123/sqft · 21% below area Est $209k · 21% under $192/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BREATHTAKING SPECTACULAR VIEWS !!! Located in the community of Yosemite Vista Estates, these may be the most fantastic views ever! Green grass valley and mountain Spring views are just breathtaking and the snow capped mountains towards Yosemite are pretty amazing too! Located in Groveland close to Pine Mountain Lake Airport and Golf Course/Restaurant. This 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured 1986 yr home with attached 2 car garage is a great opportunity to own a slice of heaven on earth. There is a spacious front deck to entrance facing the fabulous views. The living room has windows facing the views so inside or out you can see natural landscape vista views year round. The living room has a wood burning fireplace and is open to the dining and kitchen area. The kitchen has a large pantry and access to laundry, back exterior door and garage access for enclosed access as well. There is also a side yard shed for additional tool or misc. storage. Located just 30 miles to Yosemite National Park. This is a 55 year and older ownership HOA w/ dues: $192 per month includes reserves. Plus Water and Sewer fee $191 per month = total $383.00 per month (includes water and sewer) A $250 deposit for utility required.

Key facts

• Breathtaking views
• Spacious front deck
• Green grass valley

Tags

• BREATHTAKING VIEWS
• GREEN GRASS VALLEY
• MOUNTAIN SPRING VIEWS
• SNOW CAPPED MOUNTAINS
• SPACIOUS FRONT DECK
• NATURAL LANDSCAPE VISTA VIEWS

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $164,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$208,706) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $343 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.4% in Pine Mountain Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#896 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing B; Watch: employment C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified (rural): math 15% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,094 of 1,400 in CA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 235 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 409 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 409 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.92%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,706
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: -20.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,700
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $24,679
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95321

• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,120 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,474/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $343

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,686

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $192 · $2,304/yr
• Likely covers: watersewer

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $164,900 Active 409 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 408 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 407 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 406 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 405 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $164,900 Active 403 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $164,900 Active 402 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 399 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 398 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 397 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 396 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $164,900 Active 393 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 392 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 391 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 390 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 389 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $164,900 1221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1221 chars)

    BREATHTAKING SPECTACULAR VIEWS !!! Located in the community of Yosemite Vista Estates, these may be the most fantastic views ever! Green grass valley and mountain Spring views are just breathtaking and the snow capped mountains towards Yosemite are pretty amazing too! Located in Groveland close to Pine Mountain Lake Airport and Golf Course/Restaurant. This 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured 1986 yr home with attached 2 car garage is a great opportunity to own a slice of heaven on earth. There is a spacious front deck to entrance facing the fabulous views. The living room has windows facing the views so inside or out you can see natural landscape vista views year round. The living room has a wood burning fireplace and is open to the dining and kitchen area. The kitchen has a large pantry and access to laundry, back exterior door and garage access for enclosed access as well. There is also a side yard shed for additional tool or misc. storage. Located just 30 miles to Yosemite National Park. This is a 55 year and older ownership HOA w/ dues: $192 per month includes reserves. Plus Water and Sewer fee $191 per month = total $383.00 per month (includes water and sewer) A $250 deposit for utility required.

18. 2026-03-19
    price $168,900 1221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1221 chars)

    BREATHTAKING SPECTACULAR VIEWS !!! Located in the community of Yosemite Vista Estates, these may be the most fantastic views ever! Green grass valley and mountain Spring views are just breathtaking and the snow capped mountains towards Yosemite are pretty amazing too! Located in Groveland close to Pine Mountain Lake Airport and Golf Course/Restaurant. This 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured 1986 yr home with attached 2 car garage is a great opportunity to own a slice of heaven on earth. There is a spacious front deck to entrance facing the fabulous views. The living room has windows facing the views so inside or out you can see natural landscape vista views year round. The living room has a wood burning fireplace and is open to the dining and kitchen area. The kitchen has a large pantry and access to laundry, back exterior door and garage access for enclosed access as well. There is also a side yard shed for additional tool or misc. storage. Located just 30 miles to Yosemite National Park. This is a 55 year and older ownership HOA w/ dues: $192 per month includes reserves. Plus Water and Sewer fee $191 per month = total $383.00 per month (includes water and sewer) A $250 deposit for utility required.

19. 2025-08-15
    status Active 1221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1221 chars)

    BREATHTAKING SPECTACULAR VIEWS !!! Located in the community of Yosemite Vista Estates, these may be the most fantastic views ever! Green grass valley and mountain Spring views are just breathtaking and the snow capped mountains towards Yosemite are pretty amazing too! Located in Groveland close to Pine Mountain Lake Airport and Golf Course/Restaurant. This 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured 1986 yr home with attached 2 car garage is a great opportunity to own a slice of heaven on earth. There is a spacious front deck to entrance facing the fabulous views. The living room has windows facing the views so inside or out you can see natural landscape vista views year round. The living room has a wood burning fireplace and is open to the dining and kitchen area. The kitchen has a large pantry and access to laundry, back exterior door and garage access for enclosed access as well. There is also a side yard shed for additional tool or misc. storage. Located just 30 miles to Yosemite National Park. This is a 55 year and older ownership HOA w/ dues: $192 per month includes reserves. Plus Water and Sewer fee $191 per month = total $383.00 per month (includes water and sewer) A $250 deposit for utility required.

20. 2025-08-03
    status Pending 1221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1221 chars)

    BREATHTAKING SPECTACULAR VIEWS !!! Located in the community of Yosemite Vista Estates, these may be the most fantastic views ever! Green grass valley and mountain Spring views are just breathtaking and the snow capped mountains towards Yosemite are pretty amazing too! Located in Groveland close to Pine Mountain Lake Airport and Golf Course/Restaurant. This 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured 1986 yr home with attached 2 car garage is a great opportunity to own a slice of heaven on earth. There is a spacious front deck to entrance facing the fabulous views. The living room has windows facing the views so inside or out you can see natural landscape vista views year round. The living room has a wood burning fireplace and is open to the dining and kitchen area. The kitchen has a large pantry and access to laundry, back exterior door and garage access for enclosed access as well. There is also a side yard shed for additional tool or misc. storage. Located just 30 miles to Yosemite National Park. This is a 55 year and older ownership HOA w/ dues: $192 per month includes reserves. Plus Water and Sewer fee $191 per month = total $383.00 per month (includes water and sewer) A $250 deposit for utility required.

21. 2025-07-24
    historical Active Under Contract 1221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1221 chars)

    BREATHTAKING SPECTACULAR VIEWS !!! Located in the community of Yosemite Vista Estates, these may be the most fantastic views ever! Green grass valley and mountain Spring views are just breathtaking and the snow capped mountains towards Yosemite are pretty amazing too! Located in Groveland close to Pine Mountain Lake Airport and Golf Course/Restaurant. This 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured 1986 yr home with attached 2 car garage is a great opportunity to own a slice of heaven on earth. There is a spacious front deck to entrance facing the fabulous views. The living room has windows facing the views so inside or out you can see natural landscape vista views year round. The living room has a wood burning fireplace and is open to the dining and kitchen area. The kitchen has a large pantry and access to laundry, back exterior door and garage access for enclosed access as well. There is also a side yard shed for additional tool or misc. storage. Located just 30 miles to Yosemite National Park. This is a 55 year and older ownership HOA w/ dues: $192 per month includes reserves. Plus Water and Sewer fee $191 per month = total $383.00 per month (includes water and sewer) A $250 deposit for utility required.

22. 2025-06-30
    price $169,900 1221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1221 chars)

    BREATHTAKING SPECTACULAR VIEWS !!! Located in the community of Yosemite Vista Estates, these may be the most fantastic views ever! Green grass valley and mountain Spring views are just breathtaking and the snow capped mountains towards Yosemite are pretty amazing too! Located in Groveland close to Pine Mountain Lake Airport and Golf Course/Restaurant. This 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured 1986 yr home with attached 2 car garage is a great opportunity to own a slice of heaven on earth. There is a spacious front deck to entrance facing the fabulous views. The living room has windows facing the views so inside or out you can see natural landscape vista views year round. The living room has a wood burning fireplace and is open to the dining and kitchen area. The kitchen has a large pantry and access to laundry, back exterior door and garage access for enclosed access as well. There is also a side yard shed for additional tool or misc. storage. Located just 30 miles to Yosemite National Park. This is a 55 year and older ownership HOA w/ dues: $192 per month includes reserves. Plus Water and Sewer fee $191 per month = total $383.00 per month (includes water and sewer) A $250 deposit for utility required.

23. 2025-04-24
    listed $175,000 Active 1221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1221 chars)

    BREATHTAKING SPECTACULAR VIEWS !!! Located in the community of Yosemite Vista Estates, these may be the most fantastic views ever! Green grass valley and mountain Spring views are just breathtaking and the snow capped mountains towards Yosemite are pretty amazing too! Located in Groveland close to Pine Mountain Lake Airport and Golf Course/Restaurant. This 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured 1986 yr home with attached 2 car garage is a great opportunity to own a slice of heaven on earth. There is a spacious front deck to entrance facing the fabulous views. The living room has windows facing the views so inside or out you can see natural landscape vista views year round. The living room has a wood burning fireplace and is open to the dining and kitchen area. The kitchen has a large pantry and access to laundry, back exterior door and garage access for enclosed access as well. There is also a side yard shed for additional tool or misc. storage. Located just 30 miles to Yosemite National Park. This is a 55 year and older ownership HOA w/ dues: $192 per month includes reserves. Plus Water and Sewer fee $191 per month = total $383.00 per month (includes water and sewer) A $250 deposit for utility required.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$2,474
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,035
• − Management: −$2,035
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable income: $1,736
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$417
• After-tax cash flow: $3,704/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Yosemite Vista Estates offers excellent views and is in good condition, with minor cosmetic improvements needed to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — A fresh coat of paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve both the resale and rental value
• Resale Update the interior paint — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — A fresh coat of paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve both the resale and rental value ↑
• Resale Update the interior paint — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified
• NCES district ID: 0691137
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,027
• Composite: 27.21/100
• National rank: #12450
• State rank: #1094 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pine Mountain Lake

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #896
• US rank: #23898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment C- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Mountain Lake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,870

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Serbian 4% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.27%
• Current HPI: 137.7561
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $164,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $168,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-08-15 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-08-03 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-07-24 Contingent — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $169,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-04-24 Listed $175,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR