308 Graham Rd · Kenedy, TX 78119

$90,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,656 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1954 10,497 sqft lot $34/sqft · 52% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming property located in the heart of Kenedy, offering a great opportunity for homeowners. This home sits on a generously sized lot with ample space for outdoor living, expansion, or customization. The property features a functional layout with comfortable living areas and plenty of natural light throughout. Enjoy the benefits of a quiet setting while still being conveniently located near local shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. A solid opportunity to own in a growing area with small town charm and easy access to surrounding communities.

Key facts

• Generously sized lot
• Natural light
• Quiet setting

Tags

• GENEROUSLY SIZED LOT
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• COMFORTABLE LIVING AREAS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• QUIET SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $764 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 5.1% in Kenedy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#822 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Kenedy ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #698 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in Karnes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Karnes County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,300 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.40%
• DSCR: 2.62
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $186,866
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -51.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
505 Cottonwood St	0.37mi	4/2.0	2,744 (+3%)	15mo	$115,000	$42	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $53,904
• Equity at exit: $34,435

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.20×
• Total profit: $131,166
• Equity at exit: $48,784

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78119

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,779/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $764

Break-even live

Break-even rent $833

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $90,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $90,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $99,000 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    Charming property located in the heart of Kenedy, offering a great opportunity for homeowners. This home sits on a generously sized lot with ample space for outdoor living, expansion, or customization. The property features a functional layout with comfortable living areas and plenty of natural light throughout. Enjoy the benefits of a quiet setting while still being conveniently located near local shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. A solid opportunity to own in a growing area with small town charm and easy access to surrounding communities.

16. 2026-04-21
    listed $105,000 Active 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    Charming property located in the heart of Kenedy, offering a great opportunity for homeowners. This home sits on a generously sized lot with ample space for outdoor living, expansion, or customization. The property features a functional layout with comfortable living areas and plenty of natural light throughout. Enjoy the benefits of a quiet setting while still being conveniently located near local shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. A solid opportunity to own in a growing area with small town charm and easy access to surrounding communities.

17. 2018-08-24
    soldstatus
18. 2018-08-22
    soldstatus Sold
19. 2018-07-28
    status Pending
20. 2018-06-20
    listed $85,000 New
21. 2011-12-14
    soldstatus
22. 2011-05-01
    listed $89,000
23. 2008-12-15
    listed $89,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,779 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,779 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,779
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $8,257
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,982
• After-tax cash flow: $7,191/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenedy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825440
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,961
• Composite: 22.43/100
• National rank: #8111
• State rank: #698 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kenedy

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #822
• US rank: #14883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kenedy, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,023

Population outlook (Karnes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,734 people
• By 2030: 18,027 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 20,893 · +24.9%
• By 2050: 23,689 · +41.6%
• By 2075: 31,064 · +85.6%
• By 2100: 34,752 · +107.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% Two or more races 28% White 25% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 56%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Karnes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.1) · D 20.7% · R 78.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.6pp toward R · 2008: -21.6pp · 2024: -58.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.1 2020: R+52.1 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+35.9 2008: R+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Current HPI: 125.8778
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $105,000 HARMLS
• 2018-08-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-08-22 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2018-07-28 Pending — LERA
• 2018-06-20 Listed $85,000 LERA
• 2011-12-14 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2011-05-01 Listed $89,000 CBMLS
• 2008-12-15 Listed $89,000 CBMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,779 · -14.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.