449 Tivoli Park Dr · Four Corners, FL 33897

$179,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Manufactured public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1989 6,499 sqft lot $70/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nicely maintained 2 bedroom home. New windows have been installed and it has a front awning. The kitchen has plenty of cabinets and a pleasant breakfast nook . The refrigerator and dishwasher have been replaced and there is a reverse osmosis water filter under the sink. The dining room has a built in china cabinet. The Florida room has glass windows and is under heat and air. The guest bedroom has a Murphy bed in it. The bathrooms have new countertops and sinks. The washer and dryer are newer. The carport is long enough for 2 cars. Extra tie downs were added underneath the home. The storage shed is large.

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Open floor plan
• Recent updates

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• WELL-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• RECENT UPDATES
• CLIMATE CONTROLLED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Irrigation equipment installed; Total living area reported as 1,350 (public records)
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $70 (includes escrow reserves and recreational facilities); Association recreation-owned amenities, clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, and golf facilities; Deed-restricted senior community; Pets allowed; Golf carts allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Fiber optics available; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Sprinkler meter; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; East-facing; Homestead property
• Construction: Metal frame construction with wood siding; Membrane/roof over roofing; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a 65 x 100 lot (approx. 0.15 acre)
• Exterior features: Awnings; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Thermostat; Florida room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $226 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.2% in Four Corners — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#453 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Citrus Ridge A Civics Academy (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,670 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 1,457 students, 48% FRL); Davenport High School (2,333 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 60% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 646 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $148 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $139k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,630 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.41%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.61% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,350
• Equity at exit: $46,591

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $14,272
• Equity at exit: $51,869

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33897

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 646
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,866 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,981/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,580

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $327	-5% $276	+0% $226	+5% $175	+10% $124
Rent	-10% $78	-5% $152	+0% $226	+5% $300	+10% $373
Rate	-1.0pp $316	-0.5pp $271	base $226	+0.5pp $179	+1.0pp $132

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
623 Coconut Palm Way Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	24d	1	0.13mi
511 Coconut Palm Way Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1811	$1,700	$0.94	15d	1	0.15mi
400 Australian Way Unit A Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,600	$1.19	15d	1	0.16mi
217 Australian Way Unit A Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1211	$1,750	$1.45	3d	1	0.20mi
2918 Fan Palm Dr Unit Main Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	24d	1	0.22mi
2929 Fan Palm Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	3.0	1090	$1,600	$1.47	15d	1	0.22mi
2929 Fan Palm Dr Unit 1 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1090	$1,600	$1.47	15d	1	0.22mi
1623 Fan Palm Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1451	$1,950	$1.34	4d	1	0.29mi
631 Washington Palm Loop Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1387	$1,450	$1.05	24d	1	0.33mi
722 Washington Palm Loop Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1811	$1,550	$0.86	24d	1	0.34mi
406 Washington Palm Loop Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1764	$1,525	$0.86	15d	1	0.37mi
130 Orlando Breeze Cir Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$2,097	$2.05	15d	21	0.41mi
1000 Western Breeze CIR Unit 3-410 Davenport, FL	2.0	2.0	1185	$2,360	$1.99	4d	1	0.42mi
1000 Western Breeze Cir Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1350	$2,448	$1.81	15d	83	0.49mi
218 Langford Park Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1479	$2,100	$1.42	24d	1	0.56mi
315 Allison Ave Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1180	$2,400	$2.03	24d	1	0.67mi
2010 Limetta DR Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1178	$1,970	$1.67	4d	15	0.73mi
1000 Ketner St Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1057	$1,746	$1.65	4d	22	0.83mi
309 Catfish Dr E Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,895	$1.30	24d	1	0.86mi
629 Allison Ave Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1524	$2,500	$1.64	24d	1	0.87mi
1009 Lake Davenport Blvd Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1630	$2,199	$1.35	15d	1	0.92mi
130 Town Center Blvd Clermont, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	904	$1,890	$2.09	2d	19	1.07mi
237 Somerset Dr Davenport, FL	2.0	1.0	1330	$1,900	$1.43	24d	1	1.17mi
183 Ashbourne Way Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$1,822	$1.75	4d	35	1.19mi
136 Grantham Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1799	$1,995	$1.11	4d	1	1.19mi
145 Town Center Blvd Clermont, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1029	$1,850	$1.80	2d	22	1.20mi
222 Bexley Dr Davenport, FL	2.0	2.5	1313	$2,000	$1.52	24d	1	1.22mi
603 New Providence Promenade #603 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,550	$1.26	24d	1	1.26mi
304 New Providence Promenade Unit 304 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,495	$1.22	24d	1	1.28mi
1560 Chelsea Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1528	$2,100	$1.37	24d	1	1.32mi
17345 Cagan Crossings Blvd Clermont, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$2,195	$1.73	13d	1	1.32mi
206 Scaton Way Davenport, FL	2.0	2.5	1530	$1,750	$1.14	14d	1	1.32mi
774 Chelsea Dr Davenport, FL	2.0	2.5	988	$1,750	$1.77	24d	1	1.34mi
1301 Tuscan Hills Blvd Unit 9406 1 Davenport, FL	2.0	2.0	1134	$2,200	$1.94	24d	1	1.35mi
807 Chelsea Dr Davenport, FL	2.0	2.5	1076	$1,450	$1.35	24d	1	1.37mi
1536 Mirabella Cir Unit 1536 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1567	$2,100	$1.34	24d	1	1.37mi
1556 Mirabella Cir Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1371	$1,950	$1.42	4d	1	1.38mi
1513 Mirabella Cir Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1594	$1,950	$1.22	24d	1	1.40mi
1492 Mirabella Cir Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1435	$1,995	$1.39	24d	1	1.42mi
1492 Mirabella Cir Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1435	$1,950	$1.36	15d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $179,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,950 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,950 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,950 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,950 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    listed $189,950 Active
16. 2019-04-24
    soldstatus $139,000
17. 2016-09-09
    soldstatus $93,000 Sold 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Nicely maintained 2 bedroom home. New windows have been installed and it has a front awning. The kitchen has plenty of cabinets and a pleasant breakfast nook . The refrigerator and dishwasher have been replaced and there is a reverse osmosis water filter under the sink. The dining room has a built in china cabinet. The Florida room has glass windows and is under heat and air. The guest bedroom has a Murphy bed in it. The bathrooms have new countertops and sinks. The washer and dryer are newer. The carport is long enough for 2 cars. Extra tie downs were added underneath the home. The storage shed is large.

18. 2016-09-09
    soldstatus $93,000

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Nicely maintained 2 bedroom home. New windows have been installed and it has a front awning. The kitchen has plenty of cabinets and a pleasant breakfast nook . The refrigerator and dishwasher have been replaced and there is a reverse osmosis water filter under the sink. The dining room has a built in china cabinet. The Florida room has glass windows and is under heat and air. The guest bedroom has a Murphy bed in it. The bathrooms have new countertops and sinks. The washer and dryer are newer. The carport is long enough for 2 cars. Extra tie downs were added underneath the home. The storage shed is large.

19. 2016-08-02
    status Pending 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Nicely maintained 2 bedroom home. New windows have been installed and it has a front awning. The kitchen has plenty of cabinets and a pleasant breakfast nook . The refrigerator and dishwasher have been replaced and there is a reverse osmosis water filter under the sink. The dining room has a built in china cabinet. The Florida room has glass windows and is under heat and air. The guest bedroom has a Murphy bed in it. The bathrooms have new countertops and sinks. The washer and dryer are newer. The carport is long enough for 2 cars. Extra tie downs were added underneath the home. The storage shed is large.

20. 2016-06-01
    listed $99,000 Active 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Nicely maintained 2 bedroom home. New windows have been installed and it has a front awning. The kitchen has plenty of cabinets and a pleasant breakfast nook . The refrigerator and dishwasher have been replaced and there is a reverse osmosis water filter under the sink. The dining room has a built in china cabinet. The Florida room has glass windows and is under heat and air. The guest bedroom has a Murphy bed in it. The bathrooms have new countertops and sinks. The washer and dryer are newer. The carport is long enough for 2 cars. Extra tie downs were added underneath the home. The storage shed is large.

21. 1989-08-01
    soldstatus $11,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,981 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,981 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,392
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$1,981
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,791
• − Management: −$1,791
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$140
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$34
• After-tax cash flow: $2,743/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Four Corners

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #453
• US rank: #8218

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 27,422
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,159
• Household income: $70,982
• Rent vs Own: 26.8% rent · 73.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 926.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 12% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 21% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 34% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.61%
• Current HPI: 236.2905
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.69%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1496.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $189,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 2016-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records
• 2016-09-09 Sold (MLS) $93,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-01 Listed $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1989-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,981 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.