8005 Shaddock Pl · Connerton, FL 34637

$345,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,666 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 315 Days on market

Built 2002 7,164 sqft lot Est $342k · at est. $248/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

* * Price drop!! * * This BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED 3 bedroom courtyard home is move-in ready! Just a block from the clubhouse, this MAINTENANCE FREE HOME is in the perfect location! As soon as you walk in, you will appreciate how SPACIOUS and BRIGHT this beautiful home is. Next you will appreciate the GORGEOUS WOOD FLOORS, CROWN MOLDINGS and TREY CEILING. The open-concept design makes it perfect for entertaining, while the OVERSIZED SCREEN LANAI extends your living space outdoors—ideal for enjoying Florida’s gorgeous winter and spring weather. The PRIMARY SUITE offers a generous layout, complete with an ensuite bathroom and a HUGE WALK-IN CLOSET. The SPLIT BEDROOM PLAN gives

Key facts

• Trey ceiling
• Split bedroom plan
• Gorgeous wood floors

Tags

• MAINTENANCE FREE HOME
• GORGEOUS WOOD FLOORS
• CROWN MOLDINGS
• TREY CEILING
• OVERSIZED SCREEN LANAI
• SPLIT BEDROOM PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Other annual assessment reported
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly equivalent about $248.67 / $746 quarterly fee); Association covers pool, reserve/escrow, structure maintenance, grounds maintenance, private road, recreational facilities, security; Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, tennis courts, pickleball courts, shuffleboard, golf; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Community security (included in association services)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; East-facing
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on public records (living area)
• Exterior features: Lighting; Sliding doors; Irrigation system

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stone countertops; Solid wood cabinetry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Solid wood cabinets; Split bedroom layout; Stone counters; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Washer; Dryer; Water softener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-222 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $306k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $304k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.2% in Connerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 63% / reading 52%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,170 students, 32% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 315 days — a 12% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $345k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $303,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 315 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.76%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $341,530
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20904 Tangor Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,646 (-1%)	0mo	$285,000	$173	82
20907 Tangor Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+1%)	2mo	$345,000	$205	81
8128 Ambersweet Pl	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,666 (0%)	4mo	$379,900	$228	78
20907 Diamonte Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,688 (+1%)	3mo	$340,000	$201	74
8205 Ponkan Rd	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,749 (+5%)	1mo	$340,000	$194	72
8144 Ambersweet Pl	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,588 (-5%)	2mo	$310,000	$195	71
7850 Genoa Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,884 (+13%)	3mo	$444,400	$236	70
21422 Diamonte Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,688 (+1%)	2mo	$328,000	$194	67
20009 Hidden Glen Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,698 (+2%)	4mo	$375,000	$221	64
7546 Berna Ln	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,704 (+2%)	8mo	$333,000	$195	63
19932 Hidden Glen Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,686 (+1%)	8mo	$400,000	$237	61
8432 Tarocco Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,746 (+5%)	6mo	$425,000	$243	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-48,232
• Equity at exit: $74,451

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-39,654
• Equity at exit: $70,883

Cash invested: $96,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,058 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$437 /mo · $5,245/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$248
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$642
• Net cashflow: $-222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,339

Max offer price $305,729

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-27	-5% $-125	+0% $-222	+5% $-320	+10% $-418
Rent	-10% $-464	-5% $-343	+0% $-222	+5% $-102	+10% $19
Rate	-1.0pp $-49	-0.5pp $-135	base $-222	+0.5pp $-312	+1.0pp $-403

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,250
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20191 Sabal Palm Ct Land O' Lakes, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1404	$3,338	$2.38	1d	21	0.44mi
21030 Green Wing Ct Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1945	$2,185	$1.12	26d	1	0.54mi
7655 Citrus Blossom Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	2070	$3,100	$1.50	12d	1	0.66mi
20716 Eustis Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,050	$1.41	3d	1	0.69mi
7442 Citrus Blossom Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	2067	$2,470	$1.19	26d	1	0.88mi
7232 Broad River Ave Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,550	$1.39	26d	1	1.09mi
7232 Broad River Ave Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,550	$1.39	13d	1	1.09mi
8710 Preston Woods Ct Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1684	$2,850	$1.69	19d	1	1.15mi
20602 Monza Loop Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1822	$2,500	$1.37	26d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $248 · $2,976/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $345,000 Active 315 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $345,000 Active 314 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $345,000 Active 313 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $345,000 Active 312 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $345,000 Active 310 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $345,000 Active 306 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $345,000 Active 305 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $345,000 Active 304 DOM
9. 2026-04-01
   price $345,000
10. 2025-12-01
    status Active
11. 2025-11-30
    historical
12. 2025-07-28
    listed $350,000 Active
13. 2015-02-26
    soldstatus $150,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,245 · $437/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,245 · $437/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,695
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,325
• − Property taxes: −$5,245
• − Insurance: −$1,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,936
• − Management: −$2,936
• − HOA: −$2,976
• − Depreciation: −$10,036
• Taxable loss: −$8,484
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,036
• After-tax cash flow: $-631/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 96.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+130.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $345,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-28 Listed $350,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,245 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.