5901 Newbrook Cir #8 · Riverbank, CA 95367

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 204 Days on market

Built 1988 Est $142k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-Bedroom Home in Quail Meadows Family Park - Riverbank, CA. Welcome to this lovely 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home located in the desirable Quail Meadows Family Park in the beautiful city of Riverbank, CA. Offering 1,152 sq. ft. of comfortable living space, this home features a spacious layout perfect for families or first-time homebuyers. Enjoy a nicely maintained front and backyard, complete with several fruit trees nectarine, plum, apricot, and peach plus a convenient storage shed. The extended driveway accommodates 3-4 vehicles, and there is an additional parking space located directly in front of the home. This well-kept property is move-in ready and waiting for its next homeow

Key facts

• Extended driveway
• Several fruit trees
• 3 parking spots

Tags

• SEVERAL FRUIT TREES
• CONVENIENT STORAGE SHED
• EXTENDED DRIVEWAY
• ADDITIONAL PARKING SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 5901 Newbrook Cir #8, Riverbank, CA 95367
• Financial info: Land lease: No
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts available in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a park; Double-wide; Built in 1988
• Construction: Composition roof; Wood skirting; Fleetwood manufactured home
• Exterior features: Backyard; Fenced yard; Front yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Island; Wood countertops; Hood over range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Ice maker
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tubs with showers
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open beam ceiling in living area; Porch; Pets allowed
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry hookups available; Interior laundry room; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.7% vs local median 3.0% in Riverbank — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#757 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B; Watch: schools F, amenities D-, commute F.
• Sylvan Union Elementary (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #457 of 1,400 in CA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.65%
• DSCR: 2.81
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $141,696
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5901 Newbrook Dr #78	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,128 (-2%)	2mo	$139,000	$123	88
5901 Newbrook Cir	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	17mo	$105,000	$91	84
5901 Newbrook Cir #28	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-4%)	3mo	$135,000	$123	83
5901 Newbrook Cir #112	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	13mo	$155,000	$135	83
5901 Newbrook Cir #45	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	992 (-14%)	21mo	$130,000	$131	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $50,872
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.16×
• Total profit: $133,899
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95367

• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,387 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $1,091

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2918 Stanislaus St Riverbank, CA	3.0	2.0	971	$1,950	$2.01	13d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $115,000 Pending 204 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 202 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 201 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 200 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 199 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $115,000 Active 196 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $115,000 Active 195 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $115,000 Active 194 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $115,000 Active 193 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 192 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 191 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 36 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,640
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,291
• − Management: −$2,291
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $11,971
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,873
• After-tax cash flow: $10,216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sylvan Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0638670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,181
• Composite: 44.28/100
• National rank: #6167
• State rank: #457 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Riverbank

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #22107

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverbank, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 25,593
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 25,593
• Household income: $87,487
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 615.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 31% Two or more races 29% Asian 5% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Russian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 43% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -218.95%
• Current HPI: 310.4493
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B