1219 Saint Michael St · Gonzales, TX 78629

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 881 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1932 7,875 sqft lot $96/sqft · 43% below area Est $150k · 43% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step inside a home with a story to tell. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath fixer upper carries the warmth and character of the 1930s, offering the kind of details and presence that are hard to recreate today. With the right vision, this home is ready for its next chapter—whether you’re restoring its original charm, creating a cozy personal retreat, or adding value with thoughtful updates. The layout offers comfortable living space, while the large fenced backyard gives you room to garden, gather, play, or simply enjoy a little extra privacy outdoors. A great opportunity for buyers who appreciate older homes, character-filled spaces, and the chance to make something their own. Bring your id

Key facts

• Original charm
• Fenced backyard
• 7,875 sq ft lot

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• COMFORTABLE LIVING SPACE
• ORIGINAL CHARM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water (not connected at lot); Public sewer (not connected at lot)
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Metal roof; Wood siding; Built (year source: Assessor)
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Chain link fence; Partial fencing; City lot; Quarter- to half-acre lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Tub with shower

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($130/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 2.2% in Gonzales — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#720 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Gonzales ISD (town): math 33% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #540 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 11 units permitted in Gonzales County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gonzales County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $72k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1932 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,725 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1932 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.05%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,000
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -43.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
610 N Fair St	0.52mi	2/1.0	924 (+5%)	4mo	$215,000	$233	64
623 Hopkins St	0.38mi	2/2.0	934 (+6%)	11mo	$113,000	$121	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-12,825
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-9,229
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78629

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $827/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,236

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $59	-5% $35	+0% $11	+5% $-13	+10% $-37
Rent	-10% $-88	-5% $-39	+0% $11	+5% $60	+10% $110
Rate	-1.0pp $54	-0.5pp $32	base $11	+0.5pp $-11	+1.0pp $-34

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
708 Saint Matthew St Gonzales, TX	2.0	1.0	1055	$1,250	$1.18	45d	1	0.37mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-11
   listed $85,000 Active 733-char remark
2. 2007-04-26
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $827 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$728/yr (+$61/mo · 88.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$827
• − Insurance: −$5,544
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,200
• − Management: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable loss: −$1,005
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$241
• After-tax cash flow: $371/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gonzales ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821060
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,230
• Composite: 28.97/100
• National rank: #6626
• State rank: #540 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gonzales

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #720
• US rank: #13452

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gonzales, TX
• City population: 12,380
• Population (ZIP): 12,380

Population outlook (Gonzales County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,246 people
• By 2030: 23,060 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 24,661 · +10.9%
• By 2050: 26,046 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 29,289 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 30,112 · +35.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 39% Two or more races 20% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 26%

Political lean MEDSL · Gonzales

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.8) · D 22.3% · R 77.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.4pp · 2024: -54.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.8 2020: R+48.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+30.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.37%
• Current HPI: 178.7752
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Sold (MLS) $72,500 CTXMLS
• 2026-05-26 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $85,000 CTXMLS
• 2007-04-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $827 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.