1412 # 5-502a Burlington Rd · Two Harbors, MN 55616

$81,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · Condo · 444 Days on market

Built 2007 Poor condition $113/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This listing is for a 1/8 fractional share of this unit. Whole units are also available. Are you looking for a beautiful, serene, and luxurious condo along Minnesota's Famous North Shore? Burlington Bay is finally selling condos offering stunning views of Lake Superior and a luxurious living experience that you won't find anywhere else along the Shore. Inventory available along the North Shore is extremely low. This is a rare opportunity to own a piece of paradise in one of the most desirable locations in the Midwest. Our condos feature spacious living areas, modern appliances, and high-end finishes that will make you feel like royalty. Imagine waking up every morning to the sound of the waves and the fresh lake breeze while enjoying your morning coffee on your private balcony. Amenities include: as an indoor pool, indoor and outdoor hot tubs, a sauna, a fitness center, walking trails, playground, and on-site laundry. Additional units are also available. Inquire for details.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Private balcony
• Sauna

Tags

• PRIVATE BALCONY
• INDOOR POOL
• INDOOR AND OUTDOOR HOT TUBS
• SAUNA
• FITNESS CENTER
• WALKING TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $82k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $361 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $72k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#62 in MN, #1,444 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Superior Public School District (rural): math 34% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #191 of 301 in MN (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $566 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 444 days — a 12% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $72,072 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 444 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.87%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $9,784
• Equity at exit: $12,212

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $38,454
• Equity at exit: $7,081

Cash invested: $22,932 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55616

• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,316 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$429
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$102 /mo · $1,228/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$113
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $361

Break-even live

Break-even rent $859

Max offer price $81,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $417	-5% $389	+0% $361	+5% $332	+10% $304
Rent	-10% $257	-5% $309	+0% $361	+5% $413	+10% $465
Rate	-1.0pp $402	-0.5pp $381	base $361	+0.5pp $339	+1.0pp $318

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,475
• Closing costs: $2,457
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $113 · $1,356/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-30
   days on market $81,900 Active 444 DOM
2. 2025-07-30
   price $81,900 994-char remark

   Show marketing remark (994 chars)

   This listing is for a 1/8 fractional share of this unit. Whole units are also available. Are you looking for a beautiful, serene, and luxurious condo along Minnesota's Famous North Shore? Burlington Bay is finally selling condos offering stunning views of Lake Superior and a luxurious living experience that you won't find anywhere else along the Shore. Inventory available along the North Shore is extremely low. This is a rare opportunity to own a piece of paradise in one of the most desirable locations in the Midwest. Our condos feature spacious living areas, modern appliances, and high-end finishes that will make you feel like royalty. Imagine waking up every morning to the sound of the waves and the fresh lake breeze while enjoying your morning coffee on your private balcony. Amenities include: as an indoor pool, indoor and outdoor hot tubs, a sauna, a fitness center, walking trails, playground, and on-site laundry. Additional units are also available. Inquire for details.

3. 2025-03-12
   listed $94,900 Active 994-char remark

   Show marketing remark (994 chars)

   This listing is for a 1/8 fractional share of this unit. Whole units are also available. Are you looking for a beautiful, serene, and luxurious condo along Minnesota's Famous North Shore? Burlington Bay is finally selling condos offering stunning views of Lake Superior and a luxurious living experience that you won't find anywhere else along the Shore. Inventory available along the North Shore is extremely low. This is a rare opportunity to own a piece of paradise in one of the most desirable locations in the Midwest. Our condos feature spacious living areas, modern appliances, and high-end finishes that will make you feel like royalty. Imagine waking up every morning to the sound of the waves and the fresh lake breeze while enjoying your morning coffee on your private balcony. Amenities include: as an indoor pool, indoor and outdoor hot tubs, a sauna, a fitness center, walking trails, playground, and on-site laundry. Additional units are also available. Inquire for details.

4. 2024-07-09
   listed $98,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,791
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,588
• − Property taxes: −$1,228
• − Insurance: −$410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,263
• − Management: −$1,263
• − HOA: −$1,356
• − Depreciation: −$2,383
• Taxable income: $3,300
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$792
• After-tax cash flow: $3,535/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This 1/8 fractional share of a luxury condo in Two Harbors, MN, requires extensive renovation and maintenance to improve its condition and increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Crowdsourced image shows a dirt road and sparse vegetation, suggesting a lack of maintenance.
• Major interior walls and paint — Listing photos show a dated interior with worn carpet and no visible updates to the walls or ceiling.
• Major kitchen and bathrooms — No kitchen or bathroom details are visible in the provided photos, indicating a need for significant renovation.
• Major HVAC and mechanical systems — No HVAC or mechanical details are visible in the provided photos, indicating a need for inspection and potential replacement.
• Major landscaping and curb appeal — No landscaping or curb appeal details are visible in the provided photos, indicating a need for improvement.
• Major roof and foundation — No roof or foundation details are visible in the provided photos, indicating a need for inspection and potential repair or replacement.
• Major windows — No window details are visible in the provided photos, indicating a need for inspection and potential replacement or repair.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and updating interior walls and ceiling — Fresh paint and updated walls can significantly improve the interior appearance and increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Replacing worn carpet — New carpet can enhance the comfort and aesthetic appeal of the living space, benefiting both resale and rental.
• Both Renovating kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms can add value and attract more buyers or renters.
• Both Inspecting and potentially replacing HVAC and mechanical systems — Upgrading HVAC and mechanical systems can improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value.
• Both Improving landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained exterior can enhance curb appeal and attract more buyers or renters.
• Both Inspecting and potentially repairing roof and foundation — A structurally sound roof and foundation are crucial for both resale and rental value.
• Both Inspecting and potentially replacing windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and enhance the overall appearance of the home, benefiting both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Crowdsourced image shows a dirt road and sparse vegetation, suggesting a lack of maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls and paint · Listing photos show a dated interior with worn carpet and no visible updates to the walls or ceiling.	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen and bathrooms · No kitchen or bathroom details are visible in the provided photos, indicating a need for significant renovation.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC and mechanical systems · No HVAC or mechanical details are visible in the provided photos, indicating a need for inspection and potential replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping and curb appeal · No landscaping or curb appeal details are visible in the provided photos, indicating a need for improvement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof and foundation · No roof or foundation details are visible in the provided photos, indicating a need for inspection and potential repair or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · No window details are visible in the provided photos, indicating a need for inspection and potential replacement or repair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and updating interior walls and ceiling — Fresh paint and updated walls can significantly improve the interior appearance and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Replacing worn carpet — New carpet can enhance the comfort and aesthetic appeal of the living space, benefiting both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Renovating kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms can add value and attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Inspecting and potentially replacing HVAC and mechanical systems — Upgrading HVAC and mechanical systems can improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Improving landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained exterior can enhance curb appeal and attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Inspecting and potentially repairing roof and foundation — A structurally sound roof and foundation are crucial for both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Inspecting and potentially replacing windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and enhance the overall appearance of the home, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Superior Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2740740
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $51,958
• Composite: 37.51/100
• National rank: #4399
• State rank: #191 of 301 in MN

Livability — Two Harbors

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #1444

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Two Harbors, MN
• Population (ZIP): 7,277

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,943 people
• By 2030: 9,437 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 8,326 · -16.3%
• By 2050: 7,365 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 6,008 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 5,038 · -49.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 18% Scottish 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.0% · R 47.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.1pp · 2024: 3.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.9 2020: D+3.5 2016: D+2.2 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+22.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.94%
• Current HPI: 182.619
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-16.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $81,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-12 Listed $94,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-09 Listed $98,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid