1000 E 2nd · Nixon, TX 78140

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,732 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 145 Days on market

Built 1940 0.58 ac lot $87/sqft · 11% below area Est $169k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Half an Acre home in Nixon. 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Walk into a large living room with all hardwood floors and high ceilings. Kitchen has outside access. Lots of wood cabinets, new ceramic tile and extra space for dining. Large primary bedroom with built in closets ,drawers. and hardwood flooring. 2 Car carport. Mature Trees offer shady areas outside. Convenient to the main Road 87. Fenced all around the backyard. Replaced A/C unit.

Key facts

• Outside access
• Built in closets
• New ceramic tile

Tags

• HALF AN ACRE
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• OUTSIDE ACCESS
• NEW CERAMIC TILE
• BUILT IN CLOSETS
• FENCED ALL AROUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($328/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#878 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Nixon-Smiley CISD (rural): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #451 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Nixon Smiley El (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 458 students, 86% FRL); Nixon-Smiley Middle (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 300 students, 81% FRL); Nixon-Smiley H S (math 77% / reading 57%, grade B, #163 of 1,632 statewide, top 11%, 283 students, 81% FRL).
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Gonzales County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $775 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-262 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Gonzales County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.78%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,455
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -11.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
901 E Central Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,986 (+15%)	1mo	$85,000	$43	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,851
• Equity at exit: $42,249

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $17,287
• Equity at exit: $49,754

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78140

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,353 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,313/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,319

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $112	-5% $70	+0% $27	+5% $-15	+10% $-58
Rent	-10% $-80	-5% $-26	+0% $27	+5% $81	+10% $134
Rate	-1.0pp $103	-0.5pp $65	base $27	+0.5pp $-12	+1.0pp $-51

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   Half an Acre home in Nixon. 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Walk into a large living room with all hardwood floors and high ceilings. Kitchen has outside access. Lots of wood cabinets, new ceramic tile and extra space for dining. Large primary bedroom with built in closets ,drawers. and hardwood flooring. 2 Car carport. Mature Trees offer shady areas outside. Convenient to the main Road 87. Fenced all around the backyard. Replaced A/C unit.

2. 2026-05-08
   historical Active Option 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   Half an Acre home in Nixon. 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Walk into a large living room with all hardwood floors and high ceilings. Kitchen has outside access. Lots of wood cabinets, new ceramic tile and extra space for dining. Large primary bedroom with built in closets ,drawers. and hardwood flooring. 2 Car carport. Mature Trees offer shady areas outside. Convenient to the main Road 87. Fenced all around the backyard. Replaced A/C unit.

3. 2026-04-23
   price $150,000 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   Half an Acre home in Nixon. 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Walk into a large living room with all hardwood floors and high ceilings. Kitchen has outside access. Lots of wood cabinets, new ceramic tile and extra space for dining. Large primary bedroom with built in closets ,drawers. and hardwood flooring. 2 Car carport. Mature Trees offer shady areas outside. Convenient to the main Road 87. Fenced all around the backyard. Replaced A/C unit.

4. 2026-02-14
   price $160,000 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   Half an Acre home in Nixon. 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Walk into a large living room with all hardwood floors and high ceilings. Kitchen has outside access. Lots of wood cabinets, new ceramic tile and extra space for dining. Large primary bedroom with built in closets ,drawers. and hardwood flooring. 2 Car carport. Mature Trees offer shady areas outside. Convenient to the main Road 87. Fenced all around the backyard. Replaced A/C unit.

5. 2025-12-22
   listed $170,000 New 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   Half an Acre home in Nixon. 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Walk into a large living room with all hardwood floors and high ceilings. Kitchen has outside access. Lots of wood cabinets, new ceramic tile and extra space for dining. Large primary bedroom with built in closets ,drawers. and hardwood flooring. 2 Car carport. Mature Trees offer shady areas outside. Convenient to the main Road 87. Fenced all around the backyard. Replaced A/C unit.

6. 2022-07-11
   soldstatus
7. 2018-01-01
   historical
8. 2017-12-31
   historical
9. 2017-09-23
   listed $100,000 Active
10. 2017-09-23
    listed $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,313 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$432/yr (+$36/mo · 18.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,241
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,313
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,299
• − Management: −$1,299
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,186
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$525
• After-tax cash flow: $853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nixon-Smiley CISD
• NCES district ID: 4832740
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,887
• Composite: 32.6/100
• National rank: #5674
• State rank: #451 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nixon

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #878
• US rank: #15855

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nixon, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,190

Population outlook (Gonzales County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,246 people
• By 2030: 23,060 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 24,661 · +10.9%
• By 2050: 26,046 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 29,289 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 30,112 · +35.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% White 27% Two or more races 23% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 44%

Political lean MEDSL · Gonzales

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.8) · D 22.3% · R 77.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.4pp · 2024: -54.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.8 2020: R+48.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+30.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.17%
• Current HPI: 151.751
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+50.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — LERA
• 2026-05-08 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $150,000 LERA
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $160,000 LERA
• 2025-12-22 Listed $170,000 LERA
• 2022-07-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-01-01 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2017-12-31 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2017-09-23 Listed $100,000 CTXMLS
• 2017-09-23 Listed $100,000 LERA

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,313 · +15.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.