154 Bob White Rd · Denison, TX 75020

$265,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,635 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1993 Est $382k · 31% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer Upper in an established neighborhood! Close to Mayes and B. McDaniel Schools with easy access to Highway 75. Bring your imagination with you to view this one!! Cash offers require 10% EM. Offers will be accepted beginning 08-21-2017 Owner: US Bank N. A. as Trustee for MECA 2011-1

Key facts

• Built 1993
• Listed 20 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($176/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Denison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#221 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Denison ISD (urban): math 43% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #315 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mayes El (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 471 students, 64% FRL); Henry Scott Middle (math 36% / reading 48%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 749 students, 66% FRL); Denison H S (math 53% / reading 53%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,310 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 492 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $254,233 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.24%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $382,075
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2901 W Washington St	0.59mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,583 (-2%)	3mo	$374,990	$145	58
2507 W Elm St	0.54mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,540 (-4%)	8mo	$265,000	$104	49
809 Holland Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,319 (-12%)	12mo	$369,500	$159	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-49,197
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-69,428
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75020

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 492
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,542 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$494 /mo · $5,924/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,524

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $165	-5% $90	+0% $15	+5% $-60	+10% $-135
Rent	-10% $-186	-5% $-86	+0% $15	+5% $115	+10% $216
Rate	-1.0pp $148	-0.5pp $82	base $15	+0.5pp $-54	+1.0pp $-124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1606 S Hyde Park Ave Denison, TX	5.0	3.0	3069	$4,700	$1.53	23d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $265,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $265,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $265,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $265,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $265,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-26
    listed $265,000 Active
15. 2017-09-27
    soldstatus Sold 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Fixer Upper in an established neighborhood! Close to Mayes and B. McDaniel Schools with easy access to Highway 75. Bring your imagination with you to view this one!! Cash offers require 10% EM. Offers will be accepted beginning 08-21-2017 Owner: US Bank N. A. as Trustee for MECA 2011-1

16. 2017-08-31
    status Pending 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Fixer Upper in an established neighborhood! Close to Mayes and B. McDaniel Schools with easy access to Highway 75. Bring your imagination with you to view this one!! Cash offers require 10% EM. Offers will be accepted beginning 08-21-2017 Owner: US Bank N. A. as Trustee for MECA 2011-1

17. 2017-08-17
    listed $79,500 Active 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Fixer Upper in an established neighborhood! Close to Mayes and B. McDaniel Schools with easy access to Highway 75. Bring your imagination with you to view this one!! Cash offers require 10% EM. Offers will be accepted beginning 08-21-2017 Owner: US Bank N. A. as Trustee for MECA 2011-1

18. 1999-03-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,924 · $494/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,924 · $494/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,508
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$5,924
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,441
• − Management: −$2,441
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$4,175
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,002
• After-tax cash flow: $1,178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denison ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816710
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,650
• Composite: 36.6/100
• National rank: #4629
• State rank: #315 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denison

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #221
• US rank: #5428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Denison, TX
• County: Grayson County · 108,053 people
• City population: 34,008
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,835
• Household income: $71,605
• Rent vs Own: 41.3% rent · 58.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 997.0

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -295.96%
• Current HPI: 257.1806
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.05%
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+233.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $265,000 FSBO.com
• 2017-09-27 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2017-08-31 Pending — NTREIS
• 2017-08-17 Listed $79,500 NTREIS
• 1999-03-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,924 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.