485 Lemay Ln · Henderson, NC 27537

$137,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 211 Days on market

Built 1998 0.78 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful opportunity to take on a rehab project. Large flat yard. Home will be sold as-is. MULTIPLE OFFERS. SUBMIT HIGHEST AND BEST BY 9AM 02/22/23

Key facts

• 0.78 acre lot
• Built 1998
• Listed 210 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.78 acres
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; No foundation
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Private maintained road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $137k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($875/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.1% in Henderson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#583 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Vance County Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #166 of 178 in NC (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Vance County Middle School (math 13% / reading 17%, grade F, #459 of 475 statewide, top 97%, 797 students, 100% FRL); Vance County High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #499 of 535 statewide, top 94%, 958 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 81% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Vance County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $947 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Vance County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $137k implies a 219% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 46% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,151 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.28%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $85,260
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
731 Fawn Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,094 (+12%)	7mo	$95,000	$87	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-17,612
• Equity at exit: $20,427

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-9,583
• Equity at exit: $11,845

Cash invested: $38,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27537

• Home prices YoY: -7.2%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,142 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$718
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $640/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,049

Max offer price $137,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $150	-5% $112	+0% $73	+5% $34	+10% $-5
Rent	-10% $-17	-5% $28	+0% $73	+5% $118	+10% $163
Rate	-1.0pp $142	-0.5pp $108	base $73	+0.5pp $37	+1.0pp $1

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,250
• Closing costs: $4,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $137,000 Active 211 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $137,000 Active 210 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $137,000 Active 209 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $137,000 Active 208 DOM
5. 2026-04-02
   price $137,000
6. 2025-11-04
   listed $150,000 Active
7. 2025-10-31
   historical $150,000
8. 2023-03-03
   soldstatus $43,000 Closed 148-char remark

   Show marketing remark (148 chars)

   Wonderful opportunity to take on a rehab project. Large flat yard. Home will be sold as-is. MULTIPLE OFFERS. SUBMIT HIGHEST AND BEST BY 9AM 02/22/23

9. 2023-03-03
   soldstatus $43,000 148-char remark

   Show marketing remark (148 chars)

   Wonderful opportunity to take on a rehab project. Large flat yard. Home will be sold as-is. MULTIPLE OFFERS. SUBMIT HIGHEST AND BEST BY 9AM 02/22/23

10. 2023-02-22
    status Pending 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    Wonderful opportunity to take on a rehab project. Large flat yard. Home will be sold as-is. MULTIPLE OFFERS. SUBMIT HIGHEST AND BEST BY 9AM 02/22/23

11. 2023-02-15
    listed $50,000 Active 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    Wonderful opportunity to take on a rehab project. Large flat yard. Home will be sold as-is. MULTIPLE OFFERS. SUBMIT HIGHEST AND BEST BY 9AM 02/22/23

12. 2023-02-15
    listed $50,000 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    Wonderful opportunity to take on a rehab project. Large flat yard. Home will be sold as-is. MULTIPLE OFFERS. SUBMIT HIGHEST AND BEST BY 9AM 02/22/23

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $640 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,123 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$483/yr (+$40/mo · 75.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 46% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,698
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,674
• − Property taxes: −$640
• − Insurance: −$685
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,096
• − Management: −$1,096
• − Depreciation: −$3,985
• Taxable loss: −$1,479
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$355
• After-tax cash flow: $1,230/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vance County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704650
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,323
• Composite: 19.29/100
• National rank: #8801
• State rank: #166 of 178 in NC

Livability — Henderson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #21468

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 15,298
• Population (ZIP): 23,795

Population outlook (Vance County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,985 people
• By 2030: 40,286 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 36,372 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 32,466 · -22.7%
• By 2075: 24,229 · -42.3%
• By 2100: 17,784 · -57.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 42% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Vance

• 2024 margin: D (+13.3) · D 56.3% · R 42.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: 26.6pp · 2024: 13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.3 2020: D+19.2 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+28.3 2008: D+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.06%
• Current HPI: 270.3424
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+174.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $137,000 TMLS
• 2025-11-04 Listed $150,000 TMLS
• 2025-10-31 Coming Soon $150,000 TMLS
• 2023-03-03 Sold (MLS) $43,000 AMLSNC
• 2023-03-03 Sold (MLS) $43,000 TMLS
• 2023-02-22 Pending — TMLS
• 2023-02-15 Listed $50,000 AMLSNC
• 2023-02-15 Listed $50,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+32.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $640 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.