809 Military Rd · Lemay, MO 63125

$124,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 997 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1900 3,001 sqft lot $125/sqft · 12% below area Est $142k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this dreamy cottage awaiting a new owner! Lovingly maintained, this stunning property offers 9" ceilings, hardwood flooring and historic charm. Step inside from the covered front porch to the updated kitchen that includes a giant storage pantry and overlooks a large and level backyard, a spacious designated dining room with huge windows providing tons of natural light, a comfy living room and updated bathroom. Upstairs offers two large bedrooms and a generously sized walk-in closet. Off-street parking and easy access to parks, shopping, restaurants, breweries, highways and more offer convenience and comfort-make this beautiful home yours today!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Huge windows
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GIANT STORAGE PANTRY
• LARGE LEVEL BACKYARD
• DESIGNATED DINING ROOM
• HUGE WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller may consider concessions
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: No dedicated parking spaces reported
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Electricity, water, and sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; House with two levels; Updated/remodeled condition; Entry facing unknown
• Construction: Construction materials: Unknown; Above-grade finished area reported (public records)
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on upper level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Radiant heating; Ceiling fans; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Full, unfinished basement; 5 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $242 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 5.3% in Lemay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#213 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Hancock Place (suburban): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #251 of 324 in MO (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hancock Place Elem. (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #739 of 1,115 statewide, top 67%, 616 students, 74% FRL); Hancock Sr. High (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #321 of 521 statewide, top 67%, 389 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 57% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $125k implies a 316% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,153 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.30%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,620
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -11.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
773 Reed Ave	0.57mi	2/1.0	1,036 (+4%)	1mo	$210,000	$203	66
9604 Gentry Ave	0.42mi	2/1.0	916 (-8%)	2mo	$69,900	$76	65
712 Orient Ave	0.39mi	2/1.0	900 (-10%)	4mo	$152,500	$169	63
939 Erskine Ave	0.43mi	2/1.0	894 (-10%)	3mo	$155,000	$173	60
920 Wachtel Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,090 (+9%)	0mo	$224,900	$206	59
704 Dallas Dr	0.75mi	1/1.0 (-1)	999 (+0%)	2mo	$180,000	$180	58
8626 Shoss Ave	0.61mi	2/1.0	912 (-8%)	3mo	$95,000	$104	55
1036 Wachtel Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	888 (-11%)	2mo	$174,900	$197	54
1402 Dammert Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (-8%)	2mo	$209,900	$230	52
111 E Arlee Ave	0.62mi	2/1.0	1,106 (+11%)	2mo	$128,500	$116	51
112 E Arlee Ave	0.64mi	2/2.0	888 (-11%)	2mo	$190,000	$214	46
9704 S Broadway	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+12%)	3mo	$80,000	$71	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-4,860
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $15,479
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63125

• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,291 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $851/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $985

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $313	-5% $277	+0% $242	+5% $207	+10% $171
Rent	-10% $140	-5% $191	+0% $242	+5% $293	+10% $344
Rate	-1.0pp $305	-0.5pp $274	base $242	+0.5pp $210	+1.0pp $177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
304 Bayless Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,950	$1.77	2d	1	0.16mi
709 Dammert Ave Unit Labs St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	800	$1,100	$1.38	44d	1	0.17mi
207 Waller Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,075	$1.19	24d	1	0.24mi
152 W Etta Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	936	$1,274	$1.36	8d	1	0.43mi
127 E Holden Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1044	$1,200	$1.15	44d	1	0.48mi
8511 Idaho Ave Unit 1st Floor St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	13d	1	0.69mi
8125 Michigan Ave St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	797	$1,150	$1.44	15d	1	0.87mi
9954 Meadow Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,050	$0.95	5d	1	0.98mi
9964 Meadow Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	950	$775	$0.82	8d	1	1.02mi
813 W Courtois St Apt C St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1000	$895	$0.90	44d	1	1.10mi
807 W Courtois St Apt D St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$925	$1.03	44d	1	1.10mi
807 W Courtois St Apt B St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	600	$735	$1.23	44d	1	1.10mi
815 W Courtois St St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	900	$795	$0.88	15d	1	1.10mi
7851 Bandero Dr Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	12d	1	1.12mi
812 Schirmer St Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	900	$795	$0.88	44d	1	1.16mi
7614 Virginia Ave Unit 7614 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$750	$1.00	24d	1	1.19mi
4236 Fatima Dr Apt 4 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	800	$925	$1.16	11d	1	1.23mi
3945 Crosby Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,083	$1.89	2d	1	1.32mi
125 Koeln Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	833	$1,499	$1.80	44d	1	1.33mi
274 Kingston Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	522	$1,149	$2.20	2d	4	1.33mi
7417 Vermont Ave Unit 103 St. Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1069	$1,500	$1.40	15d	1	1.33mi
7417 Vermont Ave St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	2d	8	1.34mi
7320 Vermont Ave Unit 2nd St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	710	$750	$1.06	44d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $124,900 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $127,500 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $127,500 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $127,500 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $127,500 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $127,500 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $127,500 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $127,500 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-06
    listed $132,500 Active 674-char remark
15. 2025-11-21
    status Pending
16. 2025-11-13
    price $137,500
17. 2025-10-29
    listed $144,900 Active
18. 2025-10-15
    listed $144,900 Active
19. 2025-08-25
    price $144,900
20. 2025-07-23
    listed $150,000 Active
21. 2021-12-22
    soldstatus
22. 2021-12-15
    soldstatus Closed
23. 2021-10-26
    status Pending
24. 2021-10-13
    listed $115,000 Active
25. 2015-04-27
    soldstatus $30,000
26. 2015-04-22
    soldstatus Closed
27. 2015-04-08
    historical
28. 2015-03-27
    listed $36,900 Active
29. 2015-02-14
    historical
30. 2015-01-27
    listed $39,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $851 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,212 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$360/yr (+$30/mo · 42.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,493
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$851
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,239
• − Management: −$1,239
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $908
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$218
• After-tax cash flow: $2,686/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hancock Place
• NCES district ID: 2913620
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $41,890
• Composite: 27.08/100
• National rank: #7048
• State rank: #251 of 324 in MO

Livability — Lemay

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #213
• US rank: #10652

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lemay, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 33,294
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 33,294
• Household income: $61,624
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 631.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: American 9% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 11% Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.27%
• Current HPI: 234.3792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+213.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $124,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $127,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Listed $132,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-21 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $137,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-29 Listed $144,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Listed $144,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $144,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-23 Listed $150,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-12-15 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-26 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-13 Listed $115,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2015-04-22 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-08 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-27 Listed $36,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-14 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-27 Listed $39,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $851 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.