105 N Vine St · Mount Carmel, PA 17851

$50,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 815 sqft · Other · 30 Days on market

Built 1930 1,306 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

3 Bedroom 1 Full Bath with a possibility for a 4th Bedroom in the attic. Nice hardwood floors ready to be refinished. Bring a flashlight. Utilities are not on.

Key facts

• 1,306 sq ft lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 30 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residential; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; No foundation details provided
• Exterior features: Asphalt and rubber roofing; Sidewalks; Street lights

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating
• Interior features: Refrigerator included; 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $803 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.6% vs local median 12.2% in Mount Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#641 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, commute F, employment F.
• Mount Carmel Area SD (town): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #455 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $50k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $49,250 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.81%
• DSCR: 4.06
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 76.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.75×
• Total profit: $66,514
• Equity at exit: $32,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 73.5%
• Equity multiple: 12.10×
• Total profit: $155,424
• Equity at exit: $59,670

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17851

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $717/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $803

Break-even live

Break-even rent $434

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $831	-5% $817	+0% $803	+5% $789	+10% $774
Rent	-10% $688	-5% $745	+0% $803	+5% $860	+10% $917
Rate	-1.0pp $828	-0.5pp $815	base $803	+0.5pp $790	+1.0pp $777

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
414 W 4th St Mount Carmel, PA	3.0	1.5	900	$1,450	$1.61	45d	1	0.28mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $50,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $50,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $50,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $50,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $50,000 Active
17. 2023-01-05
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $717 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $753 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$37/yr (+$3/mo · 5.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$717
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $9,394
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,255
• After-tax cash flow: $7,378/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Carmel Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4215990
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $35,195
• Composite: 23.48/100
• National rank: #7876
• State rank: #455 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mount Carmel

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #641
• US rank: #6230

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Carmel, PA
• Population (ZIP): 7,174

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,896 people
• By 2030: 89,084 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 84,822 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,521 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 72,152 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 62,257 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Subsaharan African 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.6% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.31%
• Current HPI: 127.4102
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $50,000 CSVBR
• 2023-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $717 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.