652 Lake Rd · Shadybrook, TX 75757

$65,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 450 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 2023 7,405 sqft lot $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a BEAUTIFUL and PEACEFUL place to call home! This 1 bedroom, 1 bath home sits on a 60' X 129' lot that backs up to a large acreage property with no neighbors on either side. You will enjoy the serenity of country living on the spacious front and back covered decks. The siding and roof are metal. The conventional septic design was thoughtfully planned with the leach field being on the left side of the house and in front of the house closer to the street, so no septic field in your back yard. Seller has a survey plat of the lot. There's plenty of room to park your toys here! This gated neighborhood amenities include swimming pool, boat ramp access to the Lake and a playground. Vacation and short-term rentals are allowed here! Located in Bullard ISD

Key facts

• Swimming pool
• Boat ramp access
• 7,405 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE ACREAGE PROPERTY
• METAL SIDING AND ROOF
• CONVENTIONAL SEPTIC DESIGN
• GATED NEIGHBORHOOD AMENITIES
• SWIMMING POOL
• BOAT RAMP ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $394 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 4.0% in Shadybrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,042 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bullard ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #48 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 581 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.98%
• DSCR: 2.16
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $14,598
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $45,173
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75757

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 581
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,108 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,169/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $609

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $65,000 Pending 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $65,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $65,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $65,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $65,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $65,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-03-25
   listed $65,000 Active 764-char remark

   Show marketing remark (764 chars)

   This is a BEAUTIFUL and PEACEFUL place to call home! This 1 bedroom, 1 bath home sits on a 60' X 129' lot that backs up to a large acreage property with no neighbors on either side. You will enjoy the serenity of country living on the spacious front and back covered decks. The siding and roof are metal. The conventional septic design was thoughtfully planned with the leach field being on the left side of the house and in front of the house closer to the street, so no septic field in your back yard. Seller has a survey plat of the lot. There's plenty of room to park your toys here! This gated neighborhood amenities include swimming pool, boat ramp access to the Lake and a playground. Vacation and short-term rentals are allowed here! Located in Bullard ISD

8. 2023-06-01
   soldstatus
9. 2023-05-31
   soldstatus 440-char remark

   Show marketing remark (440 chars)

   This is a beautiful, level lot located in a peaceful setting nestled against a subdivision where the lots are 10 acre parcels. This lot is located in a gated Lake Palestine community where amenities include a private boat ramp for residents use only, fishing pier, a swimming pool overlooking the lake and a playground. Long-term and vacation rentals are allowed here! Manufactured or site built homes welcome here with a minimum of 450 sq'

10. 2023-05-05
    listed $9,500 440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    This is a beautiful, level lot located in a peaceful setting nestled against a subdivision where the lots are 10 acre parcels. This lot is located in a gated Lake Palestine community where amenities include a private boat ramp for residents use only, fishing pier, a swimming pool overlooking the lake and a playground. Long-term and vacation rentals are allowed here! Manufactured or site built homes welcome here with a minimum of 450 sq'

11. 1984-11-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,169 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,190 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$20/yr (+$2/mo · 1.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,297
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$1,169
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,064
• − Management: −$1,064
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $3,951
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$948
• After-tax cash flow: $3,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullard ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812060
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,026
• Composite: 53.66/100
• National rank: #1433
• State rank: #48 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shadybrook

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1042
• US rank: #18541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shadybrook, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,977

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,949 people
• By 2030: 51,984 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 51,780 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 51,085 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 47,418 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 39,464 · -24.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 80.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.5pp toward R · 2008: -43.2pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+55.8 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+43.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.57%
• Current HPI: 189.5215
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+584.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $65,000 GTAR
• 2023-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-05-31 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2023-05-05 Listed $9,500 GTAR
• 1984-11-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+43.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,169 · -4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.