2 Vistas Cir · Smithtown, NY 11787

$1,499,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 549 Days on market

Built 2026 0.50 ac lot $577/sqft · 65% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Serene Location! To Be Built. Please Note That Rendering/Photo Shown Conveys Craftsmanship of Homes Previously Built. Taxes Are Not Known At This Time. Features Include Hardwood Floors, Granite Kitchen Countertops, Choice Of Cabinets With Dove-Tail Draws & Soft Touch Close, 2 Zone Central Air Conditioning, Colonial Base Moldings & So Much More. Some Optional Features Include Venting Out For Stove, A Fireplace, Tray Ceiling Primary Suite, Shadow-box Molding-- Builder Will Build To Suit- Close Distance To Long Island Railroad, Highways, Shopping And More. No Models Available To View~ Purchaser To Pay Customary Builders Fees. Prices Are Subject To Change-, Additional information: Appearance:Tbb,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

Key facts

• Hardwood floors
• Fireplace
• 0.5 acre lot

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• FIREPLACE
• TRAY CEILING PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $1.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16k ($192k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($33k rent vs $1.50M).
• Recommended offer: $1.32M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.1% vs local median 1.9% in Smithtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#550 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Smithtown Central School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 171 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $45k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $420k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 549 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.32M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,319,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 549 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.83%
• DSCR: 3.04
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $907,498
• List price: $1,499,000
• Delta: 65.18%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27 Cypress Dr	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,589 (-0%)	0mo	$965,000	$373	88
14 Franciscan Ln	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,742 (+6%)	12mo	$1,250,000	$456	74
60 Oak St	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,660 (+2%)	5mo	$869,000	$327	69
25 Franciscan Ln	0.11mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,893 (+11%)	12mo	$1,265,000	$437	59
9 Franciscan Ln	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,983 (+15%)	12mo	$1,050,000	$352	58
115 Cypress Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,900 (+12%)	2mo	$880,000	$303	55
35 Daisy Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0	2,400 (-8%)	11mo	$720,000	$300	55
92 Hawthorne Rd	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,951 (+14%)	1mo	$860,000	$291	54
56 Rose St	0.63mi	4/2.0	2,300 (-12%)	5mo	$680,000	$296	41
93 Boxwood Dr	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,285 (-12%)	9mo	$810,000	$354	40
20 Dalewood Ln	0.75mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,519 (-3%)	21mo	$795,000	$316	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $778,561
• Equity at exit: $223,506

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.75×
• Total profit: $1,994,652
• Equity at exit: $129,606

Cash invested: $419,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11787

• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $33,404 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,861
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,874 /mo · $22,485/yr
• Insurance: −$625
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$7,015
• Net cashflow: $16,030

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,113

Max offer price $1,499,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $374,750
• Closing costs: $44,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 Pheasant Run Saint James, NY	5.0	5.5	3058	$60,000	$19.62	24d	1	1.07mi
451 River Rd Saint James, NY	5.0	3.0	3000	$5,800	$1.93	43d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,499,000 Active 549 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,499,000 Active 548 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,499,000 Active 547 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,499,000 Active 546 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,499,000 Active 544 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,499,000 Active 543 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,499,000 Active 540 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,499,000 Active 539 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,499,000 Active 538 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,499,000 Active 535 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,499,000 Active 534 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,499,000 Active 533 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,499,000 Active 532 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,499,000 Active 531 DOM
15. 2025-11-29
    status Active 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    Serene Location! To Be Built. Please Note That Rendering/Photo Shown Conveys Craftsmanship of Homes Previously Built. Taxes Are Not Known At This Time. Features Include Hardwood Floors, Granite Kitchen Countertops, Choice Of Cabinets With Dove-Tail Draws & Soft Touch Close, 2 Zone Central Air Conditioning, Colonial Base Moldings & So Much More. Some Optional Features Include Venting Out For Stove, A Fireplace, Tray Ceiling Primary Suite, Shadow-box Molding-- Builder Will Build To Suit- Close Distance To Long Island Railroad, Highways, Shopping And More. No Models Available To View~ Purchaser To Pay Customary Builders Fees. Prices Are Subject To Change-, Additional information: Appearance:Tbb,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

16. 2025-11-29
    historical 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    Serene Location! To Be Built. Please Note That Rendering/Photo Shown Conveys Craftsmanship of Homes Previously Built. Taxes Are Not Known At This Time. Features Include Hardwood Floors, Granite Kitchen Countertops, Choice Of Cabinets With Dove-Tail Draws & Soft Touch Close, 2 Zone Central Air Conditioning, Colonial Base Moldings & So Much More. Some Optional Features Include Venting Out For Stove, A Fireplace, Tray Ceiling Primary Suite, Shadow-box Molding-- Builder Will Build To Suit- Close Distance To Long Island Railroad, Highways, Shopping And More. No Models Available To View~ Purchaser To Pay Customary Builders Fees. Prices Are Subject To Change-, Additional information: Appearance:Tbb,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

17. 2024-11-27
    listed $1,499,000 Active 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    Serene Location! To Be Built. Please Note That Rendering/Photo Shown Conveys Craftsmanship of Homes Previously Built. Taxes Are Not Known At This Time. Features Include Hardwood Floors, Granite Kitchen Countertops, Choice Of Cabinets With Dove-Tail Draws & Soft Touch Close, 2 Zone Central Air Conditioning, Colonial Base Moldings & So Much More. Some Optional Features Include Venting Out For Stove, A Fireplace, Tray Ceiling Primary Suite, Shadow-box Molding-- Builder Will Build To Suit- Close Distance To Long Island Railroad, Highways, Shopping And More. No Models Available To View~ Purchaser To Pay Customary Builders Fees. Prices Are Subject To Change-, Additional information: Appearance:Tbb,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

18. 2024-11-25
    historical
19. 2024-01-30
    price $1,199,000
20. 2020-01-14
    listed $888,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $400,849
• − Mortgage interest: −$83,967
• − Property taxes: −$22,485
• − Insurance: −$7,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$32,068
• − Management: −$32,068
• − Depreciation: −$43,607
• Taxable income: $179,159
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$42,998
• After-tax cash flow: $149,362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Smithtown Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3627060
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $110,009
• Composite: 65.53/100
• National rank: #473
• State rank: #86 of 590 in NY

Livability — Smithtown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #550
• US rank: #9881

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smithtown, NY
• City population: 34,656
• Population (ZIP): 34,656

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -670.62%
• Current HPI: 301.0617
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+68.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-29 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-29 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-27 Listed $1,499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-25 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-30 Price Changed $1,199,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-14 Listed $888,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid