1613 Palcio Real Dr · Houston, TX 77047

$244,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,124 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 2006 3,955 sqft lot Est $297k · 18% under $77/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fresh, bright, and truly move-in ready, this is the kind of home that just feels easy from the moment you walk in. This updated 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers no front neighbors, and peaceful views of the community green space right outside your door. Inside, you’ll find fresh paint, new laminate flooring throughout, tons of natural light, and a layout that gives you room to spread out. The front formal living and dining areas offer great flex space, while the open kitchen and family room create the perfect everyday hangout. The kitchen features updated cabinetry, backsplash, breakfast bar, and included appliances—washer, dryer, and refrigerator stay. Upstairs, enjoy a spacious

Key facts

• 3,955 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2006

Property features AI

Other

• Documents & disclosures: Municipal Utility District disclosure; Seller disclosure

Finance

• HOA & community: City Park HOA with annual fee; HOA includes trails; Community features include curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 2 parking spaces; Driveway; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2006; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Brick and cement siding
• Construction: Built in 2006; Brick and cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Subdivision lot; Concrete road surface; Trail(s) access via HOA

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Breakfast nook (first level) — 10 x 9; Kitchen area (first level) — 10 x 10
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (second level) — 15 x 15; Bedroom (second level) — 11 x 12; Bedroom (second level) — 11 x 12
• Flooring: Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Primary bathroom (second level) — 9 x 9; Additional bathroom (second level); Additional bathroom (first level) — 3 x 7
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric); Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Laminate counters; Primary bathroom with soaking tub and separate shower; Pantry; Tub/shower; Vanity; Window treatments; Ceiling fan(s); Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Gas log fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Utility room (first level) — 7 x 7

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-85 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (6.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $245k).
• Recommended offer: $230k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lawson Middle (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,274 students, 96% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,911 (6.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.48%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $297,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11914 Longwood Garden Way	0.12mi	3/2.5	2,124 (0%)	2mo	$270,000	$127	93
1708 Claremont Garden Cir	0.14mi	3/2.5	2,132 (+0%)	0mo	$269,900	$127	92
11930 Prior Park Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,933 (-9%)	1mo	$255,000	$132	76
1618 City Nights Way	0.23mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,249 (+6%)	3mo	$315,000	$140	72
12209 City Skyline Ct	0.23mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,259 (+6%)	3mo	$340,000	$151	70
11929 Sanspereil Dr	0.11mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,820 (-14%)	1mo	$244,900	$135	65
1835 Creegan Park Ct	0.32mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,972 (-7%)	4mo	$265,000	$134	65
1406 Lake City Ln	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,292 (+8%)	1mo	$340,000	$148	64
1926 Lingard Park Ct	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,926 (-9%)	2mo	$283,797	$147	62
11726 Dandy Park Ct	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,860 (-12%)	0mo	$289,000	$155	57
2631 Skyview Downs Dr	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,965 (-8%)	2mo	$299,000	$152	52
2122 Mateo Park Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,284 (+8%)	2mo	$302,000	$132	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-52,154
• Equity at exit: $36,515

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-79,629
• Equity at exit: $21,174

Cash invested: $68,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77047

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,501 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax from tax record: −$598 /mo · $7,170/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$77
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,609

Max offer price $229,911

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,225
• Closing costs: $7,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1409 Woods Lake Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1719	$2,191	$1.27	44d	1	0.46mi
11826 Fortune Park Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1913	$2,100	$1.10	44d	1	0.46mi
2706 Skyview Downs Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2464	$2,200	$0.89	2d	1	0.83mi
2920 Stamford Hill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,200	$1.30	44d	1	1.10mi
3013 Maughan Heights Trl Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2386	$5,000	$2.10	1d	1	1.17mi
3020 Gunnersbury Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,499	$0.90	15d	1	1.18mi
13426 Sombrero Cay Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2108	$2,300	$1.09	44d	1	1.21mi
12320 Chesney Downs Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$3,500	$1.75	3d	1	1.22mi
13802 Greyfield Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2350	$2,500	$1.06	19d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $77 · $924/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,900 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,900 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,900 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,900 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,900 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $244,900 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $244,900 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $244,900 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $244,900 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,900 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,900 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-05-18
    status Active
13. 2026-05-10
    status Pending
14. 2026-05-01
    status Pending
15. 2026-04-03
    listed $244,900 Active
16. 2011-04-01
    historical
17. 2010-01-23
    listed $155,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,170 · $598/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,170 · $598/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,015
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,718
• − Property taxes: −$7,170
• − Insurance: −$1,224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,401
• − Management: −$2,401
• − HOA: −$924
• − Depreciation: −$7,124
• Taxable loss: −$4,949
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,188
• After-tax cash flow: $169/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,987
• Household income: $78,538
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1109.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 15% White 6% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.76%
• Current HPI: 239.2287
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+58.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $244,900 HARMLS
• 2011-04-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-01-23 Listed $155,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,170 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.