820 S 20th St · Herrin, IL 62948

$84,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,948 sqft · Other · 38 Days on market

Built 1920 0.42 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great 3 bedroom home sitting at the end of a quiet street. Lovely fenced back yard with 2 lots, firepit, mature trees, 2 car garage, good size rooms with walk-in closets, fireplace (electric), newer appliances, some new windows, new HVAC system and ductwork installed in 2015, newer hot water heater, blown in insulation, and partial basement. Home appraised 3/2026 for $90,000. Priced below appraised value!

Key facts

• Blown in insulation
• Firepit
• Fenced back yard

Tags

• FENCED BACK YARD
• FIREPIT
• MATURE TREES
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• BLOWN IN INSULATION
• PARTIAL BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.2% vs local median 8.5% in Herrin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#667 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Herrin CUSD 4 (suburban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #364 of 620 in IL (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 130 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $85k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,353 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.23%
• DSCR: 3.37
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $53,494
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.61×
• Total profit: $133,437
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62948

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,435/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $1,054

Break-even live

Break-even rent $865

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
305 S McVicker Dr Unit 1 Energy, IL	3.0	2.0	2200	$2,200	$1.00	43d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 408-char remark

   Show marketing remark (408 chars)

   Great 3 bedroom home sitting at the end of a quiet street. Lovely fenced back yard with 2 lots, firepit, mature trees, 2 car garage, good size rooms with walk-in closets, fireplace (electric), newer appliances, some new windows, new HVAC system and ductwork installed in 2015, newer hot water heater, blown in insulation, and partial basement. Home appraised 3/2026 for $90,000. Priced below appraised value!

2. 2026-05-02
   historical Contingent - Continue to Show 408-char remark

   Show marketing remark (408 chars)

   Great 3 bedroom home sitting at the end of a quiet street. Lovely fenced back yard with 2 lots, firepit, mature trees, 2 car garage, good size rooms with walk-in closets, fireplace (electric), newer appliances, some new windows, new HVAC system and ductwork installed in 2015, newer hot water heater, blown in insulation, and partial basement. Home appraised 3/2026 for $90,000. Priced below appraised value!

3. 2026-04-08
   status Active 408-char remark

   Show marketing remark (408 chars)

   Great 3 bedroom home sitting at the end of a quiet street. Lovely fenced back yard with 2 lots, firepit, mature trees, 2 car garage, good size rooms with walk-in closets, fireplace (electric), newer appliances, some new windows, new HVAC system and ductwork installed in 2015, newer hot water heater, blown in insulation, and partial basement. Home appraised 3/2026 for $90,000. Priced below appraised value!

4. 2026-04-03
   historical Contingent - Continue to Show 408-char remark

   Show marketing remark (408 chars)

   Great 3 bedroom home sitting at the end of a quiet street. Lovely fenced back yard with 2 lots, firepit, mature trees, 2 car garage, good size rooms with walk-in closets, fireplace (electric), newer appliances, some new windows, new HVAC system and ductwork installed in 2015, newer hot water heater, blown in insulation, and partial basement. Home appraised 3/2026 for $90,000. Priced below appraised value!

5. 2026-03-30
   listed $84,900 Active 408-char remark

   Show marketing remark (408 chars)

   Great 3 bedroom home sitting at the end of a quiet street. Lovely fenced back yard with 2 lots, firepit, mature trees, 2 car garage, good size rooms with walk-in closets, fireplace (electric), newer appliances, some new windows, new HVAC system and ductwork installed in 2015, newer hot water heater, blown in insulation, and partial basement. Home appraised 3/2026 for $90,000. Priced below appraised value!

6. 2011-06-14
   soldstatus $50,000 358-char remark

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   Great house on a very quiet street. Two lots, 2 car detached garage, basement with plenty of storage. Nine closets throughout house including walk-ins. Dining Room, large kitchen, nice size bedrooms. Great back yard with a fire pit. Front porch is perfect for morning coffee. Living Room has a gas fireplace. Entry way could be used for computer/office. none

7. 2011-06-14
   soldstatus $50,000 358-char remark

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   Great house on a very quiet street. Two lots, 2 car detached garage, basement with plenty of storage. Nine closets throughout house including walk-ins. Dining Room, large kitchen, nice size bedrooms. Great back yard with a fire pit. Front porch is perfect for morning coffee. Living Room has a gas fireplace. Entry way could be used for computer/office. none

8. 2011-06-14
   soldstatus $50,000

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   Great house on a very quiet street. Two lots, 2 car detached garage, basement with plenty of storage. Nine closets throughout house including walk-ins. Dining Room, large kitchen, nice size bedrooms. Great back yard with a fire pit. Front porch is perfect for morning coffee. Living Room has a gas fireplace. Entry way could be used for computer/office. none

9. 2010-10-01
   listed $55,000 358-char remark

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   Great house on a very quiet street. Two lots, 2 car detached garage, basement with plenty of storage. Nine closets throughout house including walk-ins. Dining Room, large kitchen, nice size bedrooms. Great back yard with a fire pit. Front porch is perfect for morning coffee. Living Room has a gas fireplace. Entry way could be used for computer/office. none

10. 2010-10-01
    listed $55,000 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    Great house on a very quiet street. Two lots, 2 car detached garage, basement with plenty of storage. Nine closets throughout house including walk-ins. Dining Room, large kitchen, nice size bedrooms. Great back yard with a fire pit. Front porch is perfect for morning coffee. Living Room has a gas fireplace. Entry way could be used for computer/office. none

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,435 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,435 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$2,435
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $12,091
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,902
• After-tax cash flow: $9,752/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Herrin CUSD 4
• NCES district ID: 1718810
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $38,824
• Composite: 20.56/100
• National rank: #8558
• State rank: #364 of 620 in IL

Livability — Herrin

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #667
• US rank: #13670

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Herrin, IL
• City population: 12,728
• Population (ZIP): 12,728

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,553 people
• By 2030: 70,090 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 70,345 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 69,394 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 63,590 · -8.6%
• By 2100: 51,154 · -26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.8) · D 30.0% · R 68.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.0pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -38.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.8 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+25.0 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.82%
• Current HPI: 131.1617
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+54.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-02 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Listed $84,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2011-06-14 Sold (MLS) $50,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-14 Sold (MLS) $50,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-10-01 Listed $55,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-10-01 Listed $55,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,435 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.