1115 Mckinley St NE · Warren, OH 44483

$25,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 616 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1930 5,850 sqft lot Est $48k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 1115 McKinley St NE in Warren! This charming home offers the perfect blend of comfort, character, and functionality. This home features 2 rooms with closets that can be used as bedrooms, or one would make a great family room. It offers an efficient layout, with plenty of opportunity to make it your own. Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer, looking to downsize, or searching for an investment opportunity, this property checks all the boxes. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, parks, and major routes, this home offers both convenience and value. Don’t miss your chance to make this Warren gem your next address!

Key facts

• Near dining
• Near shopping
• Near major routes

Tags

• EFFICIENT LAYOUT
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR DINING
• NEAR PARKS
• NEAR MAJOR ROUTES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: $268 annual tax (2025)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car); Garage faces front
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Slab foundation
• Construction: Vinyl and wood siding; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Built according to public records
• Exterior features: Small lot (approximately 0.13 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (gas)
• Interior features: Porch

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $546 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($898 rent vs $25k).
• Cap rate 32.5% vs local median 6.0% in Warren — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#312 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime D-, commute F, employment F.
• Warren City (urban): math 22% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #599 of 656 in OH (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $25k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $25,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 93.58%
• DSCR: 5.16
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $48,048
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1115 Mckinley St NE	0.00mi	2/1.0	616 (0%)	1mo	$21,000	$34	100
1014 Harrison St NE	0.12mi	2/1.0	702 (+14%)	7mo	$46,500	$66	66
1285 Atlantic St NE	0.42mi	2/1.0	694 (+13%)	15mo	$86,250	$124	47
526 Laird Ave SE	0.62mi	2/1.0	704 (+14%)	14mo	$54,900	$78	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 94.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.39×
• Total profit: $30,725
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: 97.2%
• Equity multiple: 11.22×
• Total profit: $71,556
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44483

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $898 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $268/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $546

Break-even live

Break-even rent $207

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
259 Perkinswood Blvd NE Warren, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0	743	$845	$1.14	13d	3	1.00mi
2661 South St SE Unit J Warren, OH	2.0	1.0	670	$800	$1.19	13d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $25,000 Active
3. 1996-03-28
   soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $268 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $329 · $27/mo
• Expected delta: +$61/yr (+$5/mo · 22.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,780
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$268
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$862
• − Management: −$862
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $6,535
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,568
• After-tax cash flow: $4,982/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren City
• NCES district ID: 3904499
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $28,222
• Composite: 21.6/100
• National rank: #8299
• State rank: #599 of 656 in OH

Livability — Warren

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #312
• US rank: #5068

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warren, OH
• County: Trumbull County · 61,158 people
• City population: 25,805
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• Population (ZIP): 25,805
• Household income: $49,017
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 989.0

Population outlook (Trumbull County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,696 people
• By 2030: 184,015 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 166,810 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 149,857 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 115,769 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 83,617 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trumbull

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.2% · R 58.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+6.4 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.50%
• Current HPI: 218.3455
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+108.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-05-08 Listed $25,000 MLSNOW
• 1996-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $268 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.