306 Autumn Ln · Madison, AL 35758

$195,500

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,566 sqft · Townhouse public records · 300 Days on market

Built 1983 5,227 sqft lot $125/sqft · at area comps Est $194k · at est. $350/mo HOA · 22% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recently updated townhome located in Madison City school district. Home has 2 car garage, recently replaced HVAC, new kitchen cabinets, stove, bathroom vanities, fixtures and flooring. Two bedroom suites located upstairs one with private deck. Community includes clubhouse and pool. Close to Town Madison, I-565, shopping and entertainment.

Key facts

• Private deck
• Clubhouse
• New kitchen cabinets

Tags

• UPDATED TOWNHOME
• RECENTLY REPLACED HVAC
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• PRIVATE DECK
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $196k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-372 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (33.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.6% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#12 in AL, #3,280 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Madison City (suburban): math 51% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #4 of 129 in AL (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 382 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 4,709 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (1,186 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($117k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Madison County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 300 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,761 (33.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 300 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.16%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,231
• List price: $195,500
• Delta: 0.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
140 Summerview Dr	0.19mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,525 (-3%)	2mo	$180,000	$118	76
207 Summerview Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (-3%)	13mo	$185,000	$122	72
377 Oakland Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,522 (-3%)	12mo	$190,000	$125	69
203 Springvale Cir	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,350 (-14%)	2mo	$179,900	$133	66
301 Autumn Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,464 (-6%)	20mo	$200,000	$137	63
365 Oakland Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,415 (-10%)	7mo	$199,900	$141	62
325 Autumn Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,448 (-8%)	23mo	$199,000	$137	58
302 Winterhaven Trl	0.18mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,450 (-7%)	19mo	$197,710	$136	54
403 Summerview Dr	0.11mi	2/1.5	1,342 (-14%)	23mo	$175,000	$130	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 1.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $80,713
• Equity at exit: $176,122

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.61×
• Total profit: $252,399
• Equity at exit: $379,814

Cash invested: $54,740 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35758

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 382
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,605 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,025
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,204/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$350
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $-372

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,076

Max offer price $129,761

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,875
• Closing costs: $5,865
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
403 Oakland Rd Madison, AL	2.0	2.5	1165	$1,295	$1.11	43d	1	0.14mi
2002 Flagstone Dr Madison, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	973	$1,247	$1.28	13d	77	0.32mi
245 Pineridge Rd Madison, AL	3.0	2.0	1812	$2,000	$1.10	43d	1	0.47mi
102 Acacia Trail Dr Madison, AL	3.0	2.0	2005	$2,000	$1.00	21d	1	0.47mi
101 Springfield Ln Madison, AL	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,350	$1.43	43d	1	0.61mi
286 Slaughter Rd NW Madison, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1385	$1,699	$1.23	13d	31	0.67mi
240 Stadium Way Madison, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,690	$1.70	13d	29	0.72mi
7900 Old Madison Pike Madison, AL	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1313	$1,164	$0.89	13d	11	0.76mi
1 Madison Park Dr Madison, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$1,678	$1.46	13d	18	0.77mi
104 Kathy Cir Madison, AL	3.0	2.0	1768	$1,995	$1.13	43d	1	0.80mi
200 Town Madison Blvd Madison, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	998	$1,558	$1.56	13d	22	0.80mi
1105 Woodbine Rd Madison, AL	3.0	1.5	1254	$1,500	$1.20	23d	1	0.87mi
100 Arch St Pl Madison, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	838	$1,706	$2.03	13d	20	0.90mi
2300 Colonial Lake Dr Madison, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1083	$1,186	$1.09	13d	39	0.94mi
118 Canterbury Dr Madison, AL	3.0	2.0	2031	$2,300	$1.13	43d	1	0.95mi
510 Clift Dr Madison, AL	3.0	2.0	1197	$1,600	$1.34	43d	1	1.00mi
153 Canterbury Dr Madison, AL	3.0	2.0	1730	$1,950	$1.13	21d	1	1.04mi
202 High Rd Madison, AL	3.0	2.5	1759	$2,375	$1.35	23d	1	1.05mi
1006 Wood Cir Madison, AL	3.0	2.0	2173	$1,899	$0.87	43d	1	1.08mi
416 Walton Rd Madison, AL	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,795	$1.37	13d	1	1.10mi
712 Marion Dr Madison, AL	3.0	1.0	1253	$1,450	$1.16	43d	1	1.15mi
709 Marion Dr Madison, AL	3.0	2.0	2050	$1,795	$0.88	21d	1	1.17mi
1016 Seina Vista Dr Madison, AL	3.0	2.0	1981	$2,100	$1.06	13d	1	1.19mi
124 Iberville St Madison, AL	2.0	2.0	1346	$2,049	$1.52	43d	1	1.20mi
722 Highland Dr Madison, AL	3.0	2.5	1938	$1,750	$0.90	13d	1	1.23mi
349 Waters Edge Ln Unit n/a Madison, AL	2.0	2.0	1055	$1,050	$1.00	43d	1	1.29mi
200 Millstone Ln Madison, AL	3.0	2.0	1425	$2,000	$1.40	43d	1	1.30mi
210 Waters Edge Ln #6 Madison, AL	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,075	$1.01	43d	1	1.30mi
262 Waters Edge Ln Unit 262 Madison, AL	2.0	2.0	1055	$1,175	$1.11	43d	1	1.30mi
234 W Lake Cir Madison, AL	2.0	2.0	1976	$1,695	$0.86	43d	1	1.44mi
180 Hughes Rd Madison, AL	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.5	1373	$1,824	$1.33	13d	45	1.44mi
248 W Lake Cir Madison, AL	2.0	2.0	1764	$1,625	$0.92	23d	1	1.47mi
122 W Lake Cir Madison, AL	2.0	2.0	1881	$1,695	$0.90	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $350 · $4,200/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,500 Active 300 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,500 Active 299 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,500 Active 298 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,500 Active 297 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,500 Active 295 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,500 Active 292 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,500 Active 291 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,500 Active 290 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,500 Active 289 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,500 Active 285 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,500 Active 284 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,500 Active 283 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,500 Active 282 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $195,500 Active 281 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    price $195,500 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Recently updated townhome located in Madison City school district. Home has 2 car garage, recently replaced HVAC, new kitchen cabinets, stove, bathroom vanities, fixtures and flooring. Two bedroom suites located upstairs one with private deck. Community includes clubhouse and pool. Close to Town Madison, I-565, shopping and entertainment.

16. 2026-02-05
    status Active 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Recently updated townhome located in Madison City school district. Home has 2 car garage, recently replaced HVAC, new kitchen cabinets, stove, bathroom vanities, fixtures and flooring. Two bedroom suites located upstairs one with private deck. Community includes clubhouse and pool. Close to Town Madison, I-565, shopping and entertainment.

17. 2025-12-10
    status Pending 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Recently updated townhome located in Madison City school district. Home has 2 car garage, recently replaced HVAC, new kitchen cabinets, stove, bathroom vanities, fixtures and flooring. Two bedroom suites located upstairs one with private deck. Community includes clubhouse and pool. Close to Town Madison, I-565, shopping and entertainment.

18. 2025-11-05
    price $197,500 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Recently updated townhome located in Madison City school district. Home has 2 car garage, recently replaced HVAC, new kitchen cabinets, stove, bathroom vanities, fixtures and flooring. Two bedroom suites located upstairs one with private deck. Community includes clubhouse and pool. Close to Town Madison, I-565, shopping and entertainment.

19. 2025-06-26
    listed $199,900 Active 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Recently updated townhome located in Madison City school district. Home has 2 car garage, recently replaced HVAC, new kitchen cabinets, stove, bathroom vanities, fixtures and flooring. Two bedroom suites located upstairs one with private deck. Community includes clubhouse and pool. Close to Town Madison, I-565, shopping and entertainment.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,204 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,204 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,951
• − Property taxes: −$2,204
• − Insurance: −$978
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,541
• − Management: −$1,541
• − HOA: −$4,200
• − Depreciation: −$5,687
• Taxable loss: −$7,838
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,881
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,584/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison City
• NCES district ID: 0100008
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $89,091
• Composite: 55.56/100
• National rank: #1238
• State rank: #4 of 129 in AL

Livability — Madison

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #3280

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madison, AL
• County: Madison County · 380,832 people
• City population: 93,742
• Metro: Huntsville, AL
• Population (ZIP): 50,266
• Household income: $117,380
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 875.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 392,086 people
• By 2030: 409,788 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 440,557 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 460,990 · +17.6%
• By 2075: 502,872 · +28.3%
• By 2100: 513,623 · +31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 7% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 44.7% · R 53.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.0pp toward D · 2008: -14.9pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+8.0 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+18.7 2008: R+14.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.46%
• Current HPI: 355.2784
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.58%
• Metro: Huntsville, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-2.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $195,500 VMLS
• 2026-02-05 Relisted — VMLS
• 2025-12-10 Pending — VMLS
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $197,500 VMLS
• 2025-06-26 Listed $199,900 VMLS

Property tax history

+15.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,204 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.