23492 Sugar Hill Rd · Carrollton, VA 23314

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1973 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

CONTRACT ACCEPTED, NO SHOWINGS. Do NOT approach this home - Sellers do NOT want anyone visiting the home and will contact the police if anyone approaches the house!!!

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1973
• Listed 4 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA (fees listed as 0)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway space
• Utilities: City/County water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Detached manufactured / mobile home; Single-story
• Construction: Crawl foundation
• Exterior features: Asphalt shingle roof; Approximately 1.0 acre lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedroom with full bathroom on the first floor; Total rooms: 4
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump
• Interior features: Carpet flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Cap rate 25.6% vs local median 3.4% in Carrollton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#201 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Isle Of Wight County Public School District (rural): math 62% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #28 of 131 in VA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 257 units permitted in Isle of Wight County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Isle of Wight County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.05%
• DSCR: 4.07
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.09×
• Total profit: $64,830
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 72.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.41×
• Total profit: $155,639
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23314

• Home prices YoY: -12.2%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,162 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $902/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $1,208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $633

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1501 Kathy Ann Way E Carrollton, VA	2.0	2.0	1353	$1,995	$1.47	43d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-07
   remarks 166-char remark
2. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $75,000 Under Contract 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $75,000 Active Under Contract 3 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $75,000 Active Under Contract 2 DOM
5. 2026-05-29
   listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $902 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $902 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,946
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$902
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,076
• − Management: −$2,076
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $14,134
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,392
• After-tax cash flow: $11,108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Isle Of Wight County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102010
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,756
• Composite: 58.67/100
• National rank: #982
• State rank: #28 of 131 in VA

Livability — Carrollton

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #201
• US rank: #6196

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carrollton, VA
• County: Isle of Wight County · 10,099 people
• City population: 10,099
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 10,099
• Household income: $104,029
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 323.0

Population outlook (Isle of Wight County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,005 people
• By 2030: 40,089 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 41,703 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 42,745 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 47,222 · +21.1%
• By 2100: 47,810 · +22.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 21% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Isle of Wight

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 39.6% · R 59.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -13.4pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+18.4 2016: R+21.0 2012: R+14.7 2008: R+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.21%
• Current HPI: 267.9382
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $75,000 REINMLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $902 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.