1 Beach 538-C · Manson, WA 98831

$1

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 964 sqft · Timeshare · 46 Days on market

Built 1988 $0/sqft · 100% below area $263/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy July 4th Week in 2028!! 2 Bed 2 Bath Upper floor luxury suite located on SANDY BEACH waterfront side of the resort. Less than a minute stroll from your unit across the spacious lawn to sandy beach, swimming & boat moorage. Buy Now & use Holiday Sept 3-10 in 2026. Pay NO HOA Fees until 3rd Quarter 2026. May 7-14 week not available to buyer. Jan 28-Feb 4, June 3-10 & Sept 30-Oct 7 in 2027. March 2-9, HOLIDAY Week June 29-July 6 & Oct 26-Nov 2 in 2028. March 29-April 5, July 26-August 2 & Thanksgiving Week November 22-29 in 2029. Affordable HOA Fees $788 per quarter. 3 rotating weeks per year ensure you experience every season the valley has to offer &md

Key facts

• Parking
• Community pool
• Built 1988

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath timeshare listed at $1.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $760 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $1).
• Cap rate 912058.0% vs local median 2.9% in Manson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#421 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living D+, employment D.
• Manson School District (town): math 42% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #211 of 291 in WA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 214 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 762 units permitted in Chelan County in 2024 (377 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $0 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $0 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chelan County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $0 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($0) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 129500.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 912058.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 3257327.53%
• DSCR: 144933.75
• GRM: 0.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,801
• List price: $1
• Delta: -99.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 Beach 538-C	0.00mi	2/2.0	964 (0%)	1mo	$1	—	99
1 Beach 542-C	0.00mi	2/2.0	964 (0%)	5mo	$3,500	$4	96
1 Lakeside 701-B	0.55mi	2/2.0	981 (+2%)	2mo	$2,000	$2	69
1 Lakeside 711-F	0.57mi	2/2.0	981 (+2%)	4mo	$4,500	$5	67
1 Lakeside 720-P	0.58mi	2/2.0	981 (+2%)	4mo	$1,000	$1	66
1 Beach 553-A	0.67mi	2/2.0	964 (0%)	4mo	$3,500	$4	65
1 Lakeside 720-H	0.58mi	2/2.0	981 (+2%)	6mo	$1	—	65
1 Beach 549-I	0.74mi	2/2.0	964 (0%)	2mo	$1	—	64
1 Lakeside 715-Q	0.58mi	2/2.0	981 (+2%)	8mo	$3,500	$4	63
1 Beach 534-O	0.73mi	2/2.0	964 (0%)	4mo	$2,600	$3	63
1 Lodge 632-C	0.69mi	2/2.0	981 (+2%)	4mo	$500	$1	62
1 Beach 536-J	0.70mi	2/2.0	964 (0%)	8mo	$1	—	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 173531.58×
• Total profit: $48,589
• Equity at exit: $0

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 376352.77×
• Total profit: $105,378
• Equity at exit: $0

Cash invested: $0 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98831

• Active inventory: 214

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$0
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$0 /mo · $0/yr
• Insurance: −$0
• HOA: −$263
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $760

Break-even live

Break-even rent $333

Max offer price $1

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $760	-5% $760	+0% $760	+5% $760	+10% $760
Rent	-10% $658	-5% $709	+0% $760	+5% $811	+10% $862
Rate	-1.0pp $760	-0.5pp $760	base $760	+0.5pp $760	+1.0pp $760

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $0
• Closing costs: $0
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
139 Chandler Rd Unit 16D Manson, WA	1.0	1.0	800	$1,295	$1.62	44d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $263 · $3,156/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   listed $1 Active
3. 2020-07-15
   soldstatus $1,800
4. 2019-10-18
   listed $1,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 23 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$0
• − Property taxes: −$0
• − Insurance: −$0
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,243
• − Management: −$1,243
• − HOA: −$3,156
• − Depreciation: −$0
• Taxable income: $9,897
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,375
• After-tax cash flow: $6,745/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manson School District
• NCES district ID: 5304740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,123
• Composite: 37.53/100
• National rank: #8876
• State rank: #211 of 291 in WA

Livability — Manson

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #421
• US rank: #16741

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manson, WA
• Population (ZIP): 4,020

Population outlook (Chelan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,630 people
• By 2030: 84,312 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 88,619 · +8.6%
• By 2050: 91,915 · +12.6%
• By 2075: 99,409 · +21.8%
• By 2100: 100,032 · +22.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 40% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 5% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 38% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chelan

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.5) · D 43.9% · R 53.4% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -12.0pp · 2024: -9.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.5 2020: R+7.8 2016: R+15.7 2012: R+16.9 2008: R+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -325.60%
• Current HPI: 249.0392
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Listed $1 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-15 Sold (MLS) $1,800 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-18 Listed $1,800 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid