3 Waterville Rd · Belfast, ME 04915

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 428 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

10,018 sqft lot $292/sqft · 26% above area Est $149k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HOME BEING SOLD AS. IS PROPERTY IS CONDEMNED SEE CITY CODE OFFICE TO SEE WHAT CAN BE DONE.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Parking
• Listed 98 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $283 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.5% in Belfast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#14 in ME, #1,247 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• RSU 71 (town): math 79% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #85 of 112 in ME (top 76%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 143 units permitted in Waldo County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waldo County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.70%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,750
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -15.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,236
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $21,280
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04915

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,425 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,624/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,067

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-03-11
    listed $125,000 Active 93-char remark

    Show marketing remark (93 chars)

    HOME BEING SOLD AS. IS PROPERTY IS CONDEMNED SEE CITY CODE OFFICE TO SEE WHAT CAN BE DONE.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ME · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,624 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,662 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$38/yr (+$3/mo · 2.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,624
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,368
• − Management: −$1,368
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,476
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$354
• After-tax cash flow: $3,039/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 71
• NCES district ID: 2314822
• Math proficiency: 79% ▲ 55.00%
• Reading proficiency: 82% ▲ 34.00%
• Median HH income: $43,774
• Composite: 67.47/100
• National rank: #374
• State rank: #85 of 112 in ME

Livability — Belfast

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #1247

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belfast, ME
• City population: 9,030
• Population (ZIP): 9,030

Population outlook (Waldo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,611 people
• By 2030: 39,475 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 38,245 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 36,078 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 29,774 · -24.8%
• By 2100: 22,172 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waldo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.4% · R 47.0% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.3pp toward R · 2008: 11.6pp · 2024: 3.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.4 2020: D+4.7 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+10.7 2008: D+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.00%
• Current HPI: 258.9162
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed $125,000 MREIS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,624 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.