451 Jim Kelly Dr · South Lockport, NY 14094

$89,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured · 8 Days on market

Built 1995 Average condition Est $86k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 3-bed, 2-bath home situated on a concrete pad with a one car garage. This spacious home also features central air and a welcoming living room, formal dining area, and a cozy family room complete with a gas fireplace. The kitchen has abundant cabinet space, perfect for storage and entertaining. The primary suite is designed for comfort with a luxurious garden tub, oversized walk-in shower, double sinks and separate vanities. Guests will appreciate the large parking area conveniently located directly across from the home. Step outside to enjoy the private back deck overlooking a peaceful wooded area with no rear neighbors--the perfect setting for relaxing mornings or evening gatheri

Key facts

• Garage
• Community pool
• Built 1995

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 100
• Financial info: Monthly land lease payment
• HOA & community: Land lease applicable

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with electric and automatic garage door opener (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story home; Double-wide manufactured home (Schultz); Resale property; City street frontage; Lot is rectangular and wooded; near public transit
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Bedroom 1 (15 x 13); Bedroom 2 (13 x 10); Bedroom 3 (10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Skylights; Ceiling fans; Kitchen island; Formal living room; Formal dining room; Main-level primary bedroom; Primary bedroom with bath; No stairs (single-level accessibility); Accessible bedroom; Low-threshold shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Main-level laundry / accessible utilities

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $566 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 1.5% in South Lockport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#633 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Lockport City School District (town): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #452 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 357 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $89,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.97%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $85,680
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
701 Gardenwood Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+7%)	1mo	$36,200	$20	71
1172 Underwood Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-7%)	5mo	$80,000	$51	61
1218 Maplewood Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-7%)	0mo	$70,000	$45	61
352 Applewood Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,792 (+7%)	5mo	$96,000	$54	58
807 Fernwood Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,730 (+3%)	5mo	$82,000	$47	58
472 Chestnut Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-13%)	8mo	$75,000	$52	51
1009 Ridgewood	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,461 (-13%)	1mo	$50,000	$34	49
779 Fernwood Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+10%)	8mo	$94,900	$51	46
625 Birchwood Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-13%)	9mo	$45,000	$31	45
901 Hollywood Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-13%)	2mo	$82,000	$56	44
519 Applewood Dr #519	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-13%)	5mo	$42,500	$29	44
837 Willowbrook Dr	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,904 (+13%)	6mo	$107,000	$56	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $22,502
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.79×
• Total profit: $70,319
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14094

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 357
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,502 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $566

Break-even live

Break-even rent $786

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $628	-5% $597	+0% $566	+5% $535	+10% $504
Rent	-10% $447	-5% $506	+0% $566	+5% $625	+10% $684
Rate	-1.0pp $611	-0.5pp $589	base $566	+0.5pp $542	+1.0pp $519

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5834 S Transit Rd Lockport, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	2d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $89,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,030
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,442
• − Management: −$1,442
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $5,696
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,367
• After-tax cash flow: $5,421/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home is in average condition with some cosmetic repairs needed. It offers a spacious layout with central air and a cozy family room. The property has a one-car garage and a private back deck, making it ideal for a family or investor looking for a move-in-ready home.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint touch-ups — Light wear on exterior siding
• Minor Landscaping — Some overgrown bushes

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint touch-ups · Light wear on exterior siding	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Some overgrown bushes	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockport City School District
• NCES district ID: 3617670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,793
• Composite: 39.28/100
• National rank: #3997
• State rank: #452 of 590 in NY

Livability — South Lockport

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #633
• US rank: #11642

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Lockport, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 50,153
• Household income: $75,427
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1112.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.57%
• Current HPI: 303.6109
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $89,900 WNYREIS