16221 Bottle Rock · Cobb, CA 95426

$215,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1952 6,534 sqft lot $207/sqft · 19% below area Est $265k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to Your Own Mountain Retreat Tucked away from the noise of everyday life, this charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath cabin offers the perfect blend of rustic character and natural beauty. Step inside to cozy cabin-feel interiors, then out onto a spacious front deck where the sights and sounds of nature become your backdrop. Adventure awaits just minutes away hiking trails, golf, and the legendary Harbin Hot Springs are all within easy reach. And for those who love to put their personal stamp on a home, the kitchen is ready for your vision with brand-new cabinets awaiting installation. This is your chance to create the getaway you've always imagined.

Key facts

• Brand-new cabinets
• Spacious front deck
• Hiking trails

Tags

• SPACIOUS FRONT DECK
• HIKING TRAILS
• BRAND-NEW CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $308 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.3% in Cobb — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#589 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Middletown Unified (rural): math 24% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #291 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $126 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.46%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,387
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -18.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16520 Schwartz Rd	0.44mi	2/1.0	1,072 (+3%)	10mo	$299,000	$279	66
10000 Meadow Dr	0.29mi	2/1.0	1,020 (-2%)	23mo	$220,000	$216	64
16035 Madrone Blvd	0.26mi	2/1.0	912 (-12%)	14mo	$325,000	$356	56
16121 Golf Rd	0.58mi	2/2.0	960 (-8%)	6mo	$218,000	$227	51
10352 Twin Oaks	0.70mi	2/1.0	1,100 (+6%)	9mo	$135,000	$123	51
15860 Bottle Rock Rd	0.46mi	2/1.0	967 (-7%)	20mo	$275,000	$284	50
15885 Bottle Rock Rd	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,170 (+12%)	6mo	$280,000	$239	50
9431 Kelsey Creek Dr W	0.59mi	2/1.0	1,104 (+6%)	21mo	$252,000	$228	45
9395 Gordon Springs Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,170 (+12%)	18mo	$304,000	$260	32
16221 Niblick Rd	0.62mi	2/2.5	1,152 (+11%)	22mo	$230,000	$200	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $6,976
• Equity at exit: $55,717

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $52,478
• Equity at exit: $61,827

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95426

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,144 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,234/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $308

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,755

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $215,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $215,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $215,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $215,000 Active 43 DOM
18. 2026-04-27
    listed $215,000 Active 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    Escape to Your Own Mountain Retreat Tucked away from the noise of everyday life, this charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath cabin offers the perfect blend of rustic character and natural beauty. Step inside to cozy cabin-feel interiors, then out onto a spacious front deck where the sights and sounds of nature become your backdrop. Adventure awaits just minutes away hiking trails, golf, and the legendary Harbin Hot Springs are all within easy reach. And for those who love to put their personal stamp on a home, the kitchen is ready for your vision with brand-new cabinets awaiting installation. This is your chance to create the getaway you've always imagined.

19. 2026-04-17
    listed $215,000 Active 664-char remark

    Show marketing remark (664 chars)

    Escape to Your Own Mountain Retreat Tucked away from the noise of everyday life, this charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath cabin offers the perfect blend of rustic character and natural beauty. Step inside to cozy cabin-feel interiors, then out onto a spacious front deck where the sights and sounds of nature become your backdrop. Adventure awaits just minutes away — hiking trails, golf, and the legendary Harbin Hot Springs are all within easy reach. And for those who love to put their personal stamp on a home, the kitchen is ready for your vision with brand-new cabinets awaiting installation. This is your chance to create the getaway you've always imagined.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,234 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,634 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$400/yr (+$33/mo · 32.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 36 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,734
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,234
• − Insurance: −$1,872
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,059
• − Management: −$2,059
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $212
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$51
• After-tax cash flow: $3,643/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown Unified
• NCES district ID: 0624750
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,451
• Composite: 28.92/100
• National rank: #6632
• State rank: #291 of 517 in CA

Livability — Cobb

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #589
• US rank: #19147

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cobb, CA
• City population: 1,265
• Population (ZIP): 1,265

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 6% Pacific Islander 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Iranian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.63%
• Current HPI: 145.2378
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $215,000 BAREIS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $215,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,234 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.