410 Brighton Ave · Bellair-Meadowbrook Terrace, FL 32073

$119,600

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,258 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1962 10,018 sqft lot Est $228k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This house needs work! This 3-bed, 1-bath large block house offers 1258 sq ft of solid fixer-upper potential. Featuring several additions, customize to your taste or make it a solid fix & flip. Located in a quiet neighborhood, enjoy serene living near amenities. Transform this gem into your dream home!

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1962

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces); Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity available; Water available; Sewer available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; entry on level 1
• Construction: Block and frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Back yard with chain link fencing; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: No built-in appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $207 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.3% in Bellair-Meadowbrook Terrace — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: W E Cherry Elementary School (math 58% / reading 57%, grade C+, #764 of 2,144 statewide, top 36%, 641 students, 100% FRL); Orange Park Junior High School (math 38% / reading 45%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 744 students, 100% FRL); Orange Park High School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #321 of 667 statewide, top 49%, 1,810 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 46% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Clay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 249 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $827 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $120k implies a 570% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,248 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.43%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $227,698
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
295 Blairmore Blvd E	0.17mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,256 (-0%)	1mo	$205,000	$163	84
411 Brighton Ave	0.03mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,196 (-5%)	0mo	$132,000	$110	81
366 Blairmore Blvd E	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,294 (+3%)	0mo	$280,000	$216	77
279 Bonnlyn Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,338 (+6%)	1mo	$205,000	$153	71
205 Noel Rd	0.51mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,227 (-2%)	3mo	$245,000	$200	62
1968 Swallow Run W	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,219 (-3%)	0mo	$259,900	$213	60
583 Clermont Ave S	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-1%)	2mo	$265,000	$212	59
1959 Birch Run E	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,370 (+9%)	2mo	$260,000	$190	55
201 Saturn Ln N	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,287 (+2%)	5mo	$223,000	$173	53
1954 Hazelnut Run E	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,131 (-10%)	4mo	$204,500	$181	52
479 Alsey Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,390 (+10%)	1mo	$180,019	$130	49
213 Hilltop Dr	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,084 (-14%)	4mo	$145,000	$134	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-10,253
• Equity at exit: $17,833

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-7,666
• Equity at exit: $10,341

Cash invested: $33,488 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32073

• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 249
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,416 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,813/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,154

Max offer price $119,600

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,900
• Closing costs: $3,588
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
220 Woodside Dr Orange Park, FL	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,200	$1.11	24d	1	0.12mi
295 Blairmore Blvd Orange Park, FL	3.0	1.5	960	$1,650	$1.72	2d	1	0.17mi
342 Linden Ln Orange Park, FL	2.0	1.0	891	$1,200	$1.35	24d	1	0.19mi
222 Blairmore Blvd Orange Park, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,175	$1.18	2d	9	0.28mi
198 Arora Blvd Orange Park, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	890	$1,494	$1.68	2d	20	0.31mi
482 Bentwood Ln Unit C Orange Park, FL	2.0	1.5	920	$995	$1.08	12d	1	0.53mi
671 Custer Cir Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1621	$1,949	$1.20	15d	1	0.57mi
417 Gano Ave Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,900	$1.40	24d	1	0.59mi
476 Lombard St Unit 2D Orange Park, FL	2.0	1.5	960	$1,195	$1.24	24d	1	0.59mi
470 Crabapple Ct Unit D Orange Park, FL	2.0	1.5	920	$1,175	$1.28	24d	1	0.60mi
470 Crabapple Ct Unit D Orange Park, FL	2.0	1.5	920	$1,175	$1.28	15d	1	0.60mi
808 Meadowbrook Dr Unit C Orange Park, FL	2.0	1.0	876	$1,300	$1.48	24d	1	0.64mi
1967 Bluebird Run W Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,860	$1.27	4d	1	0.65mi
2150 Spencer Rd Orange Park, FL	2.0	1.0	1140	$1,304	$1.14	2d	4	0.68mi
435 Sigsbee Rd Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,800	$1.23	24d	1	0.71mi
460 Bentwood Ln Unit C Orange Park, FL	2.0	1.5	922	$1,050	$1.14	24d	1	0.73mi
495 Sigsbee Rd Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,675	$1.34	24d	1	0.74mi
453 Bentwood Ln Unit B Orange Park, FL	2.0	1.5	921	$1,000	$1.09	24d	1	0.76mi
459 Lombard St Unit 1B Orange Park, FL	2.0	1.5	920	$1,250	$1.36	24d	1	0.77mi
459 Lombard St Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.0	920	$1,250	$1.36	24d	1	0.77mi
1800 Kingsley Ave Orange Park, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,450	$1.47	24d	1	0.86mi
2020 Wells Rd Orange Park, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1167	$1,298	$1.11	21d	8	0.86mi
1747 Papaya Dr N Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,895	$1.49	8d	1	1.18mi
8550 Argyle Business Loop Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1486	$1,675	$1.13	14d	1	1.26mi
8550 Argyle Business Loop Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1486	$1,735	$1.17	16d	3	1.28mi
8550 Argyle Business Loop Jacksonville, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5–3.0	1331	$1,350	$1.01	2d	2	1.28mi
1517 Slash Pine Ct Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1313	$1,845	$1.41	4d	1	1.28mi
227 Kettering Ct Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,600	$1.26	8d	1	1.32mi
8500 Argyle Business Loop Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	921	$1,238	$1.34	24d	1	1.35mi
8529 Sturbridge Cir W Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1264	$1,550	$1.23	24d	1	1.38mi
85 Debarry Ave Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.5	1170	$1,295	$1.11	24d	1	1.39mi
8562 Sturbridge Cir W Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1408	$1,620	$1.15	4d	1	1.41mi
8550 Sturbridge Cir W Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.5	1206	$1,500	$1.24	8d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,600 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,600 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,600 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,600 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,600 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,600 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,600 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,600 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,600 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,600 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,600 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,600 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,600 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-04-02
    status Active
16. 2026-02-09
    status Active
17. 2026-01-28
    status Pending
18. 2026-01-28
    historical
19. 2025-12-08
    listed $119,600 Active
20. 2024-06-20
    status Pending 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    This house needs work! This 3-bed, 1-bath large block house offers 1258 sq ft of solid fixer-upper potential. Featuring several additions, customize to your taste or make it a solid fix & flip. Located in a quiet neighborhood, enjoy serene living near amenities. Transform this gem into your dream home!

21. 2024-06-20
    historical 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    This house needs work! This 3-bed, 1-bath large block house offers 1258 sq ft of solid fixer-upper potential. Featuring several additions, customize to your taste or make it a solid fix & flip. Located in a quiet neighborhood, enjoy serene living near amenities. Transform this gem into your dream home!

22. 2024-06-17
    price $129,000 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    This house needs work! This 3-bed, 1-bath large block house offers 1258 sq ft of solid fixer-upper potential. Featuring several additions, customize to your taste or make it a solid fix & flip. Located in a quiet neighborhood, enjoy serene living near amenities. Transform this gem into your dream home!

23. 2024-06-13
    price $135,000 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    This house needs work! This 3-bed, 1-bath large block house offers 1258 sq ft of solid fixer-upper potential. Featuring several additions, customize to your taste or make it a solid fix & flip. Located in a quiet neighborhood, enjoy serene living near amenities. Transform this gem into your dream home!

24. 2024-05-23
    price $139,000 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    This house needs work! This 3-bed, 1-bath large block house offers 1258 sq ft of solid fixer-upper potential. Featuring several additions, customize to your taste or make it a solid fix & flip. Located in a quiet neighborhood, enjoy serene living near amenities. Transform this gem into your dream home!

25. 2024-05-07
    listed $149,000 Active 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    This house needs work! This 3-bed, 1-bath large block house offers 1258 sq ft of solid fixer-upper potential. Featuring several additions, customize to your taste or make it a solid fix & flip. Located in a quiet neighborhood, enjoy serene living near amenities. Transform this gem into your dream home!

26. 1979-01-01
    soldstatus $17,856

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,813 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,813 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,994
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,699
• − Property taxes: −$2,813
• − Insurance: −$598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,360
• − Management: −$1,360
• − Depreciation: −$3,479
• Taxable income: $685
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$164
• After-tax cash flow: $2,323/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bellair-Meadowbrook Terrace

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellair-Meadowbrook Terrace, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 42,825
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,561
• Household income: $76,455
• Rent vs Own: 37.1% rent · 62.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1544.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.76%
• Current HPI: 289.8735
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.87%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+569.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-02-09 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-01-28 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $119,600 realMLS
• 2024-06-20 Pending — realMLS
• 2024-06-20 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2024-06-17 Price Changed $129,000 realMLS
• 2024-06-13 Price Changed $135,000 realMLS
• 2024-05-23 Price Changed $139,000 realMLS
• 2024-05-07 Listed $149,000 realMLS
• 1979-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,856 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,813 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.