3557 Coveview Dr · Hill, MI 48635

$130,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily · 60 Days on market

Built 1981 1.00 ac lot $133/sqft · 25% below area Est $174k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THREE BEDROOM ONE BATH approx. 980 sq. ft. home on one acre in a quiet subdivision with shared access to ~50 acre East Twin Lake in Ogemaw County. The home features a newer furnace (3 years), an approx. 300 sq. ft. partially finished rec room, a large yard, central air, and a detached 24x24 frame built garage.

Key facts

• Large yard
• 1 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• PARTIALLY FINISHED REC ROOM
• LARGE YARD
• DETACHED FRAME BUILT GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Built on crawl space
• Exterior features: Deck; Cleared lot; Waterfront access on East Twin Lake; Has a view; Gravel road; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Baseboard, electric and forced air heating; Propane heating available
• Interior features: Window treatments; Crawl space/block basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-690/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (25.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $97k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• West Branch-Rose City Area Schools (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #306 of 540 in MI (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rose City School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #606 of 1,397 statewide, top 48%, 115 students, 77% FRL); Surline Middle School (math 21% / reading 44%, grade F, #314 of 493 statewide, top 64%, 582 students, 70% FRL); Ogemaw Heights High School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 573 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 53% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 57 units permitted in Ogemaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ogemaw County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $96,602 (25.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.89%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,753
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -25.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3427 Deerfield Ln	0.74mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,000 (+2%)	21mo	$205,000	$205	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-24,760
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-26,409
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48635

• Home prices YoY: -21.7%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $966 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,017/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,039

Max offer price $119,846

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $16	-5% $-21	+0% $-57	+5% $-94	+10% $-131
Rent	-10% $-134	-5% $-96	+0% $-57	+5% $-19	+10% $19
Rate	-1.0pp $8	-0.5pp $-24	base $-57	+0.5pp $-91	+1.0pp $-125

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $130,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $130,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   status $130,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active Under Contract 54 DOM

   Show marketing remark (311 chars)

   THREE BEDROOM ONE BATH approx. 980 sq. ft. home on one acre in a quiet subdivision with shared access to ~50 acre East Twin Lake in Ogemaw County. The home features a newer furnace (3 years), an approx. 300 sq. ft. partially finished rec room, a large yard, central air, and a detached 24x24 frame built garage.

8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active Under Contract 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $130,000 Active Under Contract 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $130,000 Active Under Contract 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $130,000 Active Under Contract 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active Under Contract 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active Under Contract 45 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $130,000 Active Under Contract 42 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active Under Contract 41 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active Under Contract 40 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active Under Contract 39 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active Under Contract 38 DOM
19. 2026-05-14
    historical Active Under Contract 311-char remark

    Show marketing remark (311 chars)

    THREE BEDROOM ONE BATH approx. 980 sq. ft. home on one acre in a quiet subdivision with shared access to ~50 acre East Twin Lake in Ogemaw County. The home features a newer furnace (3 years), an approx. 300 sq. ft. partially finished rec room, a large yard, central air, and a detached 24x24 frame built garage.

20. 2026-05-14
    historical Accepting Backup Offers 311-char remark

    Show marketing remark (311 chars)

    THREE BEDROOM ONE BATH approx. 980 sq. ft. home on one acre in a quiet subdivision with shared access to ~50 acre East Twin Lake in Ogemaw County. The home features a newer furnace (3 years), an approx. 300 sq. ft. partially finished rec room, a large yard, central air, and a detached 24x24 frame built garage.

21. 2026-04-22
    listed $130,000 Active 311-char remark

    Show marketing remark (311 chars)

    THREE BEDROOM ONE BATH approx. 980 sq. ft. home on one acre in a quiet subdivision with shared access to ~50 acre East Twin Lake in Ogemaw County. The home features a newer furnace (3 years), an approx. 300 sq. ft. partially finished rec room, a large yard, central air, and a detached 24x24 frame built garage.

22. 2026-04-22
    listed $130,000 Active 311-char remark

    Show marketing remark (311 chars)

    THREE BEDROOM ONE BATH approx. 980 sq. ft. home on one acre in a quiet subdivision with shared access to ~50 acre East Twin Lake in Ogemaw County. The home features a newer furnace (3 years), an approx. 300 sq. ft. partially finished rec room, a large yard, central air, and a detached 24x24 frame built garage.

23. 2016-10-25
    listed $48,900

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Great weekend getaway or year-round living! Enjoy the lake views and access to East Twin Lakes. Quick walk to the Green Briar Golf Course and Rifle River Recreation area. This home features 3 bedrooms, first floor laundry, and new appliances. The well, furnace and central air have all been replaced in the last 8 yrs. Heat provided by LP forced air or you can use the electric baseboard heat. Hunting, fishing, boating, golfing or just plain relaxing, this house fits the bill!

24. 2016-10-25
    listed $48,900

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Great weekend getaway or year-round living! Enjoy the lake views and access to East Twin Lakes. Quick walk to the Green Briar Golf Course and Rifle River Recreation area. This home features 3 bedrooms, first floor laundry, and new appliances. The well, furnace and central air have all been replaced in the last 8 yrs. Heat provided by LP forced air or you can use the electric baseboard heat. Hunting, fishing, boating, golfing or just plain relaxing, this house fits the bill!

25. 2016-09-01
    historical
26. 2016-09-01
    historical
27. 2015-08-11
    listed $45,000
28. 2015-08-11
    listed $45,000
29. 2015-07-11
    historical
30. 2015-07-11
    historical
31. 2013-12-11
    listed $49,500
32. 2013-12-11
    listed $49,500
33. 2013-10-29
    historical
34. 2013-04-29
    listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,017 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,509 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$493/yr (+$41/mo · 48.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,592
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,017
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$927
• − Management: −$927
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$2,993
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$718
• After-tax cash flow: $29/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Branch-Rose City Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2635850
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,145
• Composite: 29.15/100
• National rank: #6580
• State rank: #306 of 540 in MI

Livability — Hill

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,535

Population outlook (Ogemaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,373 people
• By 2030: 18,348 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 16,176 · -16.5%
• By 2050: 14,294 · -26.2%
• By 2075: 11,280 · -41.8%
• By 2100: 8,942 · -53.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ogemaw

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.0) · D 28.4% · R 70.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.4pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.0 2020: R+40.1 2016: R+36.6 2012: R+6.2 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.11%
• Current HPI: 270.5525
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+117.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-06-15 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-14 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-14 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $130,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $130,000 REALCOMP
• 2016-10-25 Listed $48,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-10-25 Listed $48,900 REALCOMP
• 2016-09-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-09-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2015-08-11 Listed $45,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-08-11 Listed $45,000 REALCOMP
• 2015-07-11 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2015-07-11 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2013-12-11 Listed $49,500 REALCOMP
• 2013-12-11 Listed $49,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2013-10-29 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2013-04-29 Listed $59,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,017 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.