3404 E State Hwy 154 · Gilmer, TX 75644

$249,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,852 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 320 Days on market

Built 1978 1.46 ac lot $135/sqft · 15% below area Est $294k · 15% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on 1.46 acres just outside the city limits! Built in 1970 and lovingly maintained, this well-cared-for property offers peaceful country living with plenty of room to roam. There's space for a livestock animal or two—perfect for 4H and FFA projects. The home features a cozy layout, spacious kitchen, and bright, inviting living areas. Enjoy the flexibility and convenience of both a private water well and public water service. Outside, you'll find mature trees, a storage shed, and plenty of space for gardening, small-scale farming, or simply relaxing in the fresh air. Located just minutes from town with all the charm of rural life—this one is a must-see! * Interior walls are all insulated with 1/4" sheet rock and then oak paneling. * A/C is up to code and duct work is insulated.

Key facts

• Public water service
• Storage shed
• Fenced pasture

Tags

• PRIVATE WATER WELL
• PUBLIC WATER SERVICE
• MATURE TREES
• FENCED PASTURE
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-536 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (37.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (41.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (41.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.8% in Gilmer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,257 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Gilmer ISD (town): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #372 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gilmer El (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 1,179 students, 81% FRL); Bruce J H (math 44% / reading 40%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 429 students, 78% FRL); Gilmer H S (math 63% / reading 53%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 815 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 54% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 209 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 320 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,336 (41.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 320 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.18%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $293,579
• List price: $249,999
• Delta: -14.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $102,039
• Equity at exit: $225,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.68×
• Total profit: $327,303
• Equity at exit: $485,693

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75644

• Home prices YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,453 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$269 /mo · $3,223/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $-536

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,131

Max offer price $155,384

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-394	-5% $-465	+0% $-536	+5% $-606	+10% $-677
Rent	-10% $-650	-5% $-593	+0% $-536	+5% $-478	+10% $-421
Rate	-1.0pp $-410	-0.5pp $-472	base $-536	+0.5pp $-600	+1.0pp $-666

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,999 Active 320 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,999 Active 319 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,999 Active 318 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,999 Active 317 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $249,999 Active 314 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $249,999 Active 313 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $249,999 Active 312 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,999 Active 311 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $249,999 Active 310 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,999 Active 309 DOM
11. 2026-05-04
    status Pending 837-char remark

    Show marketing remark (837 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on 1.46 acres just outside the city limits! Built in 1970 and lovingly maintained, this well-cared-for property offers peaceful country living with plenty of room to roam. There's space for a livestock animal or two—perfect for 4H and FFA projects. The home features a cozy layout, spacious kitchen, and bright, inviting living areas. Enjoy the flexibility and convenience of both a private water well and public water service. Outside, you'll find mature trees, a storage shed, and plenty of space for gardening, small-scale farming, or simply relaxing in the fresh air. Located just minutes from town with all the charm of rural life—this one is a must-see! * Interior walls are all insulated with 1/4" sheet rock and then oak paneling. * A/C is up to code and duct work is insulated.

12. 2026-02-26
    status Active 794-char remark

    Show marketing remark (794 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on 1.46 acres just outside the city limits! Built in 1970 and well cared for over the years, this property offers peaceful country living with plenty of room to roam. Bring a livestock animal or two—there’s space for them here! The home features a cozy layout, spacious kitchen, and inviting living area filled with natural light. Enjoy the convenience of both a private water well and public water service. Outdoors, enjoy mature trees, fenced pasture, a storage shed, and endless possibilities for gardening or small homesteading. Just minutes from town, but with all the charm of rural life—come take a look! * Interior walls are all insulated with 1/4" sheet rock and then oak paneling. * A/C is up to code and duct work is insulated.

13. 2026-02-13
    price $249,999 794-char remark

    Show marketing remark (837 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on 1.46 acres just outside the city limits! Built in 1970 and lovingly maintained, this well-cared-for property offers peaceful country living with plenty of room to roam. There's space for a livestock animal or two—perfect for 4H and FFA projects. The home features a cozy layout, spacious kitchen, and bright, inviting living areas. Enjoy the flexibility and convenience of both a private water well and public water service. Outside, you'll find mature trees, a storage shed, and plenty of space for gardening, small-scale farming, or simply relaxing in the fresh air. Located just minutes from town with all the charm of rural life—this one is a must-see! * Interior walls are all insulated with 1/4" sheet rock and then oak paneling. * A/C is up to code and duct work is insulated.

14. 2026-02-13
    price $249,999 837-char remark

    Show marketing remark (837 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on 1.46 acres just outside the city limits! Built in 1970 and lovingly maintained, this well-cared-for property offers peaceful country living with plenty of room to roam. There's space for a livestock animal or two—perfect for 4H and FFA projects. The home features a cozy layout, spacious kitchen, and bright, inviting living areas. Enjoy the flexibility and convenience of both a private water well and public water service. Outside, you'll find mature trees, a storage shed, and plenty of space for gardening, small-scale farming, or simply relaxing in the fresh air. Located just minutes from town with all the charm of rural life—this one is a must-see! * Interior walls are all insulated with 1/4" sheet rock and then oak paneling. * A/C is up to code and duct work is insulated.

15. 2026-01-13
    price $269,500 794-char remark

    Show marketing remark (837 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on 1.46 acres just outside the city limits! Built in 1970 and lovingly maintained, this well-cared-for property offers peaceful country living with plenty of room to roam. There's space for a livestock animal or two—perfect for 4H and FFA projects. The home features a cozy layout, spacious kitchen, and bright, inviting living areas. Enjoy the flexibility and convenience of both a private water well and public water service. Outside, you'll find mature trees, a storage shed, and plenty of space for gardening, small-scale farming, or simply relaxing in the fresh air. Located just minutes from town with all the charm of rural life—this one is a must-see! * Interior walls are all insulated with 1/4" sheet rock and then oak paneling. * A/C is up to code and duct work is insulated.

16. 2026-01-13
    price $269,500 837-char remark

    Show marketing remark (837 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on 1.46 acres just outside the city limits! Built in 1970 and lovingly maintained, this well-cared-for property offers peaceful country living with plenty of room to roam. There's space for a livestock animal or two—perfect for 4H and FFA projects. The home features a cozy layout, spacious kitchen, and bright, inviting living areas. Enjoy the flexibility and convenience of both a private water well and public water service. Outside, you'll find mature trees, a storage shed, and plenty of space for gardening, small-scale farming, or simply relaxing in the fresh air. Located just minutes from town with all the charm of rural life—this one is a must-see! * Interior walls are all insulated with 1/4" sheet rock and then oak paneling. * A/C is up to code and duct work is insulated.

17. 2025-11-19
    price $279,500 794-char remark

    Show marketing remark (837 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on 1.46 acres just outside the city limits! Built in 1970 and lovingly maintained, this well-cared-for property offers peaceful country living with plenty of room to roam. There's space for a livestock animal or two—perfect for 4H and FFA projects. The home features a cozy layout, spacious kitchen, and bright, inviting living areas. Enjoy the flexibility and convenience of both a private water well and public water service. Outside, you'll find mature trees, a storage shed, and plenty of space for gardening, small-scale farming, or simply relaxing in the fresh air. Located just minutes from town with all the charm of rural life—this one is a must-see! * Interior walls are all insulated with 1/4" sheet rock and then oak paneling. * A/C is up to code and duct work is insulated.

18. 2025-11-19
    price $279,500 837-char remark

    Show marketing remark (837 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on 1.46 acres just outside the city limits! Built in 1970 and lovingly maintained, this well-cared-for property offers peaceful country living with plenty of room to roam. There's space for a livestock animal or two—perfect for 4H and FFA projects. The home features a cozy layout, spacious kitchen, and bright, inviting living areas. Enjoy the flexibility and convenience of both a private water well and public water service. Outside, you'll find mature trees, a storage shed, and plenty of space for gardening, small-scale farming, or simply relaxing in the fresh air. Located just minutes from town with all the charm of rural life—this one is a must-see! * Interior walls are all insulated with 1/4" sheet rock and then oak paneling. * A/C is up to code and duct work is insulated.

19. 2025-08-14
    price $279,899 794-char remark

    Show marketing remark (837 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on 1.46 acres just outside the city limits! Built in 1970 and lovingly maintained, this well-cared-for property offers peaceful country living with plenty of room to roam. There's space for a livestock animal or two—perfect for 4H and FFA projects. The home features a cozy layout, spacious kitchen, and bright, inviting living areas. Enjoy the flexibility and convenience of both a private water well and public water service. Outside, you'll find mature trees, a storage shed, and plenty of space for gardening, small-scale farming, or simply relaxing in the fresh air. Located just minutes from town with all the charm of rural life—this one is a must-see! * Interior walls are all insulated with 1/4" sheet rock and then oak paneling. * A/C is up to code and duct work is insulated.

20. 2025-08-14
    price $279,899 837-char remark

    Show marketing remark (837 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on 1.46 acres just outside the city limits! Built in 1970 and lovingly maintained, this well-cared-for property offers peaceful country living with plenty of room to roam. There's space for a livestock animal or two—perfect for 4H and FFA projects. The home features a cozy layout, spacious kitchen, and bright, inviting living areas. Enjoy the flexibility and convenience of both a private water well and public water service. Outside, you'll find mature trees, a storage shed, and plenty of space for gardening, small-scale farming, or simply relaxing in the fresh air. Located just minutes from town with all the charm of rural life—this one is a must-see! * Interior walls are all insulated with 1/4" sheet rock and then oak paneling. * A/C is up to code and duct work is insulated.

21. 2025-07-15
    listed $279,900 Active 837-char remark

    Show marketing remark (837 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on 1.46 acres just outside the city limits! Built in 1970 and lovingly maintained, this well-cared-for property offers peaceful country living with plenty of room to roam. There's space for a livestock animal or two—perfect for 4H and FFA projects. The home features a cozy layout, spacious kitchen, and bright, inviting living areas. Enjoy the flexibility and convenience of both a private water well and public water service. Outside, you'll find mature trees, a storage shed, and plenty of space for gardening, small-scale farming, or simply relaxing in the fresh air. Located just minutes from town with all the charm of rural life—this one is a must-see! * Interior walls are all insulated with 1/4" sheet rock and then oak paneling. * A/C is up to code and duct work is insulated.

22. 2025-07-14
    listed $279,900 Active 794-char remark

    Show marketing remark (794 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on 1.46 acres just outside the city limits! Built in 1970 and well cared for over the years, this property offers peaceful country living with plenty of room to roam. Bring a livestock animal or two—there’s space for them here! The home features a cozy layout, spacious kitchen, and inviting living area filled with natural light. Enjoy the convenience of both a private water well and public water service. Outdoors, enjoy mature trees, fenced pasture, a storage shed, and endless possibilities for gardening or small homesteading. Just minutes from town, but with all the charm of rural life—come take a look! * Interior walls are all insulated with 1/4" sheet rock and then oak paneling. * A/C is up to code and duct work is insulated.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,223 · $269/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,352/yr (+$113/mo · 42.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 51% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,223
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,395
• − Management: −$1,395
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$11,099
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,664
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,763/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilmer ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820700
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,724
• Composite: 35.04/100
• National rank: #5038
• State rank: #372 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gilmer

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1257
• US rank: #21903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,785

Population outlook (Upshur County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,771 people
• By 2030: 43,788 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 45,574 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 46,683 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 49,137 · +14.9%
• By 2100: 47,457 · +11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Upshur

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.2% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+68.5 2016: R+68.0 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.46%
• Current HPI: 300.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-02-26 Relisted — LAAR
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $249,999 LAAR
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $249,999 GTAR
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $269,500 LAAR
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $269,500 GTAR
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $279,500 LAAR
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $279,500 GTAR
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $279,899 LAAR
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $279,899 GTAR
• 2025-07-15 Listed $279,900 GTAR
• 2025-07-14 Listed $279,900 LAAR

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,223 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.