5111 Ash Dr · Pocono Pines, PA 18346

$235,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1986 0.38 ac lot Est $246k · at est. $108/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the desirable Stillwater Lake Estates community, This cozy 3 bedroom 1 bath home is one you don't want to miss. Brand New ROOF, Enjoy the spacious front and back yard surrounded by woods for great privacy, and a short walk to the tennis courts on the lake. Close to ALL Pocono attractions!!! Easy commute and low maintenance makes for a great vacation home or investment property. Amenities include lake, beach, fishing, clubhouse, tennis, volleyball, basketball and picnic area, security services and 24 hour surveillance. Bring your touches! SOLD AS IS!

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Convenient access
• Spa retreat

Tags

• GAME ROOM
• SPA RETREAT
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.0% in Pocono Pines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#532 in PA, #4,925 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $235k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $231,475 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.82%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $246,272
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1167 Trapper Ln	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,092 (-8%)	1mo	$263,000	$241	76
5007 Holiday Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-3%)	6mo	$235,000	$204	71
1198 Chickadee Dr	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,264 (+7%)	22mo	$189,500	$150	67
483 Alter Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-1%)	11mo	$340,000	$289	67
5005 Holiday Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,235 (+4%)	14mo	$230,000	$186	63
363 Sidney Ave	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,296 (+10%)	1mo	$270,000	$208	56
358 Sidney Ave	0.58mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,293 (+9%)	13mo	$273,000	$211	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $20,552
• Equity at exit: $86,854

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $82,873
• Equity at exit: $120,733

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18346

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,340 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$255 /mo · $3,065/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,144

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $108 · $1,296/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   status Active
3. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-30
   listed $235,000 Active
5. 2022-03-28
   soldstatus $155,000 567-char remark

   Show marketing remark (567 chars)

   Located in the desirable Stillwater Lake Estates community, This cozy 3 bedroom 1 bath home is one you don't want to miss. Brand New ROOF, Enjoy the spacious front and back yard surrounded by woods for great privacy, and a short walk to the tennis courts on the lake. Close to ALL Pocono attractions!!! Easy commute and low maintenance makes for a great vacation home or investment property. Amenities include lake, beach, fishing, clubhouse, tennis, volleyball, basketball and picnic area, security services and 24 hour surveillance. Bring your touches! SOLD AS IS!

6. 2021-12-31
   listed $145,000 567-char remark

   Show marketing remark (567 chars)

   Located in the desirable Stillwater Lake Estates community, This cozy 3 bedroom 1 bath home is one you don't want to miss. Brand New ROOF, Enjoy the spacious front and back yard surrounded by woods for great privacy, and a short walk to the tennis courts on the lake. Close to ALL Pocono attractions!!! Easy commute and low maintenance makes for a great vacation home or investment property. Amenities include lake, beach, fishing, clubhouse, tennis, volleyball, basketball and picnic area, security services and 24 hour surveillance. Bring your touches! SOLD AS IS!

7. 2009-02-23
   soldstatus $117,000
8. 2000-06-12
   soldstatus $78,000
9. 1994-10-24
   soldstatus $72,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,065 · $255/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,389 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$324/yr (+$27/mo · 10.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,076
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,065
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,246
• − Management: −$2,246
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$1,952
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$469
• After-tax cash flow: $2,324/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Pocono Pines

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #4925

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 595
• Population (ZIP): 2,316

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 2% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 8% Romanian 6% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.54%
• Current HPI: 189.8011
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+226.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — PMAR
• 2026-04-22 Relisted — PMAR
• 2026-04-11 Pending — PMAR
• 2026-03-30 Listed $235,000 PMAR
• 2022-03-28 Sold (MLS) $155,000 PMAR
• 2021-12-31 Listed $145,000 PMAR
• 2009-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $117,000 Public Records
• 2000-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 1994-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,065 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.