43 Paxton Rd · Lake George, NY 12845

$6,000,000

7 bd · 3.5 ba · 4,186 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1895 1.30 ac lot Est $10477k · 43% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

With generous 235' shoreline and 1.3 acres, historic provenance, and zoning that allows for multiple possibilities, The Porches represents a truly rare opportunity to own a significant piece of Lake George history. Timeless architecture, breathtaking lakefront, and generations of stories make this estate unlike anything else currently available on the lake.

Key facts

• Lakefront
• Architecture
• Historic provenance

Tags

• HISTORIC PROVENANCE
• LAKEFRONT
• ARCHITECTURE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking for 6 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Holding tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Lakefront on Lake George
• Construction: Wood siding
• Exterior features: Screened porch; Side porch; Wrap-around porch; Composite deck; Covered porch; Front porch; Exterior lighting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Five bedrooms on the second floor; Two bedrooms on the third floor; Main-level den; Main-level foyer
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms (all on the second floor); One half bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Three fireplaces; 12 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the upper level; Washer/Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 7-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $6.00M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-58k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $5.14M (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $4.00M (33.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $4.00M (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.9% in Lake George — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#788 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Watch: employment C-, cost of living D+, crime D.
• Lake George Central School District (rural): math 68% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #131 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lake George Elementary School (math 62% / reading 82%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 300 students, 24% FRL); Lake George Junior-Senior High School (math 72% / reading 62%, grade B, #746 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 330 students, 19% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $641k of equity ($41k loan paydown + $600k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$1.03M cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($5.82M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $4,000,000 (33.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.47%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $10,477,139
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Antigua Rd	0.81mi	6/5.5 (-1)	3,830 (-8%)	22mo	$7,100,000	$1,854	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $2,955,454
• Equity at exit: $5,405,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.32×
• Total profit: $8,942,067
• Equity at exit: $11,656,680

Cash invested: $1,680,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12845

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $40,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$31,465
• Tax from tax record: −$2,500 /mo · $30,001/yr
• Insurance: −$2,500
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$8,400
• Net cashflow: $-4,865

Break-even live

Break-even rent $46,158

Max offer price $5,140,628

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,468	-5% $-3,166	+0% $-4,865	+5% $-6,563	+10% $-8,261
Rent	-10% $-8,025	-5% $-6,445	+0% $-4,865	+5% $-3,285	+10% $-1,705
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,843	-0.5pp $-3,339	base $-4,865	+0.5pp $-6,419	+1.0pp $-8,001

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,500,000
• Closing costs: $180,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16 Newton St Lake George, NY	6.0	6.0	3058	$40,000	$13.08	45d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $6,000,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $6,000,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $6,000,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $6,000,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $6,000,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $6,000,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $6,000,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $6,000,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $6,000,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $6,000,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $6,000,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $6,000,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $6,000,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $6,000,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $6,000,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $6,000,000 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $6,000,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $30,001 · $2,500/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $65,700 · $5,475/mo
• Expected delta: +$35,700/yr (+$2,975/mo · 119.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $480,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$336,093
• − Property taxes: −$30,001
• − Insurance: −$30,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$38,400
• − Management: −$38,400
• − Depreciation: −$174,545
• Taxable loss: −$167,439
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$40,185
• After-tax cash flow: $-18,191/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake George Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616470
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,873
• Composite: 61.29/100
• National rank: #777
• State rank: #131 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake George

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #788
• US rank: #15111

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime D Employment C- Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,389

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Italian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.18%
• Current HPI: 364.9782
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $6,000,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $30,001 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.