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13212 Keefer Dr
F Composite 32.69
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +10.7/15.0
  • Cash flow +5.7/30.0
  • Condition / age +4.8/5.0
  • Livability +4.1/5.0
  • Schools +3.4/10.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • 1% rule +1.4/10.0
  • DSCR +0.1/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$394,990

13212 Keefer Dr · Austin, TX 78652
4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,903 sqft · SingleFamily · 39 Days on market
Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,530 sqft lot 2-car garage $208/sqft · 7% below area Est $425k · 7% under $86/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 13212 Keefer Drive, a beautiful new construction home located in Manchaca, TX. This residence features 1,903 square feet of living space designed with a functional, single-level layout that emphasizes open areas and easy accessibility. Key Features: • 4 comfortable bedrooms, including an owner's suite tucked into its own private corner for added quiet and seclusion • 2 full bathrooms finished with modern fixtures and high-quality materials • 1,903 square feet of interior space designed with a focus on easy transitions and flow • Central social hub that joins the kitchen and family room for an open, connected atmosphere • New construction highlighting professional craftsmanship and energy-efficient building standards Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in a welcoming Manchaca community known for its friendly residential atmosphere • Great proximity to local parks and green spaces for staying active and enjoying the outdoors • A well-located spot that balances a quiet retreat with easy access to nature and daily essentials The interior is built for a natural flow, with a broad open area serving as the heart of the home for daily life and hosting guests. Because this is a true single-story floorplan, the move between the social gathering spots and the restful sleeping quarters is effortless. The owner's suite is intentionally placed in a secluded area of the layout, offering a peaceful retreat away from the main. ..

Key facts

  • Open concept
  • Large island
  • 42 inch cabinets

Tags

OPEN CONCEPTLARGE ISLANDQUARTZ COUNTER TOPS42 INCH CABINETSGE STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCESMUDSET OWNER'S SHOWER

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $395k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-803 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (29.4% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (35.5% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $255k (35.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
  • Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
  • Austin ISD (urban): math 33% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #431 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $254,764 (35.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.64%
Cap rate
3.85%
Cash-on-cash
-8.71%
DSCR
0.61
GRM
12.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$424,990
List price
$394,990
Delta
-7.53%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
13101 Geary Dr 0.12mi 4/2.0 1,903 (0%) 6mo $409,990 $215 89
13110 Geary Dr 0.09mi 4/2.0 1,903 (0%) 8mo $429,990 $226 88
13109 Geary Dr 0.11mi 3/2.5 (-1) 1,868 (-2%) 7mo $389,990 $209 79
13105 Geary Dr 0.12mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,739 (-9%) 10mo $419,990 $242 66
13002 Stanford Dr 0.29mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,670 (-12%) 5mo $320,000 $192 56
12902 Mystic Dr 0.29mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,638 (-14%) 4mo $425,000 $259 55
205 Tangled Brush Dr 0.55mi 4/2.5 2,110 (+11%) 4mo $449,000 $213 51
13205 Onion Creek Dr 0.55mi 5/2.0 (+1) 2,112 (+11%) 1mo $650,000 $308 50
605 Turley Dr 0.41mi 3/2.0 (-1) 2,082 (+9%) 12mo $650,000 $312 50
13312 Onion Creek Dr 0.51mi 3/2.0 (-1) 2,016 (+6%) 16mo $595,000 $295 48
13008 Stanford Dr 0.28mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,624 (-15%) 17mo $429,900 $265 43
12608 Stanford Dr 0.51mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,624 (-15%) 14mo $424,000 $261 35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-31.7%
Equity multiple
-0.04×
Total profit
$-115,061
Equity at exit
$58,894
10-year hold
IRR
-35.7%
Equity multiple
-0.50×
Total profit
$-165,682
Equity at exit
$34,152

Cash invested: $110,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
30 active · 9 under contract
Months of supply
12.9 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$397,995 ($209/sqft)
Median days on market
52 d
This list price
47% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+7.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78652

Active inventory
96
Price-to-rent
12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,548 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$2,071
Tax est. 1.5%
$494 /mo · $5,925/yr
Insurance
$165
HOA
$86
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$535
Net cashflow
$-803

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,564
Max offer price $278,787
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-530 -5% $-667 +0% $-803 +5% $-940 +10% $-1,076
Rent -10% $-1,004 -5% $-904 +0% $-803 +5% $-702 +10% $-602
Rate -1.0pp $-604 -0.5pp $-703 base $-803 +0.5pp $-905 +1.0pp $-1,010

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$98,748
Closing costs
$11,850
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 19 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
801 Steel Timber Dr Unit 711 Manchaca, TX 3.0 2.0 1401 $2,140 $1.53 33d 1 0.14mi
801 Steel Timber Dr Unit 312 Manchaca, TX 3.0 2.0 1401 $2,124 $1.52 10d 1 0.15mi
801 Steel Timber Dr Unit 834 Manchaca, TX 3.0 2.0 1401 $2,124 $1.52 25d 1 0.15mi
13004 Bloomington Dr Austin, TX 3.0 2.5 2200 $2,595 $1.18 10d 1 0.28mi
13004 Bloomington Dr Austin, TX 3.0 2.5 2200 $2,595 $1.18 28d 1 0.28mi
12901 Stanford Dr Austin, TX 4.0 2.5 2429 $2,649 $1.09 40d 1 0.32mi
806 Dayton Dr Unit 110 Manchaca, TX 3.0 2.5 1869 $2,395 $1.28 18d 1 0.34mi
12803 Stanford Dr Austin, TX 3.0 2.0 1740 $2,450 $1.41 64d 1 0.36mi
1100 Avenida Mercado St Manchaca, TX 2.0–4.0 2.0 1090 $1,559 $1.43 10d 1 0.43mi
13207 Easley Dr Unit 1039127P Manchaca, TX 4.0 2.0 1797 $7,254 $4.04 26d 1 0.44mi
1200 Estancia Pkwy Austin, TX 3.0 1.0–2.0 960 $2,170 $2.26 10d 23 0.76mi
12407 Altamira St Austin, TX 3.0 2.5 2501 $2,895 $1.16 16d 1 0.77mi
827 Camino Vaquero Pkwy Manchaca, TX 3.0 1.0–2.0 982 $2,587 $2.63 10d 28 0.84mi
601 Puerta Vallarta Ln Austin, TX 3.0 2.0 1843 $2,490 $1.35 93d 1 0.90mi
820 Camino Vaquero Pkwy Austin, TX 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1032 $2,023 $1.96 10d 50 0.93mi
12215 Coronilla Bnd Manchaca, TX 4.0 3.0 2372 $2,895 $1.22 39d 1 1.04mi
12215 Coronilla Bnd Manchaca, TX 4.0 3.0 2372 $2,900 $1.22 73d 1 1.04mi
12215 Coronilla Bnd Manchaca, TX 4.0 3.0 2372 $2,895 $1.22 53d 1 1.04mi
12000 S Interstate 35 Austin, TX 1.0–4.0 1.0–4.0 1294 $2,422 $1.87 10d 43 1.18mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community
Part of Estancia West HOAQuarterly association fee of $257HOA covers common area maintenanceCommunity amenities include pool, playground, park, trails/paths, sidewalks, street lights, community mailboxes and common grounds; internet access available

Exterior

Parking
Attached garage with inside entranceTwo covered garage spaces (2-car garage)Concrete drivewayGarage faces frontGarage door openerSpace for a total of four vehicles
Security
Smoke detectorsCarbon monoxide detectors
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availableNatural gas availableCable and phone availableFiber optic and high-speed internet availableUnderground utilities
Home design
Single-story homeNew construction by M/I HomesFaces eastSlab foundationComposition roof
Construction
Built with brick, HardiPlank-type siding, masonry and stone accentsBlown-in insulation
Exterior features
Private, fenced backyard with gate and privacy fencingFront yard landscaping with sprinklers (front and rear) and rain-sensor irrigationRear covered porchIn-wall pest control systemExterior lightingRain guttersPerimeter fencing options include wood and wrought iron

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherDisposalGas oven and gas rangeSelf-cleaning ovenMicrowaveStainless steel appliancesENERGY STAR qualified appliancesPantryKitchen islandExhaust fan
Bedrooms
Four main-level bedroomsWalk-in closet(s) in primary
Flooring
CarpetTileVinyl
Bathrooms
Two full bathroomsDouble vanity
Heating & cooling
Central heating (natural gas)Zoned heatingCentral air conditioning (electric)Zoned coolingENERGY STAR qualified HVAC/equipment
Interior features
Ceiling fansDouble vanity in bathHigh ceilingsKitchen islandMain-level primary suiteOpen floorplanPantryRecessed lightingSmart thermostatWired for dataHigh speed internetBlindsDouble-pane, low-E energy-efficient windowsWindow screensAccessibility features (see remarks)
Laundry & utility
Main-level laundry roomElectric dryer hookupTankless gas water heaterGas water heater

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $394,990 Active 39 DOM
  2. 2026-08-06
    days on market $394,990 Active 37 DOM
  3. 2026-08-05
    days on market $394,990 Active 36 DOM
  4. 2026-08-04
    days on market $394,990 Active 35 DOM
  5. 2026-08-03
    days on market $394,990 Active 34 DOM
  6. 2026-07-31
    days on market $394,990 Active 31 DOM
  7. 2026-07-30
    days on market $394,990 Active 29 DOM
  8. 2026-07-28
    days on market $394,990 Active 28 DOM
  9. 2026-07-26
    days on market $394,990 Active 26 DOM
  10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $394,990 Active 24 DOM
  11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $394,990 Active 23 DOM
  12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $394,990 Active 22 DOM
  13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $394,990 Active 21 DOM
  14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $394,990 Active 20 DOM
  15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $394,990 Active 18 DOM
  16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $394,990 Active 17 DOM
  17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $394,990 Active 16 DOM
  18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $394,990 Active 15 DOM
  19. 2026-07-14
    pricedays on market $394,990 Active 14 DOM
  20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $392,990 Active 13 DOM
  21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $392,990 Active 12 DOM
  22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $392,990 Active 11 DOM
  23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $392,990 Active 10 DOM
  24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $392,990 Active 9 DOM
  25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $392,990 Active 7 DOM
  26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $392,990 Active 6 DOM
  27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $392,990 Active 5 DOM
  28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $392,990 Active 3 DOM
  29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $392,990 Active 2 DOM
  30. 2026-07-01
    remarks 694-char remark
  31. 2026-07-01
    days on marketlisting id $392,990 Active 1 DOM
  32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $392,990 Active 78 DOM
  33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $392,990 Active 77 DOM
  34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $392,990 Active 76 DOM
  35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $392,990 Active 74 DOM
  36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $392,990 Active 72 DOM
  37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $392,990 Active 70 DOM
  38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $392,990 Active 69 DOM
  39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $392,990 Active 66 DOM
  40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $392,990 Active 65 DOM
  41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $392,990 Active 64 DOM
  42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $392,990 Active 63 DOM
  43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $392,990 Active 61 DOM
  44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $392,990 Active 57 DOM
  45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $392,990 Active 56 DOM
  46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $392,990 Active 55 DOM
  47. 2026-06-05
    days on market $392,990 Active 52 DOM
  48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $392,990 Active 51 DOM
  49. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $392,990 Active 50 DOM
    Show marketing remark (1503 chars)

    Welcome to 13212 Keefer Drive, a beautiful new construction home located in Manchaca, TX. This residence features 1,903 square feet of living space designed with a functional, single-level layout that emphasizes open areas and easy accessibility. Key Features: • 4 comfortable bedrooms, including an owner's suite tucked into its own private corner for added quiet and seclusion • 2 full bathrooms finished with modern fixtures and high-quality materials • 1,903 square feet of interior space designed with a focus on easy transitions and flow • Central social hub that joins the kitchen and family room for an open, connected atmosphere • New construction highlighting professional craftsmanship and energy-efficient building standards Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in a welcoming Manchaca community known for its friendly residential atmosphere • Great proximity to local parks and green spaces for staying active and enjoying the outdoors • A well-located spot that balances a quiet retreat with easy access to nature and daily essentials The interior is built for a natural flow, with a broad open area serving as the heart of the home for daily life and hosting guests. Because this is a true single-story floorplan, the move between the social gathering spots and the restful sleeping quarters is effortless. The owner's suite is intentionally placed in a secluded area of the layout, offering a peaceful retreat away from the main. ..

  50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $409,990 Active 49 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
  • 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$30,572
− Mortgage interest
−$22,126
− Property taxes
−$5,925
− Insurance
−$1,975
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,446
− Management
−$2,446
− HOA
−$1,032
− Depreciation
−$11,491
Taxable loss
−$16,868
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$4,048
After-tax cash flow
$-5,588/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a functional layout. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
  • Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
  • Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability

Schools (NCES district)

District
Austin ISD
NCES district ID
4808940
Math proficiency
33% ▼ -19.00%
Reading proficiency
44% ▼ -7.00%
Median HH income
$54,627
Composite
33.65/100
National rank
#5397
State rank
#431 of 826 in TX
A Composite livability gradescore 82/100

Livability — Austin

Score
82/100
State rank
#16
US rank
#1208

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Austin, TX
County
Travis County · 1,545,133 people
City population
1,066,854
Metro
Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
Population (ZIP)
5,287
Household income
$133,368
Rent vs Own
12.9% rent · 87.1% own

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
1,545,133 people
By 2030
1,729,269 · +11.9%
By 2040
2,097,596 · +35.8%
By 2050
2,463,890 · +59.5%
By 2075
3,249,374 · +110.3%
By 2100
3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
Race & ethnicity
White 47% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 20% Black 4%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 29%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Slovak 2%
Foreign-born
13% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home
73% English-only · Spanish 26% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

2024 margin
Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
2008→2024 swing
+9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
All cycles
2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-4.4% since first listed
4 events — show timeline
  • 2026-06-30 Listed $392,990 Unlock MLS
  • 2026-06-02 Price Changed $392,990 Zillow
  • 2026-05-06 Price Changed $409,990 Zillow
  • 2026-04-14 Listed $410,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…