425 SE Saint Johns St · Lake City, FL 32025

$169,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,133 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1920 9,496 sqft lot Est $129k · 32% over ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Charming 1920 historic home in downtown Lake City! This 2BR home features a Jack & Jill bath, spacious family room with fireplace and room for dining, and an updated kitchen with granite countertops, white cabinets, stainless appliances, and classic black & white tile floors. Enjoy the large screened front porch, metal roof, washer & dryer included, plus a spacious yard with shrubs, carport, and storage shed. Great location close to town!

Key facts

• White cabinets
• Jack and jill bath
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• HISTORIC HOME
• JACK AND JILL BATH
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WHITE CABINETS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage
• Home design: Residential single-story; Frame construction
• Construction: Metal roof; Frame construction
• Exterior features: Screened patio/porch; Shed(s); Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Cooling with ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Refrigerator; Gas cooktop; Microwave; Washer; Carpet flooring; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.7% in Lake City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#304 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $100; list at $170k implies a 169850% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,654 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.51%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $129,162
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
849 NE Maple Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,180 (+4%)	1mo	$95,000	$81	69
211 NE Bradley Ter	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,136 (+0%)	3mo	$125,000	$110	68
773 SE Putnam St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (-1%)	13mo	$70,000	$63	61
823 NE Elsey Pl	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,236 (+9%)	5mo	$265,000	$214	60
214 NE Anderson Ter	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,140 (+1%)	14mo	$129,900	$114	56
627 NE Washington St	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,058 (-7%)	6mo	$132,000	$125	55
530 SE Putnam St	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,284 (+13%)	9mo	$170,000	$132	55
966 SE Brock Gln	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-5%)	13mo	$155,500	$144	52
412 NW Hamilton St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,176 (+4%)	9mo	$185,000	$157	51
1047 SE Putnam St	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,256 (+11%)	3mo	$76,500	$61	48
898 SE Saint Johns St	0.47mi	3/1.0	988 (-13%)	9mo	$47,500	$48	45
352 NW Hillsboro St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	993 (-12%)	14mo	$95,000	$96	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $116,493
• Equity at exit: $153,104

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.81×
• Total profit: $324,016
• Equity at exit: $330,175

Cash invested: $47,586 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32025

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $523/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $377

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,273

Max offer price $169,950

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $473	-5% $425	+0% $377	+5% $329	+10% $281
Rent	-10% $239	-5% $308	+0% $377	+5% $446	+10% $515
Rate	-1.0pp $463	-0.5pp $420	base $377	+0.5pp $333	+1.0pp $288

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,488
• Closing costs: $5,098
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,950 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,950 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,950 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,950 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,950 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,950 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,950 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,950 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,950 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,950 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,950 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,950 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,950 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,950 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,950 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,950 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-04-01
    price $175,000
18. 2026-03-05
    listed $185,000 Active
19. 2018-10-23
    soldstatus $100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $523 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,411 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$888/yr (+$74/mo · 169.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,520
• − Property taxes: −$523
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$4,944
• Taxable income: $1,805
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$433
• After-tax cash flow: $4,091/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #5154

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake City, FL
• County: Columbia County · 40,507 people
• City population: 40,507
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,948
• Household income: $55,004
• Rent vs Own: 40.1% rent · 59.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 754.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.57%
• Current HPI: 276.7253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-5.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $175,000 NFMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $185,000 NFMLS
• 2018-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $100 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $523 · +29.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.