166 Barnard St · Buffalo, NY 14206

$100,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,321 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1925 3,000 sqft lot $76/sqft · 48% below area Est $194k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into this updated classic in the heart of Kaisertown, where traditional charm meets modern convenience. This 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home features a newly renovated kitchen and bathroom, ensuring a fresh and stylish start for its next owner. The heart of the home is a massive 12' x 30' combined living and dining area, providing an expansive layout perfect for hosting dinner parties or holiday gatherings. Retreat to the extra-large upstairs master bedroom, or look upward to discover the home’s hidden gem: a 19' x 27' unfinished attic. This vast space is a blank canvas, offering the ideal opportunity to build your dream master suite complete with a luxury bath, private sitting area, or an enviable walk-in closet. Located with quick access to public transportation and all amenities, your commute will be a breeze.

Key facts

• 3,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1925
• Listed 80 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $553 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (8.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 5456% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $100k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.68%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $193,784
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -48.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
287 Willett St	0.17mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,342 (+2%)	3mo	$192,000	$143	82
143 Weiss St	0.15mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,410 (+7%)	3mo	$106,000	$75	75
89 Roberts Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,338 (+1%)	4mo	$106,500	$80	67
580 S Ogden St Unit W	0.55mi	4/1.0	1,362 (+3%)	3mo	$145,800	$107	67
295 Weimar St	0.23mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,194 (-10%)	0mo	$209,000	$175	66
91 Armin Pl	0.65mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,330 (+1%)	0mo	$175,000	$132	63
9 Marann Ter	0.55mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,280 (-3%)	2mo	$265,000	$207	60
72 Weaver St	0.31mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (-11%)	4mo	$91,000	$77	59
102 Pomona Pl	0.62mi	4/1.0	1,232 (-7%)	2mo	$81,000	$66	58
405 Weimar St	0.40mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,188 (-10%)	4mo	$197,500	$166	56
105 Armin Pl	0.63mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,352 (+2%)	6mo	$170,000	$126	55
21 Glenn St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,153 (-13%)	3mo	$15,000	$13	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $76,721
• Equity at exit: $76,370

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.01×
• Total profit: $196,391
• Equity at exit: $151,975

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14206

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,453 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $347/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $553

Break-even live

Break-even rent $753

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34 Hayden St Unit Back Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	43d	1	0.86mi
1899 Seneca St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,075	$0.95	14d	1	0.88mi
1927 Seneca St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1196	$1,250	$1.05	23d	1	0.89mi
76 Hammerschmidt Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,275	$1.06	2d	1	0.94mi
23 Indian Orchard Pl Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	43d	1	1.10mi
47 Lester St Unit Main Floor Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	43d	1	1.13mi
1150 Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1100	$1,200	$1.09	23d	1	1.16mi
298 Cumberland Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1208	$2,200	$1.82	1d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $100,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $106,900 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $106,900 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $107,900 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $107,900 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    historical $1,800
16. 2026-05-05
    listed $1,800
17. 2026-03-30
    listed $107,900 Active 830-char remark

    Show marketing remark (830 chars)

    Step into this updated classic in the heart of Kaisertown, where traditional charm meets modern convenience. This 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home features a newly renovated kitchen and bathroom, ensuring a fresh and stylish start for its next owner. The heart of the home is a massive 12' x 30' combined living and dining area, providing an expansive layout perfect for hosting dinner parties or holiday gatherings. Retreat to the extra-large upstairs master bedroom, or look upward to discover the home’s hidden gem: a 19' x 27' unfinished attic. This vast space is a blank canvas, offering the ideal opportunity to build your dream master suite complete with a luxury bath, private sitting area, or an enviable walk-in closet. Located with quick access to public transportation and all amenities, your commute will be a breeze.

18. 2026-03-30
    historical

    Show marketing remark (830 chars)

    Step into this updated classic in the heart of Kaisertown, where traditional charm meets modern convenience. This 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home features a newly renovated kitchen and bathroom, ensuring a fresh and stylish start for its next owner. The heart of the home is a massive 12' x 30' combined living and dining area, providing an expansive layout perfect for hosting dinner parties or holiday gatherings. Retreat to the extra-large upstairs master bedroom, or look upward to discover the home’s hidden gem: a 19' x 27' unfinished attic. This vast space is a blank canvas, offering the ideal opportunity to build your dream master suite complete with a luxury bath, private sitting area, or an enviable walk-in closet. Located with quick access to public transportation and all amenities, your commute will be a breeze.

19. 2026-03-24
    price $113,900
20. 2026-03-07
    price $117,900
21. 2026-02-27
    price $124,900
22. 2026-02-23
    price $134,900
23. 2026-02-18
    listed $142,900 Active
24. 1997-07-14
    soldstatus $52,900
25. 1997-07-09
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $347 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,019 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$671/yr (+$56/mo · 193.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,431
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$347
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,394
• − Management: −$1,394
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $5,284
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,268
• After-tax cash flow: $5,362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,631
• Household income: $50,450
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 841.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 25% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.06%
• Current HPI: 457.3935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-92.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Rental Removed $1,800 TURBOTENANT
• 2026-05-05 Listed for Rent $1,800 TURBOTENANT
• 2026-03-30 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $107,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $113,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $117,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $124,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $134,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $142,900 WNYREIS
• 1997-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $52,900 Public Records
• 1997-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $347 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.