4814 Pecan Arbor Ln · Houston, TX 77069

$379,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,083 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 2018 5,993 sqft lot $123/sqft · 11% above area Est $343k · 11% over $96/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Cash flow +3.9/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• ARV discount +2.6/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home! This astonishing 2 story, 4 bedroom, 4 bath home is located in a gated community and has it all. It has a spacious living room with high ceilings and a open concept to the kitchen. Granite counter tops in the kitchen and stainless appliances. Covered patio and a spacious back yard. It has a 2 door garage and automatic garage door opener. The stairs have a beautiful iron spindle hand rail. Large master bedroom and closet. The master bathroom has a garden tub and shower. The utility room is grand. The game room is large and perfect for entertainment. NEVER FLOODED and is not in flood zone. This property will not last long. Call me for a personal tour.

Key facts

• 5,993 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2018

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mittlesteadt Estates HOA with gated/controlled access; HOA fee $1,150 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway
• Security: Security gate; Owned security system; Controlled access; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 2018
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Fenced backyard; Pond on lot; Cul-de-sac lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first level); Bedroom (second level); Bedroom (first level); Bedroom (second level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; High ceilings; Jetted tub; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Walk-in pantry; Self-closing cabinet doors and drawers; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (50.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (36.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (50.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Greenwood Forest El (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 672 students, 75% FRL); Wunderlich Int (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 1,316 students, 77% FRL); Klein H S (math 58% / reading 67%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,352 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 37% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,940 (50.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.26%
• DSCR: 0.45
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $342,556
• List price: $379,999
• Delta: 10.93%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14538 Bending Maple Dr	0.10mi	4/2.5	3,020 (-2%)	1mo	$375,000	$124	91
186 Old Bridge Lk	0.29mi	4/3.0	3,108 (+1%)	2mo	$399,000	$128	82
13607 Wendelyn Ln	0.41mi	4/3.5	2,885 (-6%)	2mo	$385,000	$133	64
4418 Windmill Run Dr	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,760 (-10%)	0mo	$332,000	$120	62
5623 Bermuda Dunes Dr	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,828 (-8%)	0mo	$420,000	$149	57
5111 Olympia Fields Ln	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,801 (-9%)	2mo	$373,500	$133	56
13623 Charwell Crossing Ln	0.64mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,210 (+4%)	0mo	$455,000	$142	54
5323 Olympia Fields Ln	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,806 (-9%)	0mo	$399,999	$143	53
13603 Foxmoor Ln	0.48mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,350 (+9%)	2mo	$420,000	$125	53
5403 Coral Ridge Rd	0.68mi	4/3.5	3,362 (+9%)	1mo	$470,000	$140	49
14031 Court Of Regents	0.62mi	4/3.5	3,416 (+11%)	2mo	$445,000	$130	48
105 Old Bridge Lk	0.50mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,622 (-15%)	1mo	$269,900	$103	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.09% appreciation · 3.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-97,870
• Equity at exit: $90,011

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-138,477
• Equity at exit: $93,064

Cash invested: $106,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77069

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,408 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax from tax record: −$742 /mo · $8,907/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$96
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-1,087

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,784

Max offer price $187,940

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,000
• Closing costs: $11,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4622 Falling Sun Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2485	$2,500	$1.01	43d	1	0.27mi
4807 Wellington Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2876	$2,500	$0.87	43d	1	0.28mi
5135 Westerham Pl Unit 1262307P Houston, TX	5.0	3.5	3358	$17,582	$5.24	22d	1	0.34mi
5415 Olympia Fields Ln Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	4163	$3,500	$0.84	3d	1	0.65mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $96 · $1,152/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $379,999 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $379,999 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $379,999 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,999 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,999 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $379,999 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $379,999 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $379,999 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $379,999 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $379,999 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $379,999 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $379,999 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $379,999 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-04-30
    listed $379,999 Active 974-char remark
15. 2026-04-28
    historical $379,999 974-char remark
16. 2024-03-08
    soldstatus
17. 2024-03-07
    soldstatus Sold 671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    Welcome Home! This astonishing 2 story, 4 bedroom, 4 bath home is located in a gated community and has it all. It has a spacious living room with high ceilings and a open concept to the kitchen. Granite counter tops in the kitchen and stainless appliances. Covered patio and a spacious back yard. It has a 2 door garage and automatic garage door opener. The stairs have a beautiful iron spindle hand rail. Large master bedroom and closet. The master bathroom has a garden tub and shower. The utility room is grand. The game room is large and perfect for entertainment. NEVER FLOODED and is not in flood zone. This property will not last long. Call me for a personal tour.

18. 2024-02-13
    status Pending 671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    Welcome Home! This astonishing 2 story, 4 bedroom, 4 bath home is located in a gated community and has it all. It has a spacious living room with high ceilings and a open concept to the kitchen. Granite counter tops in the kitchen and stainless appliances. Covered patio and a spacious back yard. It has a 2 door garage and automatic garage door opener. The stairs have a beautiful iron spindle hand rail. Large master bedroom and closet. The master bathroom has a garden tub and shower. The utility room is grand. The game room is large and perfect for entertainment. NEVER FLOODED and is not in flood zone. This property will not last long. Call me for a personal tour.

19. 2024-02-06
    status Option Pending 671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    Welcome Home! This astonishing 2 story, 4 bedroom, 4 bath home is located in a gated community and has it all. It has a spacious living room with high ceilings and a open concept to the kitchen. Granite counter tops in the kitchen and stainless appliances. Covered patio and a spacious back yard. It has a 2 door garage and automatic garage door opener. The stairs have a beautiful iron spindle hand rail. Large master bedroom and closet. The master bathroom has a garden tub and shower. The utility room is grand. The game room is large and perfect for entertainment. NEVER FLOODED and is not in flood zone. This property will not last long. Call me for a personal tour.

20. 2024-02-02
    price $379,000 671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    Welcome Home! This astonishing 2 story, 4 bedroom, 4 bath home is located in a gated community and has it all. It has a spacious living room with high ceilings and a open concept to the kitchen. Granite counter tops in the kitchen and stainless appliances. Covered patio and a spacious back yard. It has a 2 door garage and automatic garage door opener. The stairs have a beautiful iron spindle hand rail. Large master bedroom and closet. The master bathroom has a garden tub and shower. The utility room is grand. The game room is large and perfect for entertainment. NEVER FLOODED and is not in flood zone. This property will not last long. Call me for a personal tour.

21. 2024-01-26
    listed $390,000 Active 671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    Welcome Home! This astonishing 2 story, 4 bedroom, 4 bath home is located in a gated community and has it all. It has a spacious living room with high ceilings and a open concept to the kitchen. Granite counter tops in the kitchen and stainless appliances. Covered patio and a spacious back yard. It has a 2 door garage and automatic garage door opener. The stairs have a beautiful iron spindle hand rail. Large master bedroom and closet. The master bathroom has a garden tub and shower. The utility room is grand. The game room is large and perfect for entertainment. NEVER FLOODED and is not in flood zone. This property will not last long. Call me for a personal tour.

22. 2024-01-26
    historical $390,000 671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    Welcome Home! This astonishing 2 story, 4 bedroom, 4 bath home is located in a gated community and has it all. It has a spacious living room with high ceilings and a open concept to the kitchen. Granite counter tops in the kitchen and stainless appliances. Covered patio and a spacious back yard. It has a 2 door garage and automatic garage door opener. The stairs have a beautiful iron spindle hand rail. Large master bedroom and closet. The master bathroom has a garden tub and shower. The utility room is grand. The game room is large and perfect for entertainment. NEVER FLOODED and is not in flood zone. This property will not last long. Call me for a personal tour.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,907 · $742/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,907 · $742/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,893
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,286
• − Property taxes: −$8,907
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,311
• − Management: −$2,311
• − HOA: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$11,055
• Taxable loss: −$20,029
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,807
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,239/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,608
• Household income: $80,257
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1259.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.09%
• Current HPI: 201.0894
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.55%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $379,999 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Coming Soon $379,999 HARMLS
• 2024-03-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-03-07 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-02-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-02-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-02-02 Price Changed $379,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-26 Listed $390,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-26 Coming Soon $390,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+29.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,907 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.