13190 Trail Hollow Dr #3190 · Houston, TX 77079

$175,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,056 sqft · Condo public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1968 $800/mo HOA · 29% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity in the desirable Memorial area, situated in Georgetown community. This two-story townhome offers a functional floor plan with multiple living spaces and great potential. The property provides assigned covered parking and access to community amenities such as pools, walking paths, and green spaces. Conveniently located near I-10 and Beltway 8 with close proximity to shopping, dining, and entertainment in the Town & Country area. Zoned to excellent schools in Spring Branch ISD. This property is being sold as-is. Ideal for buyers looking to customize a home to their own vision. This property offers a wonderful opportunity to update and make it your own. Some repairs and improvements are needed, providing great potential for customization and added value. This is a chance to transform a property in a highly sought-after area!

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Green spaces
• Walking paths

Tags

• ASSIGNED COVERED PARKING
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOLS
• WALKING PATHS
• GREEN SPACES
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (8.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Spring Branch ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #215 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 235 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; HOA is 29% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,402 (8.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.16%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-41,317
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -64.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-71,434
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77079

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,735 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$459 /mo · $5,502/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$800
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
• Net cashflow: $-88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,847

Max offer price $159,402

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12925 Trail Hollow Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2014	$2,400	$1.19	44d	1	0.09mi
800 Town and Country Blvd Unit 833 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1507	$3,353	$2.22	10d	1	0.24mi
800 Town and Country Blvd Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1511	$2,392	$1.58	5d	1	0.24mi
800 Town and Country Blvd Unit 837 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1511	$2,416	$1.60	10d	1	0.24mi
800 Town and Country Blvd Unit 23028 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1412	$1,721	$1.22	44d	1	0.24mi
800 Town and Country Blvd Unit 3148 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1507	$3,321	$2.20	3d	1	0.29mi
800 Town and Country Blvd Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1511	$2,384	$1.58	3d	1	0.29mi
801 Town & Country Ln Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1123	$3,420	$3.05	2d	15	0.40mi
10902 Katy Fwy Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.5–3.0	1421	$2,770	$1.95	2d	20	0.49mi
614 Bendwood Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2179	$5,750	$2.64	44d	1	0.60mi
10411 Town & Country Way Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1866	$3,512	$1.88	44d	1	0.62mi
10411 Town & Country Way Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1659	$3,591	$2.16	24d	1	0.62mi
10411 Town & Country Way Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1866	$3,512	$1.88	20d	1	0.62mi
10401 Town & Country Way Unit 10434 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1995	$4,961	$2.49	10d	1	0.64mi
10401 Town & Country Way Apt 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1511	$3,384	$2.24	5d	1	0.64mi
10401 Town & Country Way Unit 10424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1511	$3,408	$2.26	10d	1	0.64mi
10401 Town and Country Way Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1511	$3,248	$2.15	44d	1	0.64mi
10401 Town and Country Way Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1511	$3,248	$2.15	24d	1	0.64mi
10401 Town & Country Way Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1511	$3,376	$2.23	3d	1	0.65mi
10401 Town & Country Way Unit 3187 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1995	$4,929	$2.47	3d	1	0.65mi
10402 Town & Country Way Unit 10425 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1486	$2,965	$2.00	44d	1	0.65mi
1095 Brittmoore Rd Unit 1128 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1475	$2,284	$1.55	44d	1	0.72mi
1095 Brittmoore Rd Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1475	$2,376	$1.61	10d	1	0.72mi
1095 Brittmoore Rd Unit 525 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1475	$2,344	$1.59	3d	1	0.72mi
11070 Old Katy Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1060	$2,032	$1.92	1d	21	0.75mi
935 N Wilcrest Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1260	$2,600	$2.06	1d	24	0.75mi
727 Bunker Hill Rd Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	2552	$3,600	$1.41	44d	1	0.95mi
11019 Cane Oak Way Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	1980	$2,650	$1.34	44d	1	1.12mi
150 W Sam Houston Pkwy N Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1064	$3,375	$3.17	2d	29	1.23mi
1701 Upland Dr Houston, TX	2.0–4.0	1.5–3.0	1340	$1,850	$1.38	44d	8	1.26mi
201 Wilcrest Dr Unit 234 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$1,878	$1.05	11d	1	1.35mi
201 Wilcrest Dr Unit 3112 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$1,846	$1.03	3d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $800 · $9,600/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 865-char remark

   Show marketing remark (865 chars)

   Great opportunity in the desirable Memorial area, situated in Georgetown community. This two-story townhome offers a functional floor plan with multiple living spaces and great potential. The property provides assigned covered parking and access to community amenities such as pools, walking paths, and green spaces. Conveniently located near I-10 and Beltway 8 with close proximity to shopping, dining, and entertainment in the Town & Country area. Zoned to excellent schools in Spring Branch ISD. This property is being sold as-is. Ideal for buyers looking to customize a home to their own vision. This property offers a wonderful opportunity to update and make it your own. Some repairs and improvements are needed, providing great potential for customization and added value. This is a chance to transform a property in a highly sought-after area!

2. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 865-char remark

   Show marketing remark (865 chars)

   Great opportunity in the desirable Memorial area, situated in Georgetown community. This two-story townhome offers a functional floor plan with multiple living spaces and great potential. The property provides assigned covered parking and access to community amenities such as pools, walking paths, and green spaces. Conveniently located near I-10 and Beltway 8 with close proximity to shopping, dining, and entertainment in the Town & Country area. Zoned to excellent schools in Spring Branch ISD. This property is being sold as-is. Ideal for buyers looking to customize a home to their own vision. This property offers a wonderful opportunity to update and make it your own. Some repairs and improvements are needed, providing great potential for customization and added value. This is a chance to transform a property in a highly sought-after area!

3. 2026-04-27
   price $175,000 865-char remark

   Show marketing remark (865 chars)

   Great opportunity in the desirable Memorial area, situated in Georgetown community. This two-story townhome offers a functional floor plan with multiple living spaces and great potential. The property provides assigned covered parking and access to community amenities such as pools, walking paths, and green spaces. Conveniently located near I-10 and Beltway 8 with close proximity to shopping, dining, and entertainment in the Town & Country area. Zoned to excellent schools in Spring Branch ISD. This property is being sold as-is. Ideal for buyers looking to customize a home to their own vision. This property offers a wonderful opportunity to update and make it your own. Some repairs and improvements are needed, providing great potential for customization and added value. This is a chance to transform a property in a highly sought-after area!

4. 2026-04-04
   listed $190,000 Active 865-char remark

   Show marketing remark (865 chars)

   Great opportunity in the desirable Memorial area, situated in Georgetown community. This two-story townhome offers a functional floor plan with multiple living spaces and great potential. The property provides assigned covered parking and access to community amenities such as pools, walking paths, and green spaces. Conveniently located near I-10 and Beltway 8 with close proximity to shopping, dining, and entertainment in the Town & Country area. Zoned to excellent schools in Spring Branch ISD. This property is being sold as-is. Ideal for buyers looking to customize a home to their own vision. This property offers a wonderful opportunity to update and make it your own. Some repairs and improvements are needed, providing great potential for customization and added value. This is a chance to transform a property in a highly sought-after area!

5. 2006-09-20
   soldstatus
6. 2000-02-29
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,502 · $459/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,502 · $459/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,823
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$5,502
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,626
• − Management: −$2,626
• − HOA: −$9,600
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$3,299
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$792
• After-tax cash flow: $-268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring Branch ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841100
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,311
• Composite: 40.88/100
• National rank: #3624
• State rank: #215 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,276
• Household income: $101,995
• Rent vs Own: 51.7% rent · 48.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1811.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Black 13% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 5% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -316.55%
• Current HPI: 286.7958
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2006-09-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-02-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,502 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.