8249 Witkop Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14304

$119,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,472 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1942 7,415 sqft lot Est $190k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious open layout provides for allot of room to grow. Huge living room, formal dining room, quaint family room with sliding doors leading out the back yard and deck area. First floor full bath and bedroom and 2 bedrooms on the second floor. Some hardwoods. Nice backyard complete with a 2 car detached garage.

Key facts

• Back yard
• Formal dining room
• Living room

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• FAMILY ROOM
• SLIDING DOORS
• BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $416 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $120k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $119,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.89%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $189,888
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
221 81st St	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,494 (+2%)	2mo	$120,000	$80	76
1226 87th St	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,480 (+0%)	5mo	$197,000	$133	73
411 81st St	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,344 (-9%)	1mo	$170,000	$126	71
817 87th St	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (+3%)	8mo	$220,000	$145	67
8113 Stephenson Ave	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,365 (-7%)	7mo	$140,000	$103	63
555 77th St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,312 (-11%)	4mo	$49,000	$37	61
503 77th St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-12%)	0mo	$230,000	$177	59
216 74th St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-4%)	0mo	$205,000	$146	54
647 74th St	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+6%)	6mo	$204,500	$131	49
125 80th St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-11%)	6mo	$160,000	$122	46
147 76th St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,284 (-13%)	6mo	$164,000	$128	41
314 76th St	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,313 (-11%)	6mo	$170,000	$129	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $7,267
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $41,174
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14304

• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,867 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$380 /mo · $4,557/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $416

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,340

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8520 Munson Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1216	$2,200	$1.81	17d	1	0.22mi
8833 Pear Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1096	$1,700	$1.55	2d	1	0.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   listed $119,900 Active
3. 2020-09-25
   soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,557 · $380/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,557 · $380/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,405
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$4,557
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,792
• − Management: −$1,792
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $3,459
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$830
• After-tax cash flow: $4,168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 29,208
• Household income: $66,660
• Rent vs Own: 24.9% rent · 75.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 698.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.77%
• Current HPI: 280.3295
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+139.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $119,900 WNYREIS
• 2020-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+21.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,557 · +18.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.