1321 SW Hillcrest Rd · Pauls Valley, OK 73075

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 140 Days on market

Built 1951 10,454 sqft lot Est $89k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled at 1321 Hillcrest RD, Pauls Valley, OK 73075, this single-family residence in Pauls Valley presents an exciting opportunity to own or invest. Built in 1951, this charming fixer-upper with tremendous potential awaits your personal touch and vision. The residence includes a one-car garage, offering shelter for your vehicle. This property features two bedrooms, offering comfortable spaces for rest and relaxation. This single-family residence is ready to become your personal haven or investment opportunity.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1951

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Denson Heights addition; No storm shelter; Homestead not indicated; Rural lot of approximately 0.24 acres
• Financial info: Loan qualification available; Not assumable
• HOA & community: No mandatory association dues

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One story; Fronts Hillcrest Rd
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Existing property
• Exterior features: Rural lot setting

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: One-level living; Porch

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (0.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.1% in Pauls Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#604 in OK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pauls Valley (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #117 of 270 in OK (top 43%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Pauls Valley Hs (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #222 of 447 statewide, top 52%, 312 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 56% district-wide (56 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Garvin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garvin County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $85k implies a 183% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.00%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $89,040
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1325 Hillcrest Rd	0.01mi	2/1.0	796 (-5%)	20mo	$83,999	$106	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-4,953
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $6,986
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73075

• Home prices YoY: -14.1%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $849 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $607/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $673

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $85,000 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $85,000 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $85,000 Active 132 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $85,000 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-04-15
   status Active
10. 2026-04-12
    status Pending
11. 2026-02-18
    price $85,000
12. 2026-01-18
    listed $89,000 Active
13. 2011-11-28
    soldstatus $30,000
14. 2007-07-05
    soldstatus $25,000
15. 1997-12-11
    soldstatus $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $607 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $765 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: +$158/yr (+$13/mo · 26.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$607
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$815
• − Management: −$815
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $290
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$70
• After-tax cash flow: $1,596/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pauls Valley
• NCES district ID: 4023550
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $37,515
• Composite: 20.87/100
• National rank: #8497
• State rank: #117 of 270 in OK

Livability — Pauls Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #604
• US rank: #24233

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pauls Valley, OK
• City population: 9,478
• Population (ZIP): 9,478

Population outlook (Garvin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,277 people
• By 2030: 28,619 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 29,478 · +4.2%
• By 2050: 30,384 · +7.5%
• By 2075: 34,074 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 36,099 · +27.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 12% Native American 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Garvin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.1) · D 16.4% · R 82.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.5pp toward R · 2008: -43.6pp · 2024: -66.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.1 2020: R+64.2 2016: R+60.7 2012: R+46.1 2008: R+43.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.52%
• Current HPI: 235.1168
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+203.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Relisted — MLSOK
• 2026-04-12 Pending — MLSOK
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $85,000 MLSOK
• 2026-01-18 Listed $89,000 MLSOK
• 2011-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2007-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1997-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $607 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.