1150 W Winton Ave #207 · Hayward, CA 94545

$197,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 92 Days on market

Built 1972 $205/sqft · at area comps Est $200k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEAUTIFULLY UPDATED 55+ MOBILE HOME — NO PROPERTY TAXES! Welcome home to this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offering 960 sq. ft. of comfortable living space in a desirable 55+ community. Enjoy a stunning remodeled kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances—refrigerator included—and dual-pane windows throughout for energy efficiency. The interior boasts brightly painted walls and two updated bathrooms, creating a cherry, move-in-ready feel. The home includes a dedicated laundry area with washer and dryer included, plus an enclosed catio—perfect for your feline friends or as a relaxing space to enjoy your day. Additional highlights include a storage shed and long covered parking. Buyer must be 55+ (all other occupants 18+) Low space rent: $839.48/month No property taxes! This beautifully maintained home is a must-see!

Key facts

• Dual-pane windows
• Storage shed
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY AREA
• ENCLOSED CATIO
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $197k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $771 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $197k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 2.1% in Hayward — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#124 in CA, #4,294 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Hayward Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #935 of 1,400 in CA (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Eden Gardens Elementary (481 students, 59% FRL); Anthony W. Ochoa Middle (407 students, 77% FRL); Mt. Eden High (1,947 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 72 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $197k implies a 393% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $179,270 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.77%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,000
• List price: $197,000
• Delta: -1.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1150 W Winton Ave #123	0.00mi	2/2.0	880 (-8%)	0mo	$185,000	$210	86
1150 W Winton Ave #204	0.06mi	2/2.0	880 (-8%)	1mo	$200,000	$227	82
1200 W Winton Ave #224	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,000 (+4%)	6mo	$205,000	$205	82
1200 W Winton Ave #90	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,010 (+5%)	2mo	$265,000	$262	79
1200 W Winton Ave #59	0.09mi	2/1.0	900 (-6%)	11mo	$162,000	$180	72
1200 W Winton Ave #81	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+12%)	0mo	$264,900	$245	71
1200 W Winton Ave #86	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,090 (+14%)	1mo	$280,000	$257	67
1200 W Winton Ave #89	0.13mi	2/1.0	880 (-8%)	11mo	$135,000	$153	67
1200 W Winton Ave #176	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (+8%)	16mo	$165,000	$159	61
1200 W Winton Ave #124	0.12mi	2/1.0	832 (-13%)	15mo	$180,000	$216	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $16,167
• Equity at exit: $29,373

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $73,176
• Equity at exit: $17,033

Cash invested: $55,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94545

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,699 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,033
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$246 /mo · $2,955/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $771

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,723

Max offer price $197,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $907	-5% $839	+0% $771	+5% $703	+10% $635
Rent	-10% $558	-5% $664	+0% $771	+5% $878	+10% $984
Rate	-1.0pp $870	-0.5pp $821	base $771	+0.5pp $720	+1.0pp $668

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,250
• Closing costs: $5,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25000 Copa del Oro Dr #201 Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	855	$3,000	$3.51	45d	1	0.63mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22846 Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1053	$3,795	$3.60	0d	1	0.81mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22854 Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	748	$3,195	$4.27	45d	1	0.81mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22856 Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	744	$3,995	$5.37	0d	1	0.81mi
25800 Industrial Blvd Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$2,893	$3.53	0d	9	0.93mi
21600 Westpark St Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,795	$2.56	45d	1	1.00mi
22211 S Garden Ave Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,145	$2.38	7d	2	1.03mi
1256 Stanhope Ln Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	748	$2,650	$3.54	45d	1	1.03mi
22230 S Garden Ave Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,500	$3.57	7d	1	1.04mi
20913 Royal Ave Hayward Acres, CA	2.0	1.0	675	$2,800	$4.15	45d	1	1.21mi
24650 Amador St Hayward, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	822	$2,788	$3.39	0d	15	1.21mi
22078 Arbor Ave Hayward Acres, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	649	$2,140	$3.29	22d	1	1.23mi
24660 Amador St Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	625	$2,600	$4.16	1d	3	1.23mi
21944 Arbor Ave Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$2,895	$3.62	45d	1	1.27mi
894 Blaine Way Unit ADU Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	850	$2,700	$3.18	45d	1	1.30mi
25021 Cypress Ave Apt 6 Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$2,050	$3.42	45d	1	1.33mi
280 Flint Ct Hayward Acres, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,250	$3.21	5d	1	1.36mi
25341 Cypress Ave Unit 41 Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	528	$1,825	$3.46	26d	1	1.40mi
25355 Cypress Ave Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	626	$1,995	$3.19	45d	1	1.42mi
25401 Cypress Ave Unit 24 Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	1040	$2,390	$2.30	7d	1	1.46mi
25401 Cypress Ave Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	830	$2,390	$2.88	45d	2	1.46mi
25401 Cypress Ave Unit 2 ground floor Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	620	$1,995	$3.22	22d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $197,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $197,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $197,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $197,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $197,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $197,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $197,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-04-20
    price $199,000 874-char remark

    Show marketing remark (874 chars)

    BEAUTIFULLY UPDATED 55+ MOBILE HOME — NO PROPERTY TAXES! Welcome home to this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offering 960 sq. ft. of comfortable living space in a desirable 55+ community. Enjoy a stunning remodeled kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances—refrigerator included—and dual-pane windows throughout for energy efficiency. The interior boasts brightly painted walls and two updated bathrooms, creating a cherry, move-in-ready feel. The home includes a dedicated laundry area with washer and dryer included, plus an enclosed catio—perfect for your feline friends or as a relaxing space to enjoy your day. Additional highlights include a storage shed and long covered parking. Buyer must be 55+ (all other occupants 18+) Low space rent: $839.48/month No property taxes! This beautifully maintained home is a must-see!

17. 2026-03-31
    status Active 874-char remark

    Show marketing remark (874 chars)

    BEAUTIFULLY UPDATED 55+ MOBILE HOME — NO PROPERTY TAXES! Welcome home to this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offering 960 sq. ft. of comfortable living space in a desirable 55+ community. Enjoy a stunning remodeled kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances—refrigerator included—and dual-pane windows throughout for energy efficiency. The interior boasts brightly painted walls and two updated bathrooms, creating a cherry, move-in-ready feel. The home includes a dedicated laundry area with washer and dryer included, plus an enclosed catio—perfect for your feline friends or as a relaxing space to enjoy your day. Additional highlights include a storage shed and long covered parking. Buyer must be 55+ (all other occupants 18+) Low space rent: $839.48/month No property taxes! This beautifully maintained home is a must-see!

18. 2026-02-14
    status Pending 874-char remark

    Show marketing remark (874 chars)

    BEAUTIFULLY UPDATED 55+ MOBILE HOME — NO PROPERTY TAXES! Welcome home to this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offering 960 sq. ft. of comfortable living space in a desirable 55+ community. Enjoy a stunning remodeled kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances—refrigerator included—and dual-pane windows throughout for energy efficiency. The interior boasts brightly painted walls and two updated bathrooms, creating a cherry, move-in-ready feel. The home includes a dedicated laundry area with washer and dryer included, plus an enclosed catio—perfect for your feline friends or as a relaxing space to enjoy your day. Additional highlights include a storage shed and long covered parking. Buyer must be 55+ (all other occupants 18+) Low space rent: $839.48/month No property taxes! This beautifully maintained home is a must-see!

19. 2026-02-04
    listed $210,000 Active 874-char remark

    Show marketing remark (874 chars)

    BEAUTIFULLY UPDATED 55+ MOBILE HOME — NO PROPERTY TAXES! Welcome home to this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offering 960 sq. ft. of comfortable living space in a desirable 55+ community. Enjoy a stunning remodeled kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances—refrigerator included—and dual-pane windows throughout for energy efficiency. The interior boasts brightly painted walls and two updated bathrooms, creating a cherry, move-in-ready feel. The home includes a dedicated laundry area with washer and dryer included, plus an enclosed catio—perfect for your feline friends or as a relaxing space to enjoy your day. Additional highlights include a storage shed and long covered parking. Buyer must be 55+ (all other occupants 18+) Low space rent: $839.48/month No property taxes! This beautifully maintained home is a must-see!

20. 2014-04-30
    historical 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    Great home located in a desirable park in Hayward. 2 bedroom 2 bath at a great cost. Needs updating, but worth it all. Stop by to see this home.

21. 2014-04-30
    soldstatus $39,950 Sold 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    Great home located in a desirable park in Hayward. 2 bedroom 2 bath at a great cost. Needs updating, but worth it all. Stop by to see this home.

22. 2014-04-08
    status Pending 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    Great home located in a desirable park in Hayward. 2 bedroom 2 bath at a great cost. Needs updating, but worth it all. Stop by to see this home.

23. 2014-04-02
    listed $49,950 New 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    Great home located in a desirable park in Hayward. 2 bedroom 2 bath at a great cost. Needs updating, but worth it all. Stop by to see this home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,391
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,035
• − Property taxes: −$2,955
• − Insurance: −$985
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,591
• − Management: −$2,591
• − Depreciation: −$5,731
• Taxable income: $6,502
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,561
• After-tax cash flow: $7,691/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hayward Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616740
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,326
• Composite: 31.27/100
• National rank: #11241
• State rank: #935 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Hayward

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #124
• US rank: #4294

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hayward, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 191,800
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 32,843
• Household income: $114,356
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 702.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 42% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 12% White 10% Black 8% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 43% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 26% Tagalog/Filipino 14% Chinese 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -974.17%
• Current HPI: 304.698
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+298.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $199,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-31 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-14 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-04 Listed $210,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2014-04-30 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2014-04-30 Sold (MLS) $39,950 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2014-04-08 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2014-04-02 Listed $49,950 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR