127 Main St · Silver Creek, NY 14136

$62,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,398 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1910 8,064 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ARE YOU IN THE MARKET FOR A FIXER UPPER / AN INVESTMENT OPPURTUNITY /RENTAL / STARTER / ETC. HITTING THE MARKET LOCATED JUST OUTSIDE OF SILVER CREEK CENTRALLY LOCATED BETWEEN FREDONIA AND BUFFALO IS THIS 3 BEDROOM 1 BATHROOM HOME READY FOR SOME TLC AND TO BE BROUGHT BACK TO LIFE. THE OPPORTUNITTIES ARE ENDLESS WHETHER IT BE A FIRST HOME / INVESTMENT RENTAL /ETC. THIS HOME HAS SOME HISTORY AND SHOWS WITH THE HARD WOOD FLOORS AND SOME OF THE GLASS KNOB HARDWARE AND WITH A LITTLE POLISH THIS HOME WILL SHINE AGAIN. THE PROPERTY IS BEING SOLD AS IS WHERE IS AND IF YOUD LIKE TO SCHEDULE A SHOWING REACH OUT TO AN AGENT

Key facts

• 8,064 sq ft lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 23 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No driveway
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing (resale) property
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Block and stone foundation
• Exterior features: Rectangular residential lot; City-street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 63 x 128

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (includes living areas and laundry)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Separate formal dining room; Separate formal living room; Combined living/dining area; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $62k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $361 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $62k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#698 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Silver Creek Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #435 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $432 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.8% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $61,562 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.73%
• DSCR: 2.10
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $191,526
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
320 Central Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+1%)	2mo	$165,000	$116	59
31 Forestville St	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,550 (+11%)	12mo	$165,825	$107	59
12194 Old Main Rd	0.38mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,285 (-8%)	19mo	$190,000	$148	48
17 Newton St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,604 (+15%)	15mo	$220,000	$137	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $12,966
• Equity at exit: $9,319

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $41,371
• Equity at exit: $5,404

Cash invested: $17,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14136

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,221 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$328
• Tax from tax record: −$250 /mo · $3,005/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $361

Break-even live

Break-even rent $765

Max offer price $62,500

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $576	-5% $555	+0% $361	+5% $343	+10% $325
Rent	-10% $264	-5% $312	+0% $361	+5% $409	+10% $457
Rate	-1.0pp $392	-0.5pp $377	base $361	+0.5pp $344	+1.0pp $328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,625
• Closing costs: $1,875
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $62,500 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $62,500 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $62,500 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $62,500 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $62,500 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $62,500 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $62,500 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $62,500 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $62,500 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $62,500 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $62,500 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $62,500 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $62,500 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $62,500 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $62,500 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-28
    listed $62,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,005 · $250/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,005 · $250/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,656
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,501
• − Property taxes: −$3,005
• − Insurance: −$312
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,172
• − Management: −$1,172
• − Depreciation: −$1,818
• Taxable income: $3,674
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$882
• After-tax cash flow: $3,446/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Silver Creek Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3626880
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $48,212
• Composite: 40.1/100
• National rank: #3804
• State rank: #435 of 590 in NY

Livability — Silver Creek

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #698
• US rank: #13141

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silver Creek, NY
• Population (ZIP): 5,274

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 9% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.33%
• Current HPI: 291.4708
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $62,500 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,005 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.