3606 Duplet Ave · Deerwood, TX 77306

$161,440

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,535 sqft · SingleFamily · 24 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $61/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Cibola Floor Plan - The first floor of this two-story home is host to an open floorplan that combines a fully-equipped kitchen with the living and dining areas to maximize the footprint of the home. There are four bedrooms located upstairs, including the luxe owner’s suite, which is positioned at the back of the home for enhanced privacy and comfort. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Enhanced privacy
• Luxe owner suite

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• FULLY-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• LUXE OWNER SUITE
• ENHANCED PRIVACY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Villages of Greystone homeowners association; Community amenities: park, pool, trails; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Community association pool; Subdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven and range; Gas oven and range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (approx. 14 x 10); Three additional bedrooms on second level (each approx. 10 x 9); Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with private bath; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $161,440 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $184,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $161k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $161k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.4% in Deerwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Creighton El (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 940 students, 92% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 34% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,018 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.75%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,490
• List price: $161,440
• Delta: -12.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17127 Saxophone Ln	0.29mi	4/2.5	1,535 (0%)	0mo	$195,990	$128	86
17119 Saxophone Ln	0.35mi	4/2.5	1,535 (0%)	1mo	$194,990	$127	83
17135 Saxophone Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (-11%)	1mo	$188,990	$139	70
3862 Highline Oaks W	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,370 (-11%)	0mo	$319,990	$234	60
3602 Duplet Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (-11%)	1mo	$188,990	$139	59
17143 Saxophone Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (-11%)	2mo	$189,990	$140	59
16430 Tracy Ct	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,667 (+9%)	1mo	$220,000	$132	58
236 Kellyn Ct	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,592 (+4%)	8mo	$239,000	$150	57
16475 N Emerson	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,456 (-5%)	13mo	$174,900	$120	49
260 Kellyn Ct	0.57mi	4/2.5	1,740 (+13%)	7mo	$209,990	$121	46
16406 Trenda Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-12%)	14mo	$135,000	$100	39
16479 Taurus Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-12%)	15mo	$159,900	$119	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-14,067
• Equity at exit: $27,508

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $8,320
• Equity at exit: $15,951

Cash invested: $51,657 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,004 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$967
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,767/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$61
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,691

Max offer price $184,490

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $375	-5% $311	+0% $247	+5% $184	+10% $120
Rent	-10% $89	-5% $168	+0% $247	+5% $327	+10% $406
Rate	-1.0pp $340	-0.5pp $294	base $247	+0.5pp $200	+1.0pp $151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,122
• Closing costs: $5,535
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2221 Cedar Valley Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1920	$1,695	$0.88	44d	1	0.92mi
2140 Cedar Bend Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1871	$1,995	$1.07	11d	1	0.93mi
15743 Del Norte Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1811	$1,895	$1.05	44d	1	1.40mi
15581 Briar Forest Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,545	$1.10	0d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $61 · $732/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $161,440 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $161,440 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $161,440 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $161,440 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $161,440 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $161,440 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-05-11
   historical
8. 2026-05-11
   listed $169,890 Active 518-char remark
9. 2026-05-08
   price $169,890
10. 2026-05-07
    price $169,890
11. 2026-04-29
    price $161,890
12. 2026-04-29
    price $161,890
13. 2026-04-22
    price $169,990
14. 2026-04-21
    price $169,990
15. 2026-04-17
    price $174,840
16. 2026-04-16
    price $174,840
17. 2026-04-14
    price $182,990
18. 2026-04-14
    price $182,990
19. 2026-04-10
    price $186,890
20. 2026-04-09
    price $186,890
21. 2026-04-08
    price $189,690
22. 2026-04-08
    listed $195,990 Active
23. 2026-04-07
    listed $189,690 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,334
• − Property taxes: −$2,767
• − Insurance: −$922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,924
• − Management: −$1,924
• − HOA: −$732
• − Depreciation: −$5,367
• Taxable income: $81
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$19
• After-tax cash flow: $2,950/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value
• Both Interior cleaning — A clean interior can make the home more appealing to potential buyers or renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Interior cleaning — A clean interior can make the home more appealing to potential buyers or renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $161,440 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $169,890 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $169,890 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $161,890 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $169,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $174,840 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $182,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $186,890 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $189,690 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $195,990 HARMLS