47 15th Ave W · Birmingham, AL 35204

$94,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 141 Days on market

Built 1950 5,662 sqft lot $110/sqft · 121% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PLEASE COME CHECK OUT THIS GREAT HOME WITH PECAN TREE (SOFT SHELL) OUT IN FRONT YARD PLANTED APPROX. 45 YEARS AGO. FRONT PORCH TO ENJOY THE FRONT YARD AND FRIENDS WALKING UP AND DOWN THE SIDEWALK. INSIDE THE LIVING AND DINING ROOM ARE OPEN PLAN. KITCHEN HAS PLUG FOR A GAS STOVE (STOVE NOT INCLUDED) WITH WASHER AND DRYER. TWO BEDROOM AND A FULL BATHROOM. LARGE BACK YARD WITH A CLOTHS LINE (SOLAR CLOTHS DRYER WITH FRESH AIR) AND FENCED IN. A FUR BABY WOULD ENJOY PLAYING IN A LARGE YARD. KITCHEN IS WIRED FOR A GAS STOVE.

Key facts

• Fenced in
• Front porch
• Gas stove

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• OPEN PLAN
• GAS STOVE
• LARGE BACK YARD
• FENCED IN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($656 loan paydown + $608 appreciation (0.6% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.54%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $47,628
• List price: $94,900
• Delta: 99.25%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
117 15th Ave W	0.09mi	2/1.0	875 (+1%)	3mo	$56,000	$64	91
217 N 14th Ct	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+11%)	18mo	$45,000	$47	51
409 N 15th Ter	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	925 (+7%)	19mo	$90,000	$97	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $6,490
• Equity at exit: $30,637

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $29,571
• Equity at exit: $39,385

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35204

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $858 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $483/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $731

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $154	-5% $127	+0% $101	+5% $74	+10% $47
Rent	-10% $33	-5% $67	+0% $101	+5% $134	+10% $168
Rate	-1.0pp $148	-0.5pp $125	base $101	+0.5pp $76	+1.0pp $51

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1153 2nd St N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,150	$1.09	21d	1	0.40mi
517 11th Ct W Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	970	$795	$0.82	45d	1	0.61mi
1500 12th St N Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	750	$800	$1.07	25d	1	0.74mi
1305 16th St N Unit 1305 D Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	825	$595	$0.72	25d	1	0.94mi
1906 18th Pl N Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$799	$0.89	16d	1	0.99mi
905 7th St W Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1029	$1,150	$1.12	45d	1	1.00mi
1802 14th Ct N Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	21d	1	1.00mi
2012 18th Pl N Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$799	$0.89	12d	1	1.02mi
2010 18th Pl N Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$799	$0.89	12d	1	1.02mi
2004 18th Pl N Unit 2004 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$799	$0.89	16d	1	1.02mi
1994 18th Pl N Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$799	$0.89	16d	1	1.02mi
1954 18th Pl N Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$975	$1.08	45d	1	1.02mi
1113 15th St N Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	700	$880	$1.26	45d	2	1.02mi
1940 18th Pl N Unit 1940 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$799	$0.89	16d	1	1.02mi
1938 18th Pl N Unit 1938 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$799	$0.89	16d	1	1.02mi
1917 18th Pl N Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$799	$0.89	16d	1	1.04mi
1909 18th St N Unit 1909 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$799	$0.89	16d	1	1.09mi
1576 20th St N Apt D Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$725	$0.81	45d	1	1.20mi
1174 16th Avenue Thomas Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1000	$750	$0.75	45d	1	1.25mi
1428 F L Shuttlesworth Dr Fl Shuttlesworth Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	803	$825	$1.03	25d	3	1.25mi
617 7th St W Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1120	$1,175	$1.05	45d	1	1.31mi
1400 7th Ave N Birmingham, AL	1.0	1.0	730	$961	$1.32	25d	3	1.34mi
1911 19th Ct N Apt 1 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	750	$845	$1.13	13d	1	1.34mi
2000 Stouts Rd Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	700	$880	$1.26	45d	2	1.37mi
2300 21st Ave N Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	700	$880	$1.26	45d	2	1.41mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $94,900 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,900 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,900 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,900 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,900 Active 135 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,900 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $94,900 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,900 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,900 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,900 Active 127 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,900 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,900 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 120 DOM
15. 2026-01-31
    listed $94,900 Active 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    PLEASE COME CHECK OUT THIS GREAT HOME WITH PECAN TREE (SOFT SHELL) OUT IN FRONT YARD PLANTED APPROX. 45 YEARS AGO. FRONT PORCH TO ENJOY THE FRONT YARD AND FRIENDS WALKING UP AND DOWN THE SIDEWALK. INSIDE THE LIVING AND DINING ROOM ARE OPEN PLAN. KITCHEN HAS PLUG FOR A GAS STOVE (STOVE NOT INCLUDED) WITH WASHER AND DRYER. TWO BEDROOM AND A FULL BATHROOM. LARGE BACK YARD WITH A CLOTHS LINE (SOLAR CLOTHS DRYER WITH FRESH AIR) AND FENCED IN. A FUR BABY WOULD ENJOY PLAYING IN A LARGE YARD. KITCHEN IS WIRED FOR A GAS STOVE.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $483 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $483 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,299
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$483
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$824
• − Management: −$824
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable loss: −$383
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$92
• After-tax cash flow: $1,299/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 8,953
• Household income: $35,420
• Rent vs Own: 53.8% rent · 46.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 422.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.64%
• Current HPI: 201.0777
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-31 Listed $94,900 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $483 · +17.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.