8419 Falmouth Dr · Ferguson, MO 63121

$134,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,238 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1956 9,448 sqft lot $109/sqft · 37% above area Est $98k · 37% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

UPDATED Beautiful brick home on a level lot with some trees for privacy. Step inside to appreciate this remodeled home with all the woodgrain Luxury Vinyl Plank floors, new kitchen, canned lighting, fresh paint, panel door, ceiling fans in the bedroom, updated bathroom & warm carpet in the bedrooms. Kitchen has granite counter, stainless steel smooth top stove with range hood, new sink, arched faucet, garbage disposal and LVP flooring. Bathroom has been updated with new sink, commode and tub/shower combo. 1 car garage with opener to keep you car out of the weather elements. Your homeowner's insurance will appreciate the new roof just a few months old & the new electrical service mast outside & main panel being replace Mar 2026. Nice sized bedrooms with new carpet, lots of windows and lighted ceiling fans. Multiple social areas, not just a living room to spread out in. Seller has the passed Occupancy, quick closing available. Come see 8419 Falmouth today to grab this wonderful home before the sign says SOLD!

Key facts

• New kitchen
• Level lot
• Brick home

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• LEVEL LOT
• REMODELED HOME
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORS
• NEW KITCHEN
• CANNED LIGHTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $134k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#586 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 23 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $930 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $134k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.38%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $97,961
• List price: $134,500
• Delta: 37.30%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8408 Hawkesbury Dr	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,227 (-1%)	2mo	$149,900	$122	93
8307 Edna Ave	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,259 (+2%)	4mo	$59,900	$48	83
8445 Hawkesbury Dr	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,311 (+6%)	5mo	$88,650	$68	78
337 Wiegel Dr	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,220 (-2%)	7mo	$59,900	$49	75
5150 Wallingford Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,118 (-10%)	3mo	$154,900	$139	73
223 Wiegel Dr	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-3%)	3mo	$95,000	$79	71
230 Randolph Ave	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,243 (+0%)	4mo	$85,000	$68	63
1312 Willingham Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+13%)	0mo	$135,000	$96	62
903 Arline Ave	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,136 (-8%)	7mo	$160,000	$141	61
1213 Haley Ave	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,196 (-3%)	5mo	$95,000	$79	60
415 Thomas Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,175 (-5%)	1mo	$149,500	$127	58
317 Mueller Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,113 (-10%)	2mo	$20,000	$18	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-8,075
• Equity at exit: $20,054

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $19,570
• Equity at exit: $11,629

Cash invested: $37,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63121

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,315 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$705
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,303/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,101

Max offer price $134,500

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $245	-5% $207	+0% $169	+5% $131	+10% $93
Rent	-10% $65	-5% $117	+0% $169	+5% $221	+10% $273
Rate	-1.0pp $236	-0.5pp $203	base $169	+0.5pp $134	+1.0pp $98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,625
• Closing costs: $4,035
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5300 Grove Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	840	$1,295	$1.54	24d	1	0.14mi
8408 Hill Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,550	$1.49	24d	1	0.16mi
806 Marvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	726	$1,100	$1.52	44d	1	0.21mi
801 Thomas Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,350	$1.56	44d	1	0.31mi
204 Hawkesbury Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	849	$1,250	$1.47	5d	1	0.32mi
709 Suburban Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	975	$1,400	$1.44	44d	1	0.36mi
450 S Dade Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	24d	1	0.39mi
223 Wiegel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,560	$1.81	13d	1	0.46mi
519 Graf Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	887	$1,297	$1.46	21d	1	0.47mi
5500 Mable Ave Unit 5530 B1 St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	850	$915	$1.08	44d	1	0.48mi
5500 Mable Ave Unit 5518 B4 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$835	$1.11	44d	1	0.48mi
422 Plaza Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	8d	1	0.48mi
360 S Harvey Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	936	$925	$0.99	44d	1	0.49mi
846 Elsworth Pl Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1352	$1,600	$1.18	5d	1	0.51mi
617 Tesmore Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	877	$1,200	$1.37	44d	1	0.60mi
265 S Harvey Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1240	$1,350	$1.09	44d	1	0.61mi
222 Randolph Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	964	$1,400	$1.45	8d	1	0.62mi
246 Louisa Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1036	$1,600	$1.54	44d	1	0.64mi
26 Arbor Village Ct Ferguson, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	714	$950	$1.33	24d	1	0.69mi
5925 Brand Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	951	$1,200	$1.26	44d	1	0.72mi
12 Lee Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	832	$1,080	$1.30	8d	1	0.72mi
419 S Florissant Rd Ferguson, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	44d	1	0.74mi
5900 Sheriton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,050	$1.22	24d	1	0.82mi
110 Paul Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	875	$1,050	$1.20	8d	1	0.83mi
7816 Dartmoor Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	950	$1,195	$1.26	44d	1	0.87mi
7808 Winward Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1434	$1,425	$0.99	22d	1	0.92mi
338 Saint Louis Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	44d	1	0.93mi
601 Carson Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	743	$950	$1.28	24d	1	0.99mi
5830 Bermuda Dr Unit 34C St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	850	$895	$1.05	44d	1	1.00mi
5830 Bermuda Dr Unit 30B St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	24d	1	1.00mi
6170 Emerald Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1286	$1,425	$1.11	2d	1	1.02mi
6170 Emerald Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1286	$1,500	$1.17	15d	1	1.02mi
6180 Emerald Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	729	$1,300	$1.78	44d	1	1.02mi
324 Emmett Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,650	$1.22	24d	1	1.06mi
6188 Dupree Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	972	$1,300	$1.34	44d	1	1.08mi
910 Disco Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	924	$1,260	$1.36	17d	1	1.13mi
60 Mayme Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,285	$1.34	44d	1	1.18mi
249 S Hartnett Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,220	$1.27	24d	1	1.25mi
296 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	15d	1	1.28mi
227 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	44d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,500 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,500 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,500 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,500 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,500 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,500 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,500 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,500 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $134,500 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $134,500 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,500 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,500 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,500 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,500 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $134,500 1036-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1036 chars)

    UPDATED Beautiful brick home on a level lot with some trees for privacy. Step inside to appreciate this remodeled home with all the woodgrain Luxury Vinyl Plank floors, new kitchen, canned lighting, fresh paint, panel door, ceiling fans in the bedroom, updated bathroom & warm carpet in the bedrooms. Kitchen has granite counter, stainless steel smooth top stove with range hood, new sink, arched faucet, garbage disposal and LVP flooring. Bathroom has been updated with new sink, commode and tub/shower combo. 1 car garage with opener to keep you car out of the weather elements. Your homeowner's insurance will appreciate the new roof just a few months old & the new electrical service mast outside & main panel being replace Mar 2026. Nice sized bedrooms with new carpet, lots of windows and lighted ceiling fans. Multiple social areas, not just a living room to spread out in. Seller has the passed Occupancy, quick closing available. Come see 8419 Falmouth today to grab this wonderful home before the sign says SOLD!

16. 2026-03-18
    price $139,900 1036-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1036 chars)

    UPDATED Beautiful brick home on a level lot with some trees for privacy. Step inside to appreciate this remodeled home with all the woodgrain Luxury Vinyl Plank floors, new kitchen, canned lighting, fresh paint, panel door, ceiling fans in the bedroom, updated bathroom & warm carpet in the bedrooms. Kitchen has granite counter, stainless steel smooth top stove with range hood, new sink, arched faucet, garbage disposal and LVP flooring. Bathroom has been updated with new sink, commode and tub/shower combo. 1 car garage with opener to keep you car out of the weather elements. Your homeowner's insurance will appreciate the new roof just a few months old & the new electrical service mast outside & main panel being replace Mar 2026. Nice sized bedrooms with new carpet, lots of windows and lighted ceiling fans. Multiple social areas, not just a living room to spread out in. Seller has the passed Occupancy, quick closing available. Come see 8419 Falmouth today to grab this wonderful home before the sign says SOLD!

17. 2026-02-09
    listed $142,500 Active 1036-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1036 chars)

    UPDATED Beautiful brick home on a level lot with some trees for privacy. Step inside to appreciate this remodeled home with all the woodgrain Luxury Vinyl Plank floors, new kitchen, canned lighting, fresh paint, panel door, ceiling fans in the bedroom, updated bathroom & warm carpet in the bedrooms. Kitchen has granite counter, stainless steel smooth top stove with range hood, new sink, arched faucet, garbage disposal and LVP flooring. Bathroom has been updated with new sink, commode and tub/shower combo. 1 car garage with opener to keep you car out of the weather elements. Your homeowner's insurance will appreciate the new roof just a few months old & the new electrical service mast outside & main panel being replace Mar 2026. Nice sized bedrooms with new carpet, lots of windows and lighted ceiling fans. Multiple social areas, not just a living room to spread out in. Seller has the passed Occupancy, quick closing available. Come see 8419 Falmouth today to grab this wonderful home before the sign says SOLD!

18. 2021-08-17
    soldstatus $68,500
19. 2002-06-06
    soldstatus $66,000
20. 1997-10-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,303 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,305 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$2/yr ($0/mo · 0.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,778
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,534
• − Property taxes: −$1,303
• − Insurance: −$672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,262
• − Management: −$1,262
• − Depreciation: −$3,913
• Taxable loss: −$169
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$41
• After-tax cash flow: $2,066/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferguson-Florissant R-II
• NCES district ID: 2912010
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,610
• Composite: 11.96/100
• National rank: #9666
• State rank: #311 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ferguson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #586
• US rank: #20809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferguson, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,381
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 25,008
• Household income: $42,701
• Rent vs Own: 48.4% rent · 51.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1611.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 80% White 14% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -177.84%
• Current HPI: 100.4494
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.21%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+103.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $134,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $139,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Listed $142,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $68,500 Public Records
• 2002-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records
• 1997-10-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,303 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.