633 33rd St · Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$124,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1929 3,150 sqft lot Est $123k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 633 33rd Street in Niagara Falls!! A well-maintained home offering comfort, character, and pride of ownership throughout. This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath residence features approximately 1,050 square feet of living space and has been lovingly cared for over 62 years. Step inside to find a functional layout with bright living spaces, large living room and kitchen with dining room and an updated bathroom, a full, clean, dry basement for storage/workspace with glass block windows providing added security, efficiency, and natural light. Central air conditioning ensures year-round comfort, and the home’s solid maintenance history offers peace of mind for its next owner. Enjoy re

Key facts

• Off street parking
• 3,150 sq ft lot
• Built 1929

Tags

• LARGE COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FULL CLEAN DRY BASEMENT
• OFF STREET PARKING
• PARTIALLY FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $137 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bloneva Bond Primary School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,075 of 2,108 statewide, top 99%, 403 students, 82% FRL); Gaskill Preparatory School (math 10% / reading 22%, grade F, #702 of 729 statewide, top 96%, 500 students, 78% FRL); Niagara Falls High School (math 75% / reading 92%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,139 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,344/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $124,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.70%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $122,850
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
633 33rd St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,050 (0%)	1mo	$145,000	$138	99
3666 Ely Ave	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,050 (0%)	4mo	$163,000	$155	80
544 30th St	0.20mi	3/1.0	964 (-8%)	3mo	$62,000	$64	74
3621 Ely Ave	0.33mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (+3%)	1mo	$90,000	$83	74
618 38th St	0.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-4%)	4mo	$118,000	$117	74
609 25th St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-1%)	2mo	$158,000	$152	72
2762 Falls St	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (+1%)	3mo	$120,000	$114	65
3631 Sherwood Ave	0.27mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,179 (+12%)	2mo	$120,000	$102	61
302 38th St	0.57mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,030 (-2%)	5mo	$85,000	$83	59
3028 Welch Ave	0.49mi	3/1.5	942 (-10%)	4mo	$99,000	$105	54
2219 Forest Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,116 (+6%)	5mo	$155,000	$139	54
2487 Grand Ave	0.38mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,188 (+13%)	1mo	$169,900	$143	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $83,912
• Equity at exit: $112,520

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.38×
• Total profit: $257,955
• Equity at exit: $242,653

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14301

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,344 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,612/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,171

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $208	-5% $172	+0% $137	+5% $102	+10% $66
Rent	-10% $31	-5% $84	+0% $137	+5% $190	+10% $243
Rate	-1.0pp $200	-0.5pp $169	base $137	+0.5pp $105	+1.0pp $72

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3626 Dudley Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	45d	1	0.38mi
3340 Simmons Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,550	$1.54	16d	1	0.47mi
2727 Monroe Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	12d	1	0.50mi
3036 Welch Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	3d	1	0.51mi
2473 Pierce Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	5d	1	0.59mi
420 25th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	45d	1	0.61mi
434 23rd St Unit Upper Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	816	$1,100	$1.35	16d	1	0.71mi
769 19th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.5	960	$1,400	$1.46	23d	1	0.81mi
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,390	$1.07	3d	1	0.83mi
2463 South Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,100	$1.09	18d	1	0.85mi
1808 Whitney Ave Unit 3 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$900	$0.75	45d	1	0.93mi
1001 17th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	25d	1	0.95mi
420 18th St Unit Upper Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	816	$1,150	$1.41	45d	1	0.96mi
1780 Falls St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	45d	1	0.98mi
754 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	990	$1,100	$1.11	25d	1	1.08mi
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	5d	1	1.09mi
1427 Fort Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1058	$950	$0.90	45d	1	1.10mi
613 13th St Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	18d	1	1.19mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	999	$1,899	$1.90	3d	1	1.22mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	985	$1,899	$1.93	3d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   listed $124,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,612 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,612 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,128
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$2,612
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,290
• − Management: −$1,290
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$319
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$77
• After-tax cash flow: $1,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,923
• Household income: $34,549
• Rent vs Own: 54.1% rent · 45.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 25% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.41%
• Current HPI: 266.1457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.79%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $124,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+29.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,612 · +1460.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.