914-A Liverpool Cir · Leisure Village West, NJ 08759

$204,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,381 sqft · Condo public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1985 $373/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very well-kept Street Front Blair model on a corner lot. No neighbors on 3 sides of this home.

Key facts

• Brick fireplace
• Large living room
• Private patio

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• DINING ROOM ACCESS
• PRIVATE PATIO
• DEN WITH FRENCH DOORS
• BUILT-INS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 5.8% in Leisure Village West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#261 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,826 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.77%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-121
• Equity at exit: $30,551

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $43,277
• Equity at exit: $17,716

Cash invested: $57,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,936 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$272 /mo · $3,261/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$373
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$617
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,284

Max offer price $204,900

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,225
• Closing costs: $6,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
150 Farm Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1280	$3,000	$2.34	22d	1	0.24mi
616 Lawrence Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1508	$3,100	$2.06	2d	1	0.47mi
2035 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,775	$2.02	1d	3	0.55mi
501 Bismarck St Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,775	$2.13	43d	1	0.78mi
1700 New Jersey 37 Unit 112-11 Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1224	$2,299	$1.88	1d	1	0.86mi
2501 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1252	$3,468	$2.77	1d	6	0.86mi
1008 4th Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1656	$3,400	$2.05	1d	1	1.13mi
1425 Amsterdam Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1376	$3,500	$2.54	43d	1	1.33mi
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	43d	1	1.36mi
19 Marlow Ave Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1551	$2,400	$1.55	1d	1	1.41mi
1540 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,900	$2.15	43d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $373 · $4,476/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2025-08-06
   soldstatus $360,000
2. 2025-03-01
   status Pending
3. 2025-02-14
   listed $204,900 Active
4. 2017-06-08
   soldstatus $115,000
5. 2017-06-01
   soldstatus $115,000 Sold 94-char remark

   Show marketing remark (94 chars)

   Very well-kept Street Front Blair model on a corner lot. No neighbors on 3 sides of this home.

6. 2017-04-21
   status Pending 94-char remark

   Show marketing remark (94 chars)

   Very well-kept Street Front Blair model on a corner lot. No neighbors on 3 sides of this home.

7. 2017-04-10
   price $125,000 94-char remark

   Show marketing remark (94 chars)

   Very well-kept Street Front Blair model on a corner lot. No neighbors on 3 sides of this home.

8. 2017-02-15
   listed $135,000 Active 94-char remark

   Show marketing remark (94 chars)

   Very well-kept Street Front Blair model on a corner lot. No neighbors on 3 sides of this home.

9. 1986-02-26
   soldstatus $90,990
10. 1986-02-25
    soldstatus $101,376

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,261 · $272/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,181 · $348/mo
• Expected delta: +$921/yr (+$77/mo · 28.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,234
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,478
• − Property taxes: −$3,261
• − Insurance: −$1,024
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,819
• − Management: −$2,819
• − HOA: −$4,476
• − Depreciation: −$5,961
• Taxable income: $3,397
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$815
• After-tax cash flow: $5,364/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Village West

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #7714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village West, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+255.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $360,000 Public Records
• 2025-03-01 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-14 Listed $204,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-01 Sold (MLS) $115,000 MOMLS
• 2017-04-21 Pending — MOMLS
• 2017-04-10 Price Changed $125,000 MOMLS
• 2017-02-15 Listed $135,000 MOMLS
• 1986-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $90,990 Public Records
• 1986-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $101,376 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,261 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.