5204 7th St · Keyes, CA 95328

$365,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 984 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1982 5,998 sqft lot Est $346k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0

Key facts

• 5,998 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1982

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; 1-car garage
• Utilities: 220 Volt electric service; Public water; Public sewer; No irrigation
• Home design: Detached single-family residence; Single-story; Built in 1982
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Regular-shaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tile and tub/shower combo
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Living room with a view; Main level includes bedrooms, living room, garage and kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-413 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (20.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (39.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (39.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in Keyes — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,280 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $195k; list at $365k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,000 (39.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.85%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $346,368
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4405 Sunset Ter	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,064 (+8%)	9mo	$375,000	$352	71
5320 8th St	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,044 (+6%)	16mo	$343,000	$329	68
4021 Anna Ave	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (+10%)	4mo	$332,500	$308	66
5463 8th St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,021 (+4%)	20mo	$359,000	$352	60
5555 10th St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,040 (+6%)	15mo	$340,000	$327	56
4100 Anna Ave	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+12%)	22mo	$460,000	$418	54
5020 Fonda Way	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,040 (+6%)	11mo	$417,500	$401	52
3917 Hollywood Dr	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (+6%)	14mo	$405,000	$389	48
4504 Stella Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,050 (+7%)	17mo	$363,600	$346	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $172,305
• Equity at exit: $328,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.16×
• Total profit: $527,723
• Equity at exit: $709,115

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95328

• Home prices YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,220 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,206/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,743

Max offer price $292,058

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3824 Hollywood Dr Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,220	$2.02	43d	1	0.50mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-24
   soldstatus $195,000
2. 1982-06-01
   soldstatus $41,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,206 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,774 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,568/yr (+$131/mo · 130.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,640
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$1,206
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,131
• − Management: −$2,131
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$11,718
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,812
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,143/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Keyes

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #1280
• US rank: #26476

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keyes, CA
• City population: 3,939
• Population (ZIP): 3,939

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 71% Two or more races 33% White 16% Asian 13% Native American 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada
• Languages at home: 29% English-only · Spanish 60% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.97%
• Current HPI: 418.8737
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+375.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 1982-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,206 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.