Priscilla Plan · Lubbock, TX 79407

$186,950

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,005 sqft · SingleFamily · 821 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The 1,000 square-foot Victoria floor plan is a smart, comfortable start to homeownership with features that make everyday living easy. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasGranite or quartz countertopsKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 821 days

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $187k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($88/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Willow Bend El (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 730 students, 74% FRL); Terra Vista Middle (math 37% / reading 44%, grade F, #637 of 1,662 statewide, top 39%, 891 students, 66% FRL); Frenship H S (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,247 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 36% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 613 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 821 days — a 12% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $164,471 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 821 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.17%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-34,621
• Equity at exit: $27,875

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-48,071
• Equity at exit: $16,164

Cash invested: $52,346 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79407

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 613
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,645 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$980
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$234 /mo · $2,804/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,635

Max offer price $186,950

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $137	-5% $72	+0% $7	+5% $-57	+10% $-122
Rent	-10% $-123	-5% $-58	+0% $7	+5% $72	+10% $137
Rate	-1.0pp $101	-0.5pp $55	base $7	+0.5pp $-41	+1.0pp $-90

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,738
• Closing costs: $5,608
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2603 Harmony Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,749	$1.21	23d	1	0.18mi
2603 Harmony Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,749	$1.21	15d	1	0.18mi
8607 29th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,749	$1.30	45d	1	0.22mi
2511 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,099	$1.45	23d	1	0.27mi
2509 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	23d	1	0.27mi
2055 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,649	$1.14	15d	1	0.29mi
2154 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	23d	1	0.32mi
2168 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	45d	1	0.34mi
2162 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	45d	1	0.37mi
2125 Kirksey Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	15d	1	0.38mi
2028 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	15d	1	0.38mi
2147 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	23d	1	0.39mi
2131 Kokomo Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,500	$1.10	23d	1	0.40mi
2143 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	45d	1	0.41mi
2152 Langford Ave Unit Labs Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,660	$1.14	23d	1	0.42mi
2139 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,899	$1.31	23d	1	0.43mi
2137 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,700	$1.17	23d	1	0.43mi
2148 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	45d	1	0.44mi
2123 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	23d	1	0.46mi
2138 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	45d	1	0.47mi
2132 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	15d	1	0.48mi
2128 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	15d	1	0.49mi
2122 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	15d	1	0.50mi
2101 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,400	$0.93	45d	1	0.52mi
1919 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,350	$0.90	45d	1	0.55mi
1919 Langford Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,399	$0.93	45d	1	0.55mi
1918 Langford Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,399	$0.93	15d	1	0.58mi
1903 Langford Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,575	$1.05	45d	1	0.61mi
1903 Langford Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,575	$1.05	15d	1	0.61mi
1903 Langford Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,300	$0.87	45d	1	0.61mi
8704 10th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$1,450	$1.02	45d	1	1.10mi
7541 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,500	$1.16	23d	1	1.40mi
7535 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,395	$1.25	45d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $186,950 Active 821 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $186,950 Active 818 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $186,950 Active 817 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $186,950 Active 816 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $186,950 Active 815 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $186,950 Active 812 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $186,950 Active 810 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $186,950 Active 809 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $186,950 Active 808 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $186,950 Active 807 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $186,950 Active 804 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $186,950 Active 803 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $186,950 Active 802 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $186,950 Active 801 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $186,950 Active 800 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $186,950 Active 799 DOM
17. 2026-04-13
    price $186,950 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    The 1,000 square-foot Victoria floor plan is a smart, comfortable start to homeownership with features that make everyday living easy. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasGranite or quartz countertopsKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

18. 2026-02-12
    price $180,950 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    The 1,000 square-foot Victoria floor plan is a smart, comfortable start to homeownership with features that make everyday living easy. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasGranite or quartz countertopsKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

19. 2025-04-23
    price $175,950 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    The 1,000 square-foot Victoria floor plan is a smart, comfortable start to homeownership with features that make everyday living easy. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasGranite or quartz countertopsKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

20. 2025-03-26
    price $168,950 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    The 1,000 square-foot Victoria floor plan is a smart, comfortable start to homeownership with features that make everyday living easy. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasGranite or quartz countertopsKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

21. 2024-09-18
    price $169,950 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    The 1,000 square-foot Victoria floor plan is a smart, comfortable start to homeownership with features that make everyday living easy. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasGranite or quartz countertopsKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

22. 2024-05-20
    price $163,950 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    The 1,000 square-foot Victoria floor plan is a smart, comfortable start to homeownership with features that make everyday living easy. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasGranite or quartz countertopsKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

23. 2024-03-25
    price $166,950 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    The 1,000 square-foot Victoria floor plan is a smart, comfortable start to homeownership with features that make everyday living easy. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasGranite or quartz countertopsKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

24. 2024-03-23
    listed $161,950 Active 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    The 1,000 square-foot Victoria floor plan is a smart, comfortable start to homeownership with features that make everyday living easy. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasGranite or quartz countertopsKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,737
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,472
• − Property taxes: −$2,804
• − Insurance: −$935
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,579
• − Management: −$1,579
• − Depreciation: −$5,439
• Taxable loss: −$3,071
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$737
• After-tax cash flow: $825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,000
• Household income: $61,509
• Rent vs Own: 52.8% rent · 47.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1914.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.87%
• Current HPI: 229.9895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.07%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+15.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $186,950 Zillow
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $180,950 Zillow
• 2025-04-23 Price Changed $175,950 Zillow
• 2025-03-26 Price Changed $168,950 Zillow
• 2024-09-18 Price Changed $169,950 Zillow
• 2024-05-20 Price Changed $163,950 Zillow
• 2024-03-25 Price Changed $166,950 Zillow
• 2024-03-23 Listed $161,950 Zillow