78368 Desert Willow Dr · Desert Palms, CA 92211

$361,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,548 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1994 5,227 sqft lot $233/sqft · 15% below area Est $424k · 15% under $677/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the desirable Sun City Palm Desert Country Club, a premier 55+ gated community, this HUD-owned home offers a spacious and functional layout perfect for comfortable desert living. This home features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, along with a spacious laundry room. As you enter, you are welcomed by a formal living room and a dining room, creating a classic and inviting floor plan. Toward the rear of the home, you'll find a bright family room that opens to the kitchen and breakfast nook, providing a great space for everyday living and entertaining. The living area also includes skylights, allowing for an abundance of natural light throughout the home. The primary bedroom is thoughtfully positioned on the opposite side of the guest bedroom, offering added privacy. It features a walk-in closet with custom hanging rods and shelving. Enjoy all the amenities Sun City Palm Desert has to offer, including golf, clubhouse, pools, fitness center, and a vibrant active adult lifestyle. Don't miss this opportunity to own a home in one of the desert's most sought-after 55+ communities.

Key facts

• Bright family room
• Dining room
• Formal living room

Tags

• SPACIOUS LAUNDRY ROOM
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• BRIGHT FAMILY ROOM
• KITCHEN AND BREAKFAST NOOK
• SKYLIGHTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $361k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-209 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $324k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $341k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $324k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.9% in Desert Palms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#544 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime B+; Watch: housing C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Desert Sands Unified (suburban): math 31% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #199 of 517 in CA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ronald Reagan Elementary (834 students, 53% FRL); Desert Ridge Academy (math 24% / reading 75%, grade C, #98 of 498 statewide, top 21%, 1,030 students, 81% FRL); Shadow Hills High (math 30% / reading 53%, grade F, #498 of 1,170 statewide, top 43%, 1,751 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 636 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,412/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($88k/yr) (locally 1181% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($350k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $361k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $324,121 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.48%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $423,605
• List price: $361,000
• Delta: -14.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37180 Springdale Ave	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,548 (0%)	1mo	$380,000	$245	94
78411 Desert Willow Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,475 (-5%)	2mo	$435,000	$295	88
78590 Pleasant Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,527 (-1%)	3mo	$435,000	$285	84
37454 Medjool Ave	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,578 (+2%)	2mo	$360,000	$228	80
37366 Medjool Ave	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,578 (+2%)	3mo	$410,000	$260	80
37410 Medjool Ave	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,664 (+8%)	2mo	$375,000	$225	72
37498 Medjool	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,366 (-12%)	0mo	$480,000	$351	65
78138 Providence Cir	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,680 (+8%)	1mo	$465,000	$277	63
37818 Turnberry Isle Dr	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,366 (-12%)	0mo	$425,000	$311	55
78776 Gorham Ln	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,730 (+12%)	2mo	$665,000	$384	53
38543 Bent Palm Dr	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,730 (+12%)	1mo	$509,900	$295	48
36598 Fan Palm Way	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,776 (+15%)	3mo	$564,000	$318	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-81,490
• Equity at exit: $53,826

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-125,493
• Equity at exit: $31,213

Cash invested: $101,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92211

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 636
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,412 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,893
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,205/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$677
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$717
• Net cashflow: $-209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,676

Max offer price $324,121

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4	-5% $-107	+0% $-209	+5% $-311	+10% $-413
Rent	-10% $-478	-5% $-344	+0% $-209	+5% $-74	+10% $61
Rate	-1.0pp $-27	-0.5pp $-117	base $-209	+0.5pp $-302	+1.0pp $-397

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,250
• Closing costs: $10,830
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
78338 Desert Willow Dr Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1548	$2,500	$1.61	45d	1	0.02mi
78328 Desert Willow Dr Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1548	$3,400	$2.20	26d	1	0.03mi
78366 Moongold Rd Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1464	$3,750	$2.56	45d	1	0.05mi
78376 Moongold Rd Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1157	$2,480	$2.14	20d	1	0.05mi
78359 Moongold Rd Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1128	$2,500	$2.22	45d	1	0.08mi
78282 Yucca Blossom Dr Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1157	$2,600	$2.25	45d	1	0.08mi
78448 Desert Willow Dr Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1548	$4,750	$3.07	26d	1	0.09mi
78448 Desert Willow Dr Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1548	$4,750	$3.07	45d	1	0.09mi
37358 Westridge Ave Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1157	$4,500	$3.89	45d	1	0.15mi
37468 Westridge Ave Palm Desert, CA	3.0	2.0	1836	$3,850	$2.10	26d	1	0.17mi
78622 Waterfall Dr Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1836	$4,500	$2.45	45d	1	0.28mi
37736 Breeze Way Palm Desert, CA	1.0	1.0	1050	$2,450	$2.33	45d	1	0.30mi
37498 Medjool Ave Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1366	$3,450	$2.53	45d	1	0.31mi
78111 Bovee Cir Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1634	$3,000	$1.84	20d	1	0.39mi
37232 Pineknoll Ave Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1622	$2,950	$1.82	45d	1	0.45mi
37905 Pineknoll Ave Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	2102	$5,000	$2.38	45d	1	0.48mi
36583 Fan Palm Way Palm Desert, CA	3.0	2.0	2042	$5,000	$2.45	45d	1	0.51mi
38071 Brandywine Ave Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1527	$5,500	$3.60	45d	1	0.52mi
36627 Crown St Palm Desert, CA	3.0	2.0	1930	$3,900	$2.02	45d	1	0.54mi
36418 Fan Palm Way Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1634	$3,500	$2.14	45d	1	0.55mi
78786 Gorham Ln Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1836	$3,200	$1.74	26d	1	0.56mi
78871 Edgebrook Ln Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1283	$2,500	$1.95	0d	1	0.65mi
78938 Waterford Ln Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1128	$2,200	$1.95	45d	1	0.70mi
78632 Iron Bark Dr Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1291	$2,650	$2.05	26d	1	0.73mi
78688 Sunrise Canyon Ave Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	2156	$3,500	$1.62	45d	1	0.73mi
35841 Rosemont Dr Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.5	1780	$5,500	$3.09	45d	1	0.76mi
78975 Champagne Ln Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1157	$4,500	$3.89	45d	1	0.77mi
78995 Champagne Ln Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1128	$4,500	$3.99	45d	1	0.78mi
38781 Brandywine Ave Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1475	$2,900	$1.97	45d	1	0.82mi
78872 Canyon Vis Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1229	$2,700	$2.20	4d	1	0.83mi
78047 Freisha Ct Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1578	$4,700	$2.98	45d	1	0.87mi
35875 Donny Cir Palm Desert, CA	3.0	3.0	1900	$5,500	$2.89	45d	1	0.90mi
78383 Sterling Ln Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	2032	$3,300	$1.62	45d	1	0.92mi
78745 Platinum Dr Palm Desert, CA	3.0	3.5	1888	$2,950	$1.56	45d	1	0.93mi
78655 Golden Reed Dr Palm Desert, CA	2.0	3.0	1996	$3,400	$1.70	21d	1	0.95mi
78770 Golden Reed Dr Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	2032	$4,500	$2.21	45d	1	0.96mi
35491 Rosemont Dr Palm Desert, CA	2.0	3.0	2102	$2,500	$1.19	45d	1	1.00mi
78933 Oasis Spring Ln Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1578	$2,600	$1.65	7d	1	1.00mi
35299 Meridia Ave Palm Desert, CA	3.0	3.0	2068	$5,500	$2.66	45d	1	1.02mi
39261 Mirage Cir Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	2032	$2,950	$1.45	26d	1	1.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $677 · $8,124/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Active 1094-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1094 chars)

   Located in the desirable Sun City Palm Desert Country Club, a premier 55+ gated community, this HUD-owned home offers a spacious and functional layout perfect for comfortable desert living. This home features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, along with a spacious laundry room. As you enter, you are welcomed by a formal living room and a dining room, creating a classic and inviting floor plan. Toward the rear of the home, you'll find a bright family room that opens to the kitchen and breakfast nook, providing a great space for everyday living and entertaining. The living area also includes skylights, allowing for an abundance of natural light throughout the home. The primary bedroom is thoughtfully positioned on the opposite side of the guest bedroom, offering added privacy. It features a walk-in closet with custom hanging rods and shelving. Enjoy all the amenities Sun City Palm Desert has to offer, including golf, clubhouse, pools, fitness center, and a vibrant active adult lifestyle. Don't miss this opportunity to own a home in one of the desert's most sought-after 55+ communities.

2. 2026-04-07
   status Pending 1094-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1094 chars)

   Located in the desirable Sun City Palm Desert Country Club, a premier 55+ gated community, this HUD-owned home offers a spacious and functional layout perfect for comfortable desert living. This home features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, along with a spacious laundry room. As you enter, you are welcomed by a formal living room and a dining room, creating a classic and inviting floor plan. Toward the rear of the home, you'll find a bright family room that opens to the kitchen and breakfast nook, providing a great space for everyday living and entertaining. The living area also includes skylights, allowing for an abundance of natural light throughout the home. The primary bedroom is thoughtfully positioned on the opposite side of the guest bedroom, offering added privacy. It features a walk-in closet with custom hanging rods and shelving. Enjoy all the amenities Sun City Palm Desert has to offer, including golf, clubhouse, pools, fitness center, and a vibrant active adult lifestyle. Don't miss this opportunity to own a home in one of the desert's most sought-after 55+ communities.

3. 2026-03-19
   listed $361,000 Active 1094-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1094 chars)

   Located in the desirable Sun City Palm Desert Country Club, a premier 55+ gated community, this HUD-owned home offers a spacious and functional layout perfect for comfortable desert living. This home features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, along with a spacious laundry room. As you enter, you are welcomed by a formal living room and a dining room, creating a classic and inviting floor plan. Toward the rear of the home, you'll find a bright family room that opens to the kitchen and breakfast nook, providing a great space for everyday living and entertaining. The living area also includes skylights, allowing for an abundance of natural light throughout the home. The primary bedroom is thoughtfully positioned on the opposite side of the guest bedroom, offering added privacy. It features a walk-in closet with custom hanging rods and shelving. Enjoy all the amenities Sun City Palm Desert has to offer, including golf, clubhouse, pools, fitness center, and a vibrant active adult lifestyle. Don't miss this opportunity to own a home in one of the desert's most sought-after 55+ communities.

4. 1994-09-16
   soldstatus $160,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,205 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,744 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$538/yr (+$45/mo · 24.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥114°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,945
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,222
• − Property taxes: −$2,205
• − Insurance: −$1,805
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,276
• − Management: −$3,276
• − HOA: −$8,124
• − Depreciation: −$10,502
• Taxable loss: −$8,464
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,031
• After-tax cash flow: $-474/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desert Sands Unified
• NCES district ID: 0611110
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,957
• Composite: 37.77/100
• National rank: #4346
• State rank: #199 of 517 in CA

Livability — Desert Palms

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #544
• US rank: #18121

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment B- Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Desert Palms, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 58,615
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,092
• Household income: $88,477
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1181.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -166.92%
• Current HPI: 233.4619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+125.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Relisted — GPSMLS
• 2026-04-07 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $361,000 GPSMLS
• 1994-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,205 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.