3550 Mitchell Rd #59 · Ceres, CA 95307

$79,950

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured · 31 Days on market

Built 1982 Good condition $102/sqft · 47% above area Est $54k · 47% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 1982 Villa Nova manufactured home featuring 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, located in Westward HO Mobile Home Park with affordable space rent of $795 per month. This inviting home offers a spacious living area filled with natural light and an open flow into the kitchen, creating a comfortable and functional layout. The kitchen provides ample cabinetry, generous counter space, gas range, and refrigerator. Indoor laundry adds everyday convenience. Both bedrooms are well-sized with closet storage, offering flexibility for guests, a home office, or additional living space. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and commuter access, this home presents an excellent oppor

Key facts

• Well-sized bedrooms
• Ample cabinetry
• Spacious living area

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• GENEROUS COUNTER SPACE
• GAS RANGE
• INDOOR LAUNDRY
• WELL-SIZED BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $836 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.8% vs local median 3.8% in Ceres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#923 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D-.
• Ceres Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #303 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,551 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.83%
• DSCR: 2.99
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $54,209
• List price: $79,950
• Delta: 47.48%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3118 Donner Dr #23	0.03mi	2/2.0	780 (-0%)	12mo	$50,000	$64	84
3106 Donner Dr	0.03mi	2/1.0	800 (+2%)	16mo	$104,000	$130	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $40,333
• Equity at exit: $11,921

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.64×
• Total profit: $103,813
• Equity at exit: $6,913

Cash invested: $22,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95307

• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,758 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,199/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $836

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,950

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,988
• Closing costs: $2,398
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2800 Don Pedro Rd Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	816	$1,695	$2.08	3d	1	0.33mi
2717 Roeding Rd Unit 18 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,600	$1.88	14d	1	0.49mi
2717 Roeding Rd Unit 96 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,650	$1.94	44d	1	0.49mi
2717 Roeding Rd Unit 34 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,650	$1.94	14d	1	0.49mi
2717 Roeding Rd Apt 13 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,850	$2.18	21d	1	0.49mi
2717 Roeding Rd Apt 103 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,800	$2.12	21d	1	0.49mi
2717 Roeding Rd Apt 92 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,750	$2.06	44d	1	0.49mi
2714 Pyramid Ave Unit 2714 Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,895	$1.88	23d	1	0.50mi
2121 Moffett Rd Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	44d	1	1.11mi
2250 5th St Unit 11 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,395	$1.99	23d	1	1.13mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,478
• − Property taxes: −$1,199
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,688
• − Management: −$1,688
• − Depreciation: −$2,326
• Taxable income: $9,317
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,236
• After-tax cash flow: $7,799/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 1982 Villa Nova manufactured home in Westward HO Mobile Home Park is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed to modernize and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Dated and could be replaced
• Minor Bathroom cabinets — Dated and could be replaced
• Minor Landscaping — Overgrown plants need trimming

Value-add opportunities

• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — Modernizes and increases appeal
• Both Replace bathroom cabinets — Modernizes and increases appeal
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Dated and could be replaced	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom cabinets · Dated and could be replaced	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Overgrown plants need trimming	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — Modernizes and increases appeal ↑
• Both Replace bathroom cabinets — Modernizes and increases appeal ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ceres Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608130
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,178
• Composite: 27.96/100
• National rank: #6858
• State rank: #303 of 517 in CA

Livability — Ceres

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #923
• US rank: #24224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ceres, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 46,310
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,310
• Household income: $80,627
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1102.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 34% White 23% Asian 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 49% Other Indo-European 7% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -362.75%
• Current HPI: 307.5192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B