10811 W Michael Dr · Peoria, AZ 85373

$154,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 510 sqft · Manufactured public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1970 6,300 sqft lot $303/sqft · 51% above area Est $205k · 25% under $28/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mobile home on owned land, all ages community!

Key facts

• 6,300 sq ft lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1970

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $154k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($426/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.3% in Peoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#14 in AZ, #3,603 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D, health & safety F.
• Peoria Unified School District (4237) (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #64 of 249 in AZ (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $154k implies a 181% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,188 (7.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.98%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,000
• List price: $154,500
• Delta: -24.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-22,738
• Equity at exit: $23,036

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-16,733
• Equity at exit: $13,358

Cash invested: $43,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85373

• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,432 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$810
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$193 /mo · $2,318/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,387

Max offer price $154,500

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $89	+0% $35	+5% $-18	+10% $-71
Rent	-10% $-78	-5% $-21	+0% $35	+5% $92	+10% $149
Rate	-1.0pp $113	-0.5pp $75	base $35	+0.5pp $-5	+1.0pp $-45

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,625
• Closing costs: $4,635
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10134 W Mohawk Ln Peoria, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,299	$1.57	44d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,500 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,500 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,500 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,500 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,500 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,500 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,500 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,500 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,500 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $154,500 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $154,500 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,500 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,500 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,500 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-03-28
    listed $154,500 Active 46-char remark

    Show marketing remark (46 chars)

    Mobile home on owned land, all ages community!

16. 2026-03-26
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,654
• − Property taxes: −$2,318
• − Insurance: −$772
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,375
• − Management: −$1,375
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$4,495
• Taxable loss: −$2,142
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$514
• After-tax cash flow: $940/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Peoria Unified School District (4237)
• NCES district ID: 0406250
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,171
• Composite: 34.62/100
• National rank: #5152
• State rank: #64 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Peoria

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #3603

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A Cost of living C- Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Peoria, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 206,687
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 20,254
• Household income: $72,063
• Rent vs Own: 11.6% rent · 88.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 383.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -327.80%
• Current HPI: 261.3749
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+180.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Listed $154,500 ARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $284 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.